There's good news and bad news in the latest projections on health care costs; last year, US health spending increased a mere 3.9 percent, due largely to the recently ended recession (people lost health insurance, and those who still had it couldn't afford their high deductibles, and others switched to Medicaid from their group coverage after losing their jobs).

The total national health bill for 2010 hit $2.6 trillion. While the health spend did increase 3.9%, nominal GDP went up by the same amount, so health care spend as a percentage of GDP didn't change.

That won't last very long.

In three short years, national health spending growth is expected to reach 8.3 percent due to several factors:

- implementation of the Affordable Care Act of 2010

- expansion of employer coverage

- increased Medicaid enrollment

- associated increases in spending on drugs and physician care, driven in part by newly-insured individuals seeking care for conditions long neglected.

The year after ACA's implementation, inflation is expected to decline to 5.3%, as effect of the one-time demand for services by the newly insured tapers off

For details, see the article in Health Affairs