Sep
15

The cost of AIG’s demise

Founded primarily to do business in China by Cornelius Starr (by all accounts both a good person and terrific businessman), insurance giant AIG has long been among the largest property and casualty insurers in the world.
That history may have a final chapter, written this week. Some reports indicate AIG may not make it past Thursday. At this moment the stock is trading at $12 a share, down 30% today and 83% from its 52 week high. The share price is now trading well below the company’s (reported) book value of $29 a share. That book value appears to be highly suspect, as it includes $20 billion in subprime mortgage securities, carried on the books at a discount of 31%.
The fall of AIG has a human dimension that is rather close to home; I worked at AIG in the mid-eighties, and know a number of individuals who continue to get their paychecks from the company. Most have a good chunk of their savings in the company’s heretofore terrific employee stock plan – savings that have all but disappeared as AIG craters. AIG’s senior management is rough, brutally competitive, arrogant – and historically very successful. That success has been delivered by the company’s 116,000 employees, many of whom now find their previously rosy financial future has been destroyed.
To show how fast things move, AIG stock is now at $5.89, fifteen minutes after I started this post.
The trigger for a collapse would be the threat by ratings agencies to downgrade AIG’s credit rating – a move that would allow AIG’s counterparties to pull their capital and business out of the company. Many of AIG’s insureds require the company to maintain an “A” rating from AM Best or similar rating agency, and if the rating declines the policyholders have the right, and in some cases the legal obligation, to cancel their coverage and move it to an A rated firm.
2008 has been awful for AIG – the company lost over $18 billion so far, due in part to the drop in value of the company’s investments in mortgage-backed securities and other credit-related investment declines. The credit market collapse – which has affected several big banks, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers, is also hammering AIG.
I’ll be thinking about the potential implications of this mess more later today, especially for what it may mean for the soft market and what parts of the company may be sold off by an acquirer.
In the meantime, it may well be that a collapse of AIG would cause the insurance market to harden rather quickly, as current policyholders scramble to obtain coverage, brokers push their clients to buy only from insurers with very low credit risk exposure, and insurers raise rates to add capital to bolster their financials.


Sep
15

CMS, Work comp, and implants

There’s yet another reason for work comp payers to pay a lot more attention to surgical implant pricing – CMS has reserved the right to use its own methodology if it finds the payer’s methodology lacking.
WorkCompCentral reported piece [sub req] on “>today “if the workers’ compensation medical set-aside proposal includes the cost of an implantable device but does not include enough of the CMS required cost information about the device – and it is determined an implantable device such as a spinal cord stimulator is needed – CMS will use its own methodology to determine the cost of the device.”
CMS’ methodology is discussed here. (scroll to bottom of page and click on “august” download)
The folks at WorkersCompInsider have an excellent piece on implants and motivations of (some of) the physicians that use them.
I doubt the ‘look at what these cost us in the past’ methodology is going to fly with the good folks at CMS. They will certainly want something more substantial, something based on actual cost and not conjecture and what was paid in the past.
btw, WorkCompCentral is one of the go-to sources for comp-related information and news.


Sep
12

Is Aetna buying Coventry?

Could be.
For a couple days there have been rumors swirling around Hartford (Aetna’s hometown) that the big insurer may be looking at Coventry’s books ahead of a possible acquisition.
With Coventry’s stock still relatively low, and at a P/E under 10, the company looks like a good deal. CVH’s stock bounced up a couple bucks early Wednesday, and has stayed in a fairly narrow range since then. There has also been significant volume in options markets, volume that appears to indicate some investors’ sense that CVH is in play.
Aetna and Coventry do have an existing, if really tiny, relationship – Coventry uses Aetna’s work comp network in many states. I don’t know the dollar value of that deal, but doubt it is much more than ten million annually, if that. That’s not terribly significant at ‘mother Aetna’ where annual revenues are over $30 billion.
If Coventry is on the block, I’m not so sure Aetna’s a serious option. CVH stumbled recently after missing their earnings forecast earlier this year, a miss that was painful both to investors and management who had cultivated a (to that point well-deserved) reputation for consistently hitting their numbers. Coventry is particularly strong in the smaller employer market, and their ability and expertise in that segment could be helpful to Aetna if it seeks to grow its small employer market share. Coventry does have a growing individual block, but Aetna has already expanded its individual business significantly and is now in 29 states.
Coventry is not a national account company, a market that has been Aetna’s sweet spot for years. Its new markets, which tend to be in secondary metro areas such as Oklahoma City, still represent relatively few lives.
Lastly, Coventry’s provider contracts are certainly not as good as Aetna’s.
Which leaves us with the question – why would Aetna buy Coventry? The only real reason I can see is a strategic one – to gain more strength in the small employer end of the market. There’s always the American League East (see Red Sox/Yankees bidding wars for free agents) strategy – if Aetna buys it Anthem can’t – but Aetna is not a company that would spend corporate assets just to keep a property away from another competitor.
If you look at Aetna’s acquisitions in the past, you’ll notice there have not been many. And the deals that have been done – PPOM and Schaller Anderson, have been highly selective and oriented towards acquiring new skills, new market expertise, and new/better technology – not health plan acquisitions.
Is an Aetna-Coventry deal possible? Sure. But highly unlikely.


