Aug
17

Top ten misconceptions about health reform

There are definitely more than ten, but here’s my list.
10. A federal death panel will decide who gets care and who gets ‘suicide-d’. This has been debunked almost as many times as it’s been ‘bunked’, Section 1233 of America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 amends the Social Security Act to ensure that advance care planning will be covered if a patient requests it from a qualified care provider [America’s Affordable Health Choices Act, Sec. 1233]. According to an analysis of the bill produced by the three relevant House committees, the section “[p]rovides coverage for consultation between enrollees and practitioners to discuss orders for life-sustaining treatment. Instructs CMS to modify ‘Medicare & You’ handbook to incorporate information on end-of-life planning resources and to incorporate measures on advance care planning into the physician’s quality reporting initiative.” (Media Matters)
9. Illegal aliens will get free coverage. Nope, not true. In fact, none of the plans currently before Congress would allow the federal government to provide health coverage for illegal immigrants. The federal government does not currently provide coverage for illegal immigrants.
8. It’s deficit neutral. President Obama has repeatedly claimed the current health care reform initiative will be paid for by savings, increased taxes on wealthier Americans, and reductions in Medicare Advantage and other payments. I doubt it. Providing coverage to tens of millions of folks who don’t have it now will increase utilization – just like it did for Part D – and we can probably expect prices to go up too.
7. Health reform will lead to rationing. Again, I guess it depends on your definition of ‘rationing’. If ‘rationing’ will reduce the amount of unnecessary and probably hurtful care, that’s a great result. According to the Dartmouth Atlas, about a third of the health care delivered to Americans is not necessary and wasteful. I’m fine with eliminating that care – even if that means I can’t get an MRI on my twisted ankle. That’s not rationing, that’s good medicine. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening anytime soon. And therein lies the problem with the ‘deficit neutral’ argument – more coverage will mean more services which will cost more money, driving up the nation’s health care cost.
6. The free market which can solve the problem without government intervention. I’d agree (and have stated before) that the private insurance market could fix our health insurance problem, but there has to be a market first. The reality today is that almost every market is already dominated by a very few health plans, so much so that in most markets, there really is very little market competition amongst health plans. Until and unless we have open competition, we won’t have choice.
5. This is socialism. Well, I guess it depends on your definition of ‘socialism’. According to generally accepted definitions, socialized medicine is when the government employs the doctors and owns the hospitals and provides the insurance. None of the bills under consideration are anywhere close to that -which, BTW, exists in a relatively few countries like the UK and Cuba. In the proposed system, private insurers would continue to provide insurance to most non-seniors, Medicare would continue, and providers would remain independent.
4. My tax dollars would be used for abortions. Yes and no. Federal dollars for abortions are currently quite restricted, and would continue to be. Coverage for abortion services would remain only for rape, incest and to protect the mother’s life.
3. We should just can all the private insurers and go to single payer, which will save lots of money in administrative expense. Not true. Private insurers have to account for and report future liabilities; the government doesn’t. The ultimate liability for Medicare and Medicaid is in the tens of trillions of dollars. Moreover, the admin expense argument is unfair as the Medicare population is markedly different from the demographic served by private insurers. First, there’s only one enrollment per lifetime. Second, there are minimal marketing/advertising expenses. Third, there are no premium taxes or other costs of compliance. No, while admin expenses would be lower, the huge savings touted by single payer advocates result from an unfair analysis.
2. A public plan would crush private insurers and we’d all end up covered by the public plan. Not even close to the truth. Some continue to complain private health plans will not be able to compete with a public option as the public plan will just dictate pricing to providers, and public plans wouldn’t have the capital and financial stability requirements forced on private plans. They’re half right. Re the capital requirements, they’ve got a valid argument. As we know all too well with Medicare and Medicaid, the Feds (and we taxpayers) have an ultimate unfunded liability in excess of $22 trillion, but that figure doesn’t show up on any formal financial statements.
But when they complain about pricing, that’s a red herring – for two reasons.
First, physicians don’t have to accept Medicare or Medicaid, and wouldn’t have to agree to any ‘public option’ pricing. In fact many docs don’t accept Medicare today. As participants in the free market, they are able to opt out if they feel the compensation is too low – and many do.
The other factor is just as simple – pricing is but one component of the health cost equation. The others are utilization and frequency. ‘Utilization’ is the number of a specific type of services used by a patient, while ‘Frequency’ is the percentage/number of patients that use that type of service. And Medicare has not shown any ability to address either of these two factors.
1. And the top misperception about health reform – it will mean a bureaucrat will determine my health care, not me and my doctor. Uhhh, what do you think happens now?
insurance%20card.jpg
Pull out your health insurance card, and turn it over. See the phone numbers on the back? Those connect you (first to voice mail hell), then eventually, if you’re lucky and very persistent, to a ‘bureaucrat’, albeit one employed by your health insurer. They might even be located offshore


