Aug
6

The Administration’s drug deal – implications for work comp

Today’s NYTimes confirms that the deal struck by big PHRMA and the Administration over drug costs is set in stone; the White House confirmed that they will not go back to drug companies and ask for concessions beyond the $80 billion already promised. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA) has said Congress is not bound by the deal, but it appears that pharma is safe.
I’ll leave the sticky policy implications for a later post, but for now consider what this means for workers comp.
Recall that the current law of the land prevents negotiations by the Secretary of HHS with drug companies over price. This significantly limits the Feds’ ability to reduce costs, and is somewhat unique as most other of the G20 countries do negotiate directly with drug companies – either for prices directly or via a reference or index price scheme.
With yesterday’s ‘announcement’, the concern that work comp PBMs and payers (should have) had over the potential for a massive cost shift to comp appears allayed. There was significant concern that had the Feds forced the pharmaceutical industry to cut prices (via price negotiations, reference/index pricing, or a mandated Medicare rebate) manufacturers would raise prices charged to other payers – and the softest target out there in most states is the comp industry.
The big PBMs – CVS Caremark, Medco, Express – are all large enough to negotiate attractive deals on their own, and many of the payer-based PBMs would also be able to protect their pricing (or piggyback on deals cut by the big three). Not so for comp PBMs, which traditionally pay higher rates to pharmacies due to the higher handling and transaction costs associated with complying with state regulations and identifying and routing scripts.
What does this mean for you?
This doesn’t mean all is fine in the comp drug world, but it does mean the $2 billion plus industry has dodged a very large bullet.


Aug
5

Comparing health reform plans

The good people at the Kaiser Family Foundation have put together a terrific tool that enables side=by=side comparison of all the major health reform plans – or selected plans – across one or multiple areas.
For example, I looked at the Wyden-Bennett plan compared to the latest Senate Finance version and Rep Tom Price’s (R ) offering, specifically on cost containment, mandate, financing, benefit design.
Once again, W-B looks best – and cheapest too.
You’ll undoubtedly have your own set of criteria, and KFF is keeping this updated to reflect the latest variations and changes. Keep it tabbed if you want to stay on top of the real story.


Aug
5

This is getting ugly – and that’s good

phototrip-gt-black-griff-bi.jpg
Those vultures have nothing on (some of our) health care lobbyists and their funders.
After returning to ‘civilization’ from a couple weeks in the Tanzanian bush, it is interesting to see how much progress we’ve made in the health reform debate – or, as the Obama administration has taken to calling it, the ‘health insurance reform’ debate. As a measure of just how much progress has been made, some opponents have called out the big guns of misinformation and outright lies, employed at the ‘grass roots’ by people who, whether they know it or not, are working against their own best interests.
There have been many reports of town hall meetings disrupted by what appears to be carefully organized groups, using an approach scripted by a Washington lobbying firm headed by none other than former Texas Republican Rep. Dick Armey.
Armey’s clients include insurers and medical device companies, firms that are terrified of the potential that health reform may actually harm their business models. The disrupt and obstruct model was actually tested here in Connecticut in a town hall meeting held by Fairfield County’s Jim Himes (D). Read the memo at the link to see just how disgusting these people are.
What’s interesting is reform as currently described in the House bill would have the opposite effect – it would create a huge new constituency, a new market of folks previously without insurance who would suddenly have access to coverage – and the care that that coverage buys. Care that would include stents and drugs and MRIs and surgical implants and pain meds and therapy and tests and operations – creating revenue for Armey’s clients.
Now I don’t for a minute believe Armey’s clients are dumb. Therefore they must be concerned – very concerned – that reform will actually hurt them financially.
That’s really good news. The implication is clear – the health care industry fears that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation that will actually control costs – reducing the overuse of drugs, technology, and treatments and impacting insurer admin expense. That certainly hasn’t been apparent from the House bill, or for that matter the bills that have gotten the most attention in the Senate.
I don’t know if they know something I don’t, or if they’re just running (very) scared, but I’m hoping their concerns are well-founded and we’ll see a serious health reform bill that does attack cost.
I’d suggest anyone who wants a dispassionate, objective, factual review of the debate make it a point to visit Politifact,


Jul
29

The Affordability Model is gaining traction

Health reform news reaches far and wide, even into the middle of the Serengeti, where I learned today that the NYTimes published a piece by David Leonhardt commenting on a variation of Bob Laszewski’s Affordability Model.
It’s more and more apparent that the train wreck scenario is coming to pass. And increasingly clear that some form of taxation is going to be required for health reform to happen.