Sep
12

What’s up in work comp?

After spending the last part of last week and the better part of this one preparing for two major presentations on ‘US health care 2009’ (both requiring predictions about health reform efforts and results thereof) I’ve been anxious to get back to the comparatively sedate world of workers comp.
Here, in no particular order, are a few of the ‘not enough for a full post’ items. There’s more going on which I’ll focus on next week.
The good news is rates continue to decline in most states, with the notable exception of California (where if rates had gotten much lower insurers would be paying employers). The so-far not terribly bad hurricane season has certainly helped; here’s hoping Ike and colleagues stay out at sea, away from the shipping lanes and fishing grounds.
As long as cat(astrophic) costs stay modest we can expect the market softening to gradually taper off and then start to harden – say this time next year.
The good news has been the result of a continued decline in frequency, payer success in managing ancillary medical costs (particularly drugs and physical medicine), and relatively low wage inflation. Oh, and that’s all been minor compared to the impact of the dramatic cost reductions in CA (which are due in part to tight limits on the number of physical medicine visits).
Florida has also been enjoying several consecutive years of rate reductions, brought on (at least in part) by the 2003 reforms. Word from the Sunshine State is that one of the key components of the reform law, limitations on plaintiff attorney fees, may be overturned. If that happens, it’s ‘Katie bar the door’, as the plaintiff bar in FL has long been champing at the bit to return to the halcyon days pre-reform, when they could bill hourly fees at will. Yikes.
While rate reductions and soft markets have been great for employers, TPAs, managed care firms, and carriers are having challenges. Several TPAs have closed shop, been acquired, or suffered dramatic losses in business, and most (particularly in Florida and other states with big premium drops over several years) are doing their best to hang on and hope things turn around soon. CorVel has added a couple TPA customers – one an existing managed care client and another new business. These deals have also required CorVel to do quite a bit of programming and IT development, work that was responsible for higher costs for the company in the most recent quarter.
I remain skeptical about CorVel’s business model and attempt to sell to, while competing with, TPAs.
On the managed care side, several network companies are vying to be industry leader Coventry’s chief competitor, with little success to show for all their effort – so far. This may change soon, as Coventry’s continued heavy-handed, my-way-or-highway approach to customer relations is wearing a bit thin. One of their larger self-insured employer customers was handed an eight point rate increase. Not percentage but points. Word is the folks delivering these new rates, contracts and addenda are not exactly comfortable doing so. Coventry has also been expanding its staff, adding long-time industry vet Pat Sullivan in an effort to improve its image in the market.
A new firm (NovaNet) announced it’s presence just this week; when I get more info will pass it on. I would note that their press release talks about some direct provider contracts and rental of other networks; there are several other PPOs with similar models already in the space. One observation – the company touts its huge network of docs – while this may be an asset in group health, the huge network model is losing followers in the comp space of late.
MedRisk has been awarded the contract to handle the Pennsylvania state fund’s entire managed care program, a major win for the company. (MedRisk is an HSA consulting client).
Internal sources at the ‘old’ Fair Isaac, now Mitchell Medical bill review firm report the new owners are investing, listening, and supporting their efforts to revamp the WC bill review products. That’s a good thing and bodes well for MM’s future in work comp.


Sep
12

Reader criticism

My post yesterday was over the top. Several readers were angry/frustrated/disappointed, and I accept – and appreciate their criticism.
Keep it coming.