Aug
14

Swiftboating health reform

Jonathan Cohn writing at ‘The New Republic’ has summarized what’s happening with health reform better than I could. Here’s an excerpt:
“Exhibit number one is the treatment of Eziekel Emanuel, the distinguished oncologist and bioethicist who is working on health reform at the Office of Management and Budget. In the course of his writings, which span academia and popular publications, he has argued forcefully and clearly against physician-assisted suicide. Yet somehow Emanuel finds himself accused of–wait for it–advocating physician assisted suicide…The attack on Emanuel is part of a broader offensive–an effort to persuade anxious Americans that health reformers will harm people who are seriously ill or who have disabilities…Every year, millions of families struggle to get affordable medical care for themselves or their loved ones–and end up in financial ruin, going without medical care, or some combination of the two. Many of these cases involve diseases like cerebral palsy or Parkinson’s–or other conditions that require ongoing, expensive care.
Insurance companies try their best to avoid taking on these people. Apply for an individual policy with one of these pre-existing conditions and an insurer will reject you if it can. If it can’t–if, say, you’re lucky enough to get coverage through an employer–you may well find the insurance doesn’t cover what you need.
Changing that isn’t merely a by-product of reform. It’s the whole point of reform. The plan Obama and his allies support would make coverage available to everybody regardless of pre-existing medical conditions. It would require insurers to cover a broad range of medical services. And it would police insurers to make sure they didn’t try to get around those requirements.”
Bob Laszewski has a similar perspective.
“Sarah Palin want-to-be Betsy McCaughey, who had her last 15 minutes of fame during the Clinton health care debate, claims Dr. Emanuel endorses age discrimination for health care services–basically saying he wants to pull grandma’s plug.
NICE actually makes the British system’s tough decisions so many worry might have to be made here. For example, last year NICE issued guidance rejecting kidney cancer drugs Sutent (sunitinib), Avastin (bevacizumab), Nexavar (sorafenib) and Torisel (temsirolimus). This leaves patients with only one treatment option – interferon. The reason is these drugs only extended the life of the patient a very few months but they cost about $200,000 to keep a patient alive that long.
Dr. Emanuel is one of the most widely respected health care ethicists in the country. The issues McCaughey is using were quoted out of context and had to do with one of the things Dr. Emanuel gets to think about at the National Institutes of Health–what to do when you don’t have enough organ donors for those who want organs.”
The question that opponents of reform are ignoring is this: “what happens to me and my family if Iose my health insurance? Am I confident that I will get the health care coverage I need at a price I can afford? And when prices double in ten years, will that still be the case?
Our current health care system is unsustainable. Opponents of reform who do nothing but lie and have no real solutions will have no one to blame but themselves if reform fails and they can’t get insurance or care.


