20 million more Americans are covered today than were pre-ACA. ACA’s insureds are poorer, more likely to be recent immigrants, and much more likely to be Hispanic than the rest of the country.
And for many, their new coverage is the first time they’ve had the “luxury” of insurance. They aren’t scared when a new pain or malady erupts, moms not terrified when a child wakes up with a fever, dads not losing sleep wondering how to pay the doctor’s bill or buy the insulin.
The disparity in coverage between and among ethnic groups, while still present, is narrowing – although black Americans would be doing much better if many didn’t live in states that have refused to expand Medicaid.
Make no mistake, this is very, very big news.
Beyond the much better life for the newly-insureds, the economic and long-term economic impacts are strongly positive.
Identifying and helping at-risk members is the top priority for health plans, community health centers (serving a large portion of the Medicaid community) and ACOs. The more these providers are able to reduce the severity of chronic medical conditions, the lower their costs will be. And the healthier, and more productive, their members will be. And the more they will produce, and the more taxes they will pay.
ACA’s success will be measured over the long term. Reducing unpaid ER visits reduces hospitals’ costs. Preventing amputations and blindness among diabetes patients, cuts treatment costs and increases productivity. Keeping Americans healthier decreases first-year costs for Medicare recipients.
Despite the good news, there are two ongoing, knotty, closely-related and so-far unsolved issues. First, premiums in some areas are still too high to be “affordable”. Notably, that’s particularly true in non-Medicaid expansion states, but they’ll come along eventually (although far too late for many of their poorer residents, who will suffer needlessly while pols demagogue).
Second, many plans come with high deductibles, making routine care still problematic for poorer members.
Both will be addressed by health plans fighting for members – their survival, growth, and profitability demands it.
It won’t be tomorrow, and it won’t be pretty; remember we are fixing a broken industry that accounts for almost a fifth of our GDP. Networks will narrow, vertically-integrated delivery systems will get way more efficient, new models will emerge, and the health care system of 2021 will look a lot different than the one we have today.
Tomorrow, a deeper dive into who’s covered now and an examination of the potential impact on workers’ comp.