Sep
11

Issues vs. personalities

The presidential election looks like it is going to be a battle of personalities or issues. Bob Laszewski notes that the lipstick issue is a winning one for the GOP while the Democrats want to keep the election focused on ‘real’ issues – such as health care and the economy.
For now, it looks like the electorate is living in la la land – more concerned about appearances than reality.


Sep
10

The case for Medicare for All

I’ve been rather vocal in my advocacy for a private insurance-based universal health care program. My thinking has been that once insurers stop employing all that expensive brain power to select risks and cancel policies, they’ll be able to actually work on ‘managing care’.
That’s the idea, anyway.
Unfortunately, my single payer advocate friends have had lots of ammunition to shoot holes in my argument, ammunition provided by the same health plans I’ve been pushing as solutions to the health care crisis.
And every time there’s another report of stock price manipulation, retroactive termination of coverage, or refusal to cover appropriate care, my argument weakens.
Today’s hit comes not in the form of another scandal or more evidence of incompetence, but rather from Health Affairs. The points made by the authors can be summarized thusly:
– non-single payer programs incur much higher costs due to the work inherent in eligibility determination and vetting.
– additional expenses incurred for advertising, marketing, PR, and overhead (that would include consultants like me) would be unnecessary
– the elimination of medical underwriting would simplify matters and prevent cost-shifting (true, but so would guaranteed issue and community rating and mandated universal coverage)
– provider administrative hassles would be greatly reduced – instead of dozens of arrangements, contracts, and provider manuals there would be one main one.
I’d add a biggie. WIth relatively minor exceptions, today’s for-profit health insurers are doing a lousy job ‘managing’ care. Strike that – they aren’t doing much at all. What they are doing is managing reimbursement. The only large national payer that is doing much in this area is Aetna, and they have quite a ways to go.
Here’s hoping the mainline health plans start providing me with compelling arguments in favor of their continued existence.
And please, no citation-free ideological rants against ‘socialized medicine‘. Single payer is NOT socialized medicine, and screaming about the ‘failure of socialized medicine’ is getting tiresome.


Sep
9

The free market fallacy in health care

Free marketeers have been lauding Gov. Sarah Palin’s efforts to eliminate Alaska’s restrictions on new health care technology and facilities, calling it a push for “less regulation of health care providers and more competition”.
This blind faith in the marketplace to somehow solve the American health care crisis demonstrates not only a superficial understanding of health care, but an ignorance that would increase costs and reduce quality.
One excellent example of how wrong these ideologues are comes from KFF. The good folk at Kaiser report that:
“Physicians in 2007 ordered 68.7 million CT scans, more than three times the number ordered in 1995 [emphasis added], according to IMV Medical Information Division. In addition, a 2007 study by McKinsey Global Institute found that the number of CT scan machines in the U.S. had increased to 24,000 since the first apparatus was purchased in the U.S. in 1973, which is nearly three times the number of machines available in most other industrialized countries.
…the declining cost of the devices has encouraged more private practice physicians and independent imaging centers to install their own machines, the Times reports. According to the Times, manufacturers of the scanning machines, such as Siemens, “tout the ease of making money with the devices.” A Siemens marketing brochure notes that two scans daily generate enough revenue to cover the cost of the machine and its operation over a five-year period, while 10 scans daily can generate more than $400,000 in annual profits.”
And let us not forget the increased health risk from excessive radiation doses…
The CT scan issue is merely the latest in a long line of well-documented, rigorously-researched studies that clearly and unequivocally prove supply drives health care costs. The more health care facilities, beds, technology, the more physicians and care givers there are, the higher the cost and the worse the outcomes..
The authors of the Dartmouth Atlas have done an outstanding job in this area. Here is just a sampling of their findings:

  • the U.S. could lower health care costs substantially if the highest intensity hospitals adopted the practices of the nation’s best performing hospitals.
  • where medical decisions are most discretionary…admission rates are strongly correlated with the local supply of hospital beds
  • higher spending and greater use of supply-sensitive care is not associated with better care
  • more care does not necessarily mean better care. In fact, more hospitalizations and more procedures among similar populations resulted in higher mortality than for populations that received more conservative care.
  • and the killer – any expansion of capacity will result in subtle shifts of clinical judgment toward greater intensity of care

Yet some persist in ignoring facts in favor of ideology. A piece in that bastion of intellectual rigor, the American Spectator, claims “Sarah Palin means it when she says she’s in politics to “challenge the status quo and to serve the common good.” Moreover, her push for greater competition also demonstrates that she understands the potential of the free market to cure much of what ails American health care.”
Actually, Palin’s statements don’t do that at all. Her actions show her to be ignorant of cause-and-effect, blind to the facts, and willing to sacrifice the good of Alaskans on the altar of the free market.
thanks to FierceHealthcare for the heads-up.