Aug
13

If health reform fails, part 2 – the providers

Yesterday we examined the potential impact on insurers and insureds of a failure to pass meaningful comprehensive health reform . Today we’ll look at the effect on providers.
Again, we’ll leave aside the possibility of individual bills addressing physician compensation under Medicare, a superMedPAC and other potential measures.
As health care costs increase, the number of employers who can afford coverage drops, as does the percentage of their workers willing to pay their share of the premium. And without meaningful reform that includes cost controls, there is zero evidence that costs will moderate on their own. While the cost cycle will persist, without structural change in the form of changed incentives for payers and revamped reimbursement by Medicare we’re stuck with the same underlying trend of a couple points higher than overall inflation.
The latest data indicate this is already happening, as the largest health plans lost over four hundred thousand commercial members in total in the first quarter.
We’re looking at fewer working families with insurance, but there’s another problem – as employers change to high deductible plans, or increase the deductibles on current plans, employees will have to come up with more cash to pay for their care before their insurance kicks in. Fact is, almost one-fifth of Health Savings Accounts don’t have any funds in them, and most aren’t fully funded (the average account balance was about $950 for individual accounts and $1500 for family as of Q3 2008). Moreover, that only counts the folks who are enrolled in HSA-type plans who’ve opened accounts; according to a GAO study, in 2007 almost half of HSA-eligible plan enrollees hadn’t opened an account.
The net? More patients without coverage, and a sizable chunk of those with ‘coverage’ don’t have funds to pay their deductibles. The result? More indigent care, more unpaid bills, and more trips to the ER instead of primary care doc visits, trips that won’t be compensated and will therefore result in more losses for hospitals and cost-shifting to the shrinking population of commercial insured patients.
Specialties that will be particularly hard hit include orthopedics, ophthalmology, dermatology, ob/gyn, neurology, physical therapy and neurosurgery. With many of their patients presenting with non-emergent conditions, these specialists will likely see a decline in patients as those without coverage put off care – that aching knee, slightly blurry vision, skin blotch or loss of sensation will be ignored as much as possible as long as possible. Ob/gyns will see an increase in indigent care, and a potentially considerable growth in patients covered by Medicaid (a notoriously poor payer in many states).
The consolidation in the payer industry (noted yesterday) will shift more bargaining power to healthplans, especially for physician contracts. Hospitals are a little better off, as many have gotten pretty good at negotiating with insurers and their proxies. But for those providers in markets with two or one dominant payer, rate negotiations will become increasingly one-sided.


Aug
12

What happens without health reform?