Jul
24

Fresh Health Wonk Review awaiting your perusal

In Joe’s absence, no need to go without your regular health care policy fix. He lent me the keys to his kingdom so that you could be alerted to a fresh edition of Health Wonk Review posted by Paul Testa at The New Health Dialogue Blog.
– Julie Ferguson


Jul
20

What to watch for in the health reform battle

Whether health reform will pass comes down to one thing, and one thing only – the CBO score.
The Congressional Budget Office is a non-partisan entity that determines (in this case) what legislation will cost. Their numbers have sent Finance Committee members scrambling back to find new sources of revenue for their ‘test’ bill and forced the House to recommend taxing the wealthy for universal coverage.
The CBO determines the cost, and Congress and the President determines if that cost is do-able. Fortunately, so far none of the ideas/bills circulated around the Hill have passed both screens.
As the debate approaches meltdown temperature over the next two weeks, watch for the CBO’s score.
Prediction – none of the current bills will pass, resulting in a desperate attempt to find an alternative, at the end of which smarter heads will finally be heard saying “Hey, What about Wyden Bennett with Laszewski’s Affordability Model?”.
That’s the only way we’ll get reform that we can afford.


Jul
19

I’m outta here!

MCM will be dark for the next two weeks, as the Paduda clan will be in Africa on a long-awaited and much-anticipated family vacation – photo safari, Olduvai Gorge, and a Bushmen village.
I expect I’ll be back at it August 5 – and no, there’s no truth to the rumor that a certain very large work comp managed care firm sent me a one-way ticket to deepest Africa…


Jul
17

Paying providers – the root of the problem – and the solution

A third of US health care dollars are spent on treatments (see the Dartmouth Atlas) that are questionable/doubtful/could have been avoided if the chronic condition was addressed.
That’s $7 trillion over ten years, and if we could snap our fingers and only pay for what we should, that would cover all Americans, with the rest paying off the war debts and giving every kid a college education.
Back here in the real world, precious little has been done – locally or systemwide or in Congress – to take on this biggest of all issues. Fortunately, the fine folks up in Massachusetts have seen fit to jump into reimbursement restructuring in a major way.
The Special Commission on the Health Care Payment System has come up with a very solid set of recommendations, including (quoting from their report):
* A global payment system in which providers would receive a payment per person, adjusted for patients’ health status [emphasis added] and other factors to ensure that they are compensated fairly for their patients’ health care needs. Payments would also be based on meeting common core performance measures to ensure high quality care.
* An emphasis on patient-centered medicine, with doctors and other providers providing coordinated, evidence-based, high-quality care for patients. In addition to providing more effective care for patients, this approach will also help to reduce health care costs in the longer term.
* A careful transition to global payment within five years, during which “shared savings” would serve as an interim payment model to help some providers become more familiar with global payment with no or reduced exposure to risk. There would also be infrastructure support for providers to facilitate the transition to global payments, including technical assistance and training and information technology.
Say what you will about Massachusetts; while the rest of us are talking endlessly, they are doing something. Not all of it is right, and some is pretty questionable, but I applaud the Commonwealth’s initiative. We are all learning much from their efforts.


Jul
16

Why the fight over the public plan option is pointless

The fierce battle over the public plan option is much ado about very little, an epic battle over a useless piece of political ground. It is the health care debate’s version of the Battle of the Hurtgen Forest – a huge waste of time, resources, and talent on a pretty much pointless contest.
The political treasure spent by pro- and o-ponents to date has been huge, and the spending looks likely to increase in the coming days.
For what? How does the public option help, or hurt, health care and the health care system?
The short answer is – it doesn’t.