Sep
9

Government health care – good enough for McCain

Igor at ThinkProgress brought up a stunningly obvious point –
Why is John McCain so adamantly opposed to Government health care?
For most of his life he’s been covered by ‘government health care‘. It’s kept him hale and hearty, taken care of his four melanoma episodes and other illnesses and injuries, allowed him to keep up with a woman 18 years his junior, and he certainly hasn’t lacked for energy and enthusiasm on the campaign trail.
McCain thinks this isn’t good enough for the rest of us; “My health care plan will make it easier for more Americans to find and keep good health care insurance. His plan [Obama’s] will force small businesses to cut jobs, reduce wages, and force families into a government run health care system where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.”
(As opposed to, say, today’s private health plans, where a bureaucrat stands between you and your doctor.)
Actually, McCain has misspoken; Obama’s plan specifically calls for and encourages the use of private health plans, with the government plan as a backup (much as it is today for the poor, elderly, and disabled). That wasn’t McCain’s only ‘misstatement’.
Obama’s plan specifically exempts small businesses, does not force adults into health plans, and provides financial help to small businesses offering health insurance in the form of a refundable tax credit of up to half the cost of premiums. And, Obama allows anyone with insurance today to keep it.
What does this mean for you?
Bottom line, Obama’s plan would cover 18 million more Americans, while a million Americans would lose coverage under McCain’s plan.
On second thought, maybe McCain does need another check-up…


Sep
7

Why don’t Republicans want employment-based health insurance?

I’ve been considering why Republican politicians and pundits favor de-linking employment and health insurance. Portability is certainly a good reason; some workers can’t leave their jobs for fear they will lose coverage, or won’t be able to get new coverage due to a pre-existing condition. That interferes with the free flow of labor, and may well inhibit economic growth and prosperity.
The high cost of US health care is certainly worth mentioning, and especially the impact of that high cost on competitiveness. American manufacturers and service companies are at a big disadvantage simply because they have to pay a lot towards health care (via premiums and taxes, driven by the world’s most expensive health care).
Linking employment to insurance also means when people lose their jobs, they lose their coverage (except for those who can afford to pay the whole premium for the maximum 18 months allowed under COBRA). This last got me wondering – is there a correlation between unemployment and the President’s political party?
Turns out there is, and it isn’t what many suspect. In fact, unemployment under Republican presidents is significantly higher than when a Democrat is in the White House.
A study by Elliot Parker of the University of Nevada, Reno, found that unemployment at the end of presidential terms was significantly higher for Republicans (6.0%) than for Democrats (5.2%). And, the Unemployment Rate actually went up under Republicans (+0.3%), while it decreased under Democrats (-0.4%) Parker used the period from 1949 to present for his analysis, noting that the period prior to that date was heavily influenced by the Depression and two world wars. (but if you include the period from 1929 on, the numbers are actually worse for Republican administrations)
The reason for the differential seems pretty obvious – when economies perform better, jobs are added. As Christopher Hill at Boom2Bust writes;
“Real GDP Growth Rate (annual average) under Republican administrations now [for the preiod 1949 to 2005] stood at 2.9% and Democratic administrations at 4.2%. Real GDP Growth Rate Per Capita was 1.7% for the Republicans and 2.9% for the Democrats. These results prompted Dr. Parker to conclude that “the economy has grown significantly faster under Democratic administrations, and more than twice as fast in per-capita terms.”[emphasis added]
Parker also considered whether there was a lag effect – policies can take time to make their impact felt, time that may influence results. As Mr. Hill put it; “The professor found that even with up to four years of lagged effects, there was no evidence that the economy performed better under Republicans.”
It’s not just unemployment and economic growth. Parker’s research found that by many measures, Democratic administrations delivered better economic results than their Republican counterparts – Dow Jones Index, weekly wage indices, corporate profits…
This is one of those great validations of the internet – start looking for something and you’ll be surprised what you learn. Is it possible Republicans want to delink employment and insurance due to their poor record on the economy? I don’t think so.
And as their record indicates, they certainly wouldn’t publicize it.
Thanks to Joe Lyles for getting me thinking about this.