We know that much of the town hall opposition has been funded by right-wing advocacy groups. What we don’t know is what will happen if they are successful in stopping Congress’ efforts to pass and the President’s to sign a comprehensive health care reform bill.
I’ll leave aside the potential impact of bills addressing a ‘superMedPAC’, changes to Medicare physician reimbursement, and the possibility that HHS will get a better deal from big pharma. What will our country’s health system look like in five years if there isn’t reform?
Today we’ll look at insurers and families, tomorrow providers and the ‘macro’ impact.
Impact on insurers
Without reform of the insurance underwriting and rating laws, insurers will seek to be even more selective about the policies they write. That’s already starting to happen, and is a major reason the larger health plans are losing members this year for the first time in recent history. They just don’t want the ‘risk’ that someone will have a claim. Healthplans will also continue to ‘churn’ their books – to try to dump policies that have been in place for more than three years, as that is about when claims start to pile up.
Can’t blame them, as many are for-profit and therefore more committed to shareholder returns than patient care. That is not a value statement – it is a statement of fact.
The number of viable healthplans will continue to shrink. As a mature industry, the healthplan business has been steadily consolidating – if anything that will accelerate. And no, the free market will not increase ‘choice’; we already have a free market for commercial plans (and Medicare Advantage and Part D) and in most areas there are at most two plans to choose from.
Smaller healthplans will find it increasingly hard to compete, as the big plans get ever-better discounts from providers, who have to make up the lost revenue by cost-shifting to the smaller plans with less clout. As their costs go up, so will their rates, until they either wither away or get bought out by the big plans.
PPO plans will get ‘nichier and nichier’. Their higher medical costs will push members towards HMO-type plans, making it harder for employers with widely-spread workers to get affordable coverage unless they buy insurance from one of the big plans that operates in all the areas the employer has bodies. Inevitably, some workers will be left with poor coverage…
Impact on individuals and families
Bureaucrats at insurance companies will still be making decisions about what doctors you can see and how much they’ll pay and what they’ll cover and what they won’t. You’ll have to ask permission for services, and hope and pray they get paid. Those same bureaucrats will tell you they’re interested in keeping you healthy, but that’s only till they can churn you out of their book.
There will continue to be a hodgepodge of state-specific insurance mandates, rules, regulations, and enforcement mechanisms, as well as benefit designs and limitations. I’d note that under some of the reform bills under consideration, states will maintain a very significant regulatory role, but the benefit design and other ‘customer-facing’ issues should be simplified.
But the big problem is this – it will get harder and harder for individuals and employers to get insurance coverage.
Here’s one all-too-common scenario. The breadwinner loses her/his job, and with it health insurance coverage. They find a new job, but that company doesn’t offer benefits as they are too expensive. So, Ms/Mr Breadwinner, responsible person that s/he is, tries to buy an individual policy. There are several insurers that write those policies, so the applications go in – followed by requests for medical records, documents, and attestations signed by their physicians. Oops, one of the family has a mild case of asthma, and dad takes cholesterol medication, and mom saw a counselor a few years ago after her dad died.
Three insurers decline to offer a proposal, and the one that does will exclude any cardiovascular coverage for dad, any pulmonary issues for junior, and mom won’t be covered for any psychiatric or anxiety or related issues. And, oh, the policy is 50% more expensive than the original quote. Leaving Mr/Ms Breadwinner to decide if they want to come up with $22,000 a year for less-than-full coverage and their HSA deductible (in 2009 dollars)…
Unfortunately there isn’t any governmental assistance, so the Breadwinners, who make $75k a year, are looking at spending almost a third of their gross income on health insurance – insurance that doesn’t cover their most likely health problems.
Think this is hyperbole? You’re wrong. This is happening every day in every community, and if health reform doesn’t happen, it is going to happen more and more often.
Unlike the right-wing fear death panels, this is reality.


Aug
11

What the town hall protesters should be yelling about

I’ve been taking flak this week from several sources about inserting my ‘political’ views into this blog.
Guilty.
I’m also wondering why I didn’t hear similar complaints a few weeks ago when I was pillorying the Democrats [here here and here] for failing to include anything remotely resembling real cost containment in either the House or Senate Finance bills. Which is exactly what the “Town Hall Protesters” should be yelling about.
The problem with the Dems’ health reform efforts to date have nothing to do with death panels, rationing, government control of health care or any other right wing myth. We can’t afford to expand coverage unless we control costs. Covering another 35-45 million folks without controlling cost will devastate the budget, force large tax increases, and take funds away from infrastructure, energy, education, defense, and other critical needs.
That’s where the Dems are vulnerable – another entitlement expansion we can’t afford. Yet for some reason the protesters aren’t screaming at the top of their lungs about cost.
Are they not concerned about cost? Do they think a big new entitlement program is less of a problem than funding abortions or so-called death panels? Is the fate of Trig Palin more of an issue than the potential for vastly increased deficits? Are protesters OK with massive cost increases, as long as there aren’t death panels or comparative effectiveness research?
Of course not.
If they stopped for even a moment and thought about the Democrats’ proposed reform initiatives, the trillion dollar cost would become the front-and-center issue. Why haven’t they?
Perhaps it is because the opponents of health care reform don’t want anyone to start thinking about cost – after all, controlling cost means lower revenues and profits for hospitals, doctors, medical device companies, insurers, pharma, and other stakeholders. Sure, some will come out just fine, but the majority are terrified that meaningful, real cost controls will take big bites out of their top lines. But they can’t say this in public, even if they’re chewing their nails to the elbow in boardrooms.
So instead they are funding these fake ‘grassroots’ movements using made-up and patently false claims to scare the bejesus out of regular folks who will then (hopefully) kill any hope of health reform, thereby preserving the industry stakeholders’ business models.
I don’t have the resources to find out who the funders are behind Americans for Prosperity, Patients United Now (PUN – get it?) and many of the other groups. But there is ample evidence that one of the primary anti-reform groups is headed by Rick Scott, former CEO of hospital company HCA. The founder of Conservatives for Patients’ Rights, Scott has hired the same PR group responsible for the Swift Boat campaign to gin up resistance to reform.
Scott is a sleazeball. While he headed up HCA, the company was fined $1.7 billion for Medicare and Medicaid fraud; the company grew by buying up as many hospitals as possible in a market then shut down selected facilities while jacking up prices at the remaining hospitals. Great for his investors, not great for patients, employers, or taxpayers in HCA-dominated markets.
He’s also an investor in a Florida walk-in clinic operation, Solantic.
I’m sure there are other Rick Scotts out there, using their ill-gotten gains to encourage ignorant folks to rally against health care reform. I just wish I had the time to track them all down.