Democrats see the public option as critical; it adds competition to a mostly non-competitive business, puts pressure on private insurers, and ensures individuals and businesses can get access to good coverage at a reasonable cost.
How? Premium rates are driven by medical costs. Plans with low costs get more members, and take share from plans with higher costs. That’s why the big indemnity carriers of the late eighties (Travelers, Home Life, Great West, Time, Phoenix et al) are mostly out of business and the world is dominated by HMO-based plans – the HMOs’ cost of goods sold was lower.
Costs are the price per service times the volume of services provided to members who get those services times the number of members getting those services – more simply, price x utilization x frequency. Price is the primary reason health care costs here are so much higher than in other countries.
How would a public plan control price per service? It can’t. The Republican bemoaning the ability of a public plan to use Medicare rates (or a similarly low fee schedule) miss the fact that docs and other providers would not have to sign up for this plan – as with Medicare, there’s nothing forcing them to agree to participate. Sure, most providers do accept Medicare, but that’s because it is a huge payer. Which brings us to the second point.
A public plan would begin with zero members. And zero bargaining power. The big health plans have lots of members, which is how they convince providers to agree to discount their services. Without volume, no discount.
Without discount, no price advantage. Without price advantage, higher premiums. With higher premiums, few members. With few members, no volume.
See where we’re going here? A public plan could not compete effectively because it could not get a lower ‘cost of goods sold’.
The opponents of a public plan are equally confused, claiming it would damage the free market, adding unfair competition. The reality is that in most areas, there is no free market in health insurance; markets are already monopsonies.
Almost every market is already dominated by a very few health plans, so much so that in most markets, there really is very little market competition amongst health plans.
Here are a few factoids using 2005 data; if anything there has been more market consolidation, so these percentages are even higher today…
– 96% of HMO/PPO markets are deemed highly concentrated
– 99% of HMO markets are highly concentrated
– in 96% of markets, at least one insurer has share higher than 30%
– in almost two-thirds of the markets, at one insurer has share greater than 50%
– in a quarter of the markets, one insurer has share at or above 70%.
As I said back in January, would a new governmental plan have an advantage over, say, Blue Cross of Alabama, which has market share ranging from 67 percent in Tuscaloosa to 95 percent in Gadsden? Or Blue Cross of Arkansas, with share from 63 percent in Hot Springs to 97 percent in Texarkana? Or the two dominant health plans in Ohio, with combined share ranging from 46 percent to 80 percent?
It wouldn’t; in fact it would be an uphill climb on a very icy slope for a governmental plan to reach market parity, much less market dominance in most of the country’s MSAs. Health plans execs spend every waking hour, and some while asleep, thinking about how they can steal share from their competition. They beat each others’ brains out on a daily basis, fighting over each employer, each member, each new contract. And most are very, very good at it.
Yes, a governmental plan could try to force docs to accept lower fees, and physicians could and would tell the Feds to pound sand. There is precedence for this – try and find a doc who will accept Medicaid in New York. Recall the revolt of physicians last summer when they were facing a dramatic cut in Medicare reimbursement. Physicians do not have to work with any health plan – governmental or private.
There just isn’t any logical basis for the argument that a governmental option would somehow be unfair for competition, or drive out private plans, or lead to a government monopoly. Just as there is no basis for contending that a public plan would add reasonable competition, thereby forcing the ‘market’ to hold down costs.
If the Democrats succeed in passing health reform with a public plan option, it will have very little impact on system cost. And if the GOP and moderate Democrats are able to stop a public plan yet reform still passes, their ‘victory’ will have no impact on system costs.
The health reform war is about cost. The battle over the public plan is a fight over a useless piece of ground.
A huge new governmental program without meaningful, and effective, cost control is a recipe for disaster. We don’t need another Part D with its eight trillion dollar unfunded liability (passed by a Republican Congress and signed by a Republican President.

What we need is health reform that injects competition into a non-competitive business.


Jul
15

The House Health Reform Bill – just the highlights

That big thud you heard yesterday was the 1,018 pages of the House Health Reform bill hitting the table. America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 marks the first real, vote-able comprehensive health reform bill in sixteen years. While there is much to complain about, the fact that it made it this far pretty much complete is big news.
There’s still much to do, as the committees with jurisdiction (three at last count) still have to vote on the measure,
Here are the highlights:
– It builds off the current employer-based system, adding an Insurance Exchange to enable those without coverage to gain access to insurance. Subsidies are available u to 400% of the federal poverty limit ($43,000 for individuals, $88k for a four person family)
– Medical underwriting, pre-ex exclusions, lifetime benefit limits, and other risk selection/mitigation tools are banned.
– A modified version of Community rating is mandated, with rates varying only by age (max of 2:1), location, and family size.
– Minimum benefit design standards will be set by an Advisory Committee chaired by the Surgeon General.
Half the funds to pay for the bill would come from a surtax applied to any adjusted gross income exceeding $280,000 a year for an individual and $350,000 for a couple filing a joint return, with tax rates ranging from 1 percent to 5.4 percent. The tax would take effect in 2011, with a family making $1 million paying an additional $9,000, and one making $500k paying $1500 more. 1.2 percent of families would be affected.
– Essentially all employers would be required to provide health insurance for their employees or pay a penalty of eight percent of wages.
– The CBO estimates the bill would cover an additional 37 million people, leaving about 9 million Americans (and an estimated 8 million illegal immigrants) without coverage.
– The bill includes a public option plan that would begin operation in 2013, with physicians paid at Medicare plus 5 percent, and other providers at Medicare rates.
– The Medicare Advantage subsidies are eliminated.
– The Medicare SGR (physician payment calculation process) is ended and reimbursement for primary care increased.
What does it mean?
First, know this bill isn’t going to become the law of the land in its present form.
Second, watch for the reaction of moderate Democrats (the Blue Dogs), especially those in the Senate. Heads-up – talking about the bill, Sen Ben Nelson (D NE) said “Tax is a four-letter word”…
Third, the horse trading is about to ramp up to fever pitch; if stakeholders start believing reform may actually pass, they are going to renew their efforts to be ‘part of the solution’, also known as ‘do it to yourself before Congress does it to you’.
Want to read the entire bill? Have at it… For those less ambitious, try the summary.