Aug
10

Palin on health care reform – she’s not the worst

Former Alaska Gov Sarah Palin (R) has added her own voice to those decrying the current health care reform proposals – and in so doing has added yet more evidence that she is not credible.
According to the unimpeachable Fox News, “Who will suffer the most when they ration care? The sick, the elderly, and the disabled, of course,” the former vice Republican presidential candidate wrote on her Facebook page, which has nearly 700,000 supporters.
“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil,” Palin wrote.”
(Fox’ pundits went on to agree with Palin; here‘s one “death panel” quote from one of the ‘experts’ at Fox.) Fortunately, the good folks at ABC did their homework, identifying the source of the ‘death panel’ BS – our old friend Betsy McGaughey.
Just hours after her initial wacko proclamation, Palin appeared to temper her bizarre assertions by asking health reform opponents to calm down and be civil, saying “we must stick to a discussion of the issues and not get sidetracked by tactics that can be accused of leading to intimidation or harassment.”
Unfortunately the former Governor’s call for civility hasn’t had much of an impact – at least not in Memphis. Here’s one rather telling excerpt from the article:
“Roger Fakes, 70, said he sat quitely [sic] during most of the meeting, but Cohen’s insistence that citizens would be able to keep their private health care drove him to his feet.
He argued that changes to private insurance would force citizens into the government plan.
“There are some of us old gray-haired folks that don’t want the government involved in any of our business,” he said.”
Alas, he’s about as well informed as our erstwhile Vice President, Ms. Palin…It appears Mr Fakes isn’t aware that the insurance he so ardently defends is a ‘government program’.
This is one example of the apparent ignorance of at least some of the ‘protesters’ about what is being proposed, what alternatives exist, and the current state of the health care system. You don’t know whether to be furious with these folks for their blind support for right wing causes or pity them for the ease with which they are manipulated.
As I and others have noted, there are significant concerns with the current health reform initiatives, yet none of the real concerns are in evidence at these corporate-funded outrage parties. Lets start with cost – our system just costs too much, and that’s what is making it unaffordable. Why aren’t protesters screaming about cost? Because the people funding their outrage are the very companies that base their business’ success on that system.
Aided by their fellow travelers; here’s anexample of the ‘grass roots’ nature of the anti-reform campaign. The tour bus that has been cruising around North Carolina with an “Americans for Prosperity” logo has been funded by none other than Koch Industries, one of the most notorious polluters in the nation. AFP has also challenged global warming, an intelligent energy policy (one that is backed by oilman T Boone Pickens, no less), and tobacco legislation.
Thank goodness the ACLU will fight to its last nickel to defend these slimeballs’ right to publicize their propaganda.


Aug
10

PPO firm Viant acquired by MultiPlan

PPO company Viant (owner of Beech Street and PPONext) will be acquired by larger PPO company MultiPlan.
The announcement came last week; here’s the lead from the internal memo to employees:
“After much thought and deliberation by our Board of Directors and our Executive Team, we have decided to pursue a new chapter in Viant’s long history. Therefore, it is with pleasure that we announce that Viant and MultiPlan have reached an agreement where MultiPlan will acquire 100% of Viant sometime over the next several months.
This decision was not reached lightly. Viant has demonstrated tremendous resiliency over the years, overcoming market and competitive challenges while still growing the business at attractive rates. However, the current U.S. economy and the political momentum around health care reform are very real and represent significant risks. As a result of these challenging and uncertain times, we have considered the most favorable strategic options available to our company that enable us to strengthen our position in the managed care industry and continue to grow. Clearly, economies of scale permit larger companies greater opportunity for growth and cost savings when facing uncertain times.”
The two companies have significant overlap in their PPO networks; both claim five thousand plus hospitals and six hundred thousand plus other providers. It is highly likely the successor organization will pick the best discount deals from either network, giving customers (potentially) larger savings on some bills.
Unsurprisingly, there will be staff reductions; here’s how Viant bosses Dan Thomas and Tom Bartlett put it: “Predictably, as the two companies integrate, downsizing will occur over time where redundant resources and costs are most apparent. We are confident that as this process evolves, the new company will endeavor to retain the most talented and professional employees from both organizations in order to emerge with visibly greater expertise and productivity.
There is no doubt Viant’s team is viewed very favorably by MultiPlan and it is committed to ensuring we achieve this objective.”
So, what does this mean?
Large, broad-based, national PPOs have been faltering of late, as their ability to extract discounts from providers, especially hospitals, has diminished. Over the last few years we’ve seen the PPO market consolidate, with Beech bought by Concentra, First Health take over CCN, Coventry acquiring Concentra and First Health, and Aetna’s purchase of PPOM.
Expect this to continue, but it’s a losing game. PPOs are a cost containment solution that has fallen out of favor. While there will always be a place for them (think out of area coverage, work comp, companies with widely spread workers) they will continue to lose share to more tightly managed networks, vertically integrated systems, and Blues plans.


Aug
7

Health reform – just the facts

(Some) Opponents of health reform have abandoned all pretext of honesty, and instead have embarked on a campaign of fear, intimidation, and outright lies in an effort to halt Congressional action.
That’s not to say advocates of reform haven’t stretched the truth from time to time, but to date opponents’ behavior is by far the more egregious. If you sense a tone of anger here, you’re perceptive. These people are scum.
Exhibit One – The Death-ers
Last week, Betsy McCaughey said on Fred Thompson’s show that the House health care bill contained a provision requiring counseling sessions for seniors on how “to do what’s in society’s best interest … and cut your life short.” House Minority Leader John Boehner (R OH) also said the same provision “may start us down a treacherous path toward government-encouraged euthanasia if enacted into law.”
In reality, the provision in question simply requires Medicare pay for voluntary counseling sessions to help seniors plan for end-of-life medical care, including designating a health care proxy, hospice options, and advice on deciding on life-sustaining treatment.
Boehner and McCaughey’s characterization is fear mongering at its worst. And puts them in league with blowhard Rush Limbaugh, who recently claimed Correspondent Helen Thomas would be “soon to be put out to pasture at Statist Farm…first time she gets sick it will be judged not worth it…”
It’s also patently stupid – why would the Democrats seek to kill off a demographic that favors them?
Exhibit Two – The disrupters
God forbid opponents of reform actually let Congressfolk hear their constituents’ opinions on this critical issue. No, they want to shout their Representatives and Senators down, intimidate them, and threaten those who disagree with physical violence.
News flash to the disrupters who are so blindly willing to be manipulated by the health insurance and medical device industries – this is a democracy, and the majority rules. You aren’t the majority, you lost, get over it. Now you know how the other side felt for the last eight years, yet they didn’t find it necessary to engage in brown-shirt tactics to vent their spleen.
Exhibit Three – Congress’ plan to Canadian-ize our health system
False false false. Canada has a single payer system – which is not under serious consideration here in the US. There is no single payer option in any bill under review, and single payer has been specifically rejected by the President, Secretary Sibelius, the Senate Finance Committee, and most of the House. Committed liberals aren’t happy with this, either.
Exhibit Four – The Canadian system almost killed me
Shona Holmes contends that she had to cross the border to get a brain tumor removed because the Canadian system would have forced her to wait over a year, and she would have died.
Highly unlikely. According to FactCheck; “CBC News (the Canadian Broadcasting Centre) aired a story July 31 quoting a top neurosurgeon in Canada saying that the claim that she would have died is “an exaggeration.” Holmes was diagnosed with Rathke’s cleft cyst, a rare, benign cyst that forms near the pituitary gland. It’s not known to be fatal. [emphasis added] Another neurosurgeon told CBC News that he’d never heard of someone dying from the condition.”
Yet the anti-reform forces persist in publicizing this nonsense.
When you confront these liars about the inaccuracy of these statements, they respond with allegations about the Democrats’ secret agenda to move everyone to single payer, ration care with waiting lines, and cover illegal immigrants (again, why would a politician provide services to folks who can’t vote?).
Ohhhh, here’s why…
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Aug
7

Health plans and health reform – not so simple…

The stock prices of health insurers wax and wane with the likelihood of health reform becoming reality – although in inverse. The announcement last month that the outlook for most of the major health insurers had been downgraded to (or remained) negative might be seen as an indication that reform is likely, or perhaps it is more a result of the conservative nature of rating agency Fitch.
Fitch’s analysis makes sense – if a public plan option is passed that includes the ability to force providers to accept Medicare or similar rates, then it will murder the private insurers. But that is just not going to happen. There is zero chance of any reform measure passing that includes a public plan reimbursing at Medicare – or any rates close to Medicare.
The ratings company’s assertion that reform that includes guaranteed issue without mandated universal coverage and/or pricing flexibility and/or underwriting is a bad idea has been convincingly demonstrated in Massachusetts.
That doesn’t mean the industry has substantial risk. But that risk is more resulting from the current economy than the potential problems from health reform. This was confirmed by Mark Farrah & Associates’ report that the top eight plans lost more than four hundred thousand commercial members in the most recent quarter. If anything, the employment picture is a lot more significant for health plans than the much less likely chance of public plans and other ‘maybe’ events. According to Farrah;
“WellPoint and UnitedHealth, the two largest plans in the United States, saw total enrollment declines of 490,000 and 465,000 respectively. The economy and maintaining strict pricing and underwriting discipline were cited as reasons for the declines.”
What Fitch is not adequately considering is the very real opportunity for health plans. The smart ones (a limited population to be sure) will see this as a big chance to gain millions of members. The even smarter ones will quickly move to slash their admin expenses by eliminating underwriting, refining marketing, and investing heavily in population health.
I’d note that Fitch now has awarded all plans the coveted ‘negative’ status; I believe this is misguided, as there are clearly several that are better positioned to take advantage of reform (if it happens). I’d include Aetna in that group; they actually gained 1.4 million members in Q1 2009.


Aug
6

Jaan’s Health Wonk Review is the go-to source

Jaan Sidorov is hosting this biweek’s edition of HWR; there are more than a few new bloggers featured, along with some old vets. But the great thing about Jaan’s edition is it covers the entire spectrum of reform – and a few other topics highly relevant to today’s debate.
And the guy can write…prose AND poetry.