Joseph Paduda's weblog on managed care for group health, workers compensation & auto insurance, covering health care cost containment, health policy, health research, and medical news for insurers, employers, and healthcare providers.

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June 29, 2006

Surgical implants - who's paying?

Physicians choose surgical implants and devices, hospitals order and pay for them, patients get whatever the docs choose, device manufacturers make lots of profits, and payers foot the bill. A process that is seemingly designed to completely avoid any price sensitivity, and the results to date have shown that there is remarkably little concern about cost on the part of the doc or patient, and at least to date, little ability to reduce costs on the part of the hospital, or payer.

A column in today's New York Times describes the results of an analysis performed by investment firm Sanford Bernstein (registration required) which compared the costs of surgical implants (artificial hips, knees, etc) at 100 hospitals. Many of these institutions thought they were getting preferential pricing, but the results of the study show that their costs may have been substantially higher than other hospitals'.

The net of the article is that the days of price opacity in surgical implants is likely coming to an end; the research, combined with inquiries by regulators and the US Justice Dept. will shine a blinding light on the arcane world of implant pricing, likely bringing to an end the annual 8% price increases.

There is a subtlety missed in the article, which pertains to the small but important role of the workers comp payer. Sources indicate that a substantial portion of surgical implants are covered by workers comp, a portion much greater than the miniscule overall market share of comp (about 2% of all medical dollars are spent on comp, but figures indicate over a third of surgical implants are paid for under workers comp).

In comp, specifically in DRG states like New York, the cost of the implant is added to the DRG cost, which can increase the cost of the care by 50-70%. Therefore, the wounded parties in comp are not the hospitals (who typically price these procedures on a bundled basis in the group health and Medicare worlds and thereby absorb the cost) but the WC insurers.

What does this mean for you?

More light shining on the murky world of medical costs and procedures is always welcome; be sure to make sure you understand how the bundling and unbundling applies to your contracts and reimbursement.

June 23, 2006

Vacation

I'm leaving for a slightly-less-than-three week vacation, and will be posting sporadically at best. This will be the longest break since grad school, and I'm very much looking forward to the time away. One of the really big problems with taking an extended vacation is the somewhat scary notion that the world will proceed along just fine in one's absence.

Therefore, if anyone is planning any momentous changes in the worlds of managed care, health policy, workers comp, or insurance, please delay until my return.

If the changes absolutely can't wait, we'll just have to rely on Matt Holt, Hank Stern, Tom Lynch and Julie Ferguson, Roy Poses, and the rest of the erudite, informed, and incisive that populate the health wonk-o-sphere to announce, analyze, interpret, and pronounce judgment .

Somehow I think they'll do just fine.

June 22, 2006

How does physician income drop while costs increase?

Everyone's losing in America's health care mess. Premiums for family coverage are doubling every ten years, and will hit $20,000 per family per year before 2015. While insurance costs are going up, physicians are actually making less. Physician income decreased 7% (registration required) in real terms from 1997 to 2003. Specialist earnings dropped the least (2%), while primary care docs saw a 10% decline. And Medicare reimbursement rates will likely decline in nominal terms in the near future.

The data, from a study by the Center for the Study of Health System Change, seem at odds with the daily torrent of reports on exploding health care costs. If health care costs and insurance costs are rising, how could docs be making less?

There is good news buried in CSHC's report - the amount of time physicians spend actually treating patients has increased significantly, while the time devoted to administrative tasks has declined.

It appears the answer lies in declining reimbursement rates. These hard-working docs are spending plenty of time (over 45 hours a week) with patients, but their reimbursement rates have not kept pace with inflation. For example, Medicare has increased fees by 13% during the study period, while the underlying inflation was 21%. And, private payers' reimbursement declined from 143% of Medicare's rate in 1997 to 123% in 2003.

So, clearly physician income is not a driver of medical inflation. One driver appears to be the increased volume of tests performed; utilization in this area was up at a 6% annual rate over the study period.

But the real driver appears to be higher utilization of physician services (more docs doing more stuff), and, slightly less important, a significant increase in hospital and facility costs.

Oh, and drug costs continue to rocket skyward...

What does this mean for you?

Higher costs, lower incomes = unhappy consumers and providers does not = change...yet.

June 21, 2006

Big pharma v big government

Prices on branded drugs increased 3.9% in Q1 2006(registration required), the largest increase in six years. Coincidentally, the Medicare Part D drug coverage program went into effect 1/1/2006. Part D has resulted in somewhere around ten million new customers for insurers, who will now pay 4.7% more for Lipitor and 13.3% more for Ambien.

In terms of dollars, AARP calculates the average senior's costs will increase by almost $20 per month, as the Part D providers are passing the cost increases along to their subscribers.

There has been the usual rash of outraged protests from various mouthpieces for big pharma, all of which are either disingenuous, outrageously self-serving, misleading, or poor attempts at deflecting blame towards insurers et al.

So what happens when pharma decides to increase prices?

Well, the mass media starts looking at what the Veterans Administration pays for drugs. Compared to the VA, the only federal entity allowed to negotiate prices, Part D prices are now 46% higher on average.

Here are a couple examples, quoted from the Families USA report.

"For Zocor (20 mg), the lowest VA price for a year’s treatment was $127.44, while the lowest Part D plan price was $1,275.36, a difference of $1,147.92 or 901 percent.

For Fosamax (70 mg), the lowest VA price for a year’s treatment was $265.32, while the lowest Part D plan price was $727.92, a difference of $462.60 or 174 percent."

So here we have big government, in the form of the VA, delivering prices that are about half of what private industry can obtain. While that's kind of interesting, it gets way more than "kind of" interesting when you consider that Part D has added $8 trillion to the nation's long term debt. That's a quarter of the entire Medicare deficit...

Tell me again how privatizing health care for seniors is a good deal for taxpayers, seniors, and the country?

June 19, 2006

Reinsurance getting harder to find

While primary P&C insurance markets appear to be flat to softening, the opposite seems to be occuring in the reinsurance business. According to leaders of several of the top reinsurers, capacity is down while demand is up, the indication of a hardening reinsurance market.

Underlying these macro trends are less obvious factors contributing to this apparent dichotomy. First, the secondary insurers are paying more attention to bottom lines than top lines; looking for profitable business and not just any business. Second, reinsurers are seeking good long-tail line business such as workers comp; these lines also tend to be the least affected by natural catastrophes and provide the longest access to capital as claims are paid out over years instead of months. Third, with interest rates ticking up, reinsurers can find attractive places to invest premiums over the long haul.

And finally, there are a lot of very anxious reinsurance underwriters who break out in a cold sweat when the barometer drops...witness all the press about the season's first tropical depression, a weather non-event that normally would merit nothing more than a slightly extended local weather update in coastal Florida cities.

Ohio's BWC to cut payments to hospitals

Ohio's Bureau of Workers Compensation will no longer be subsidizing indigent care at the state's hospitals. The recent announcement that BWC is cutting reimbursement for inpatient care to Medicare plus 15% is one of the positive outcomes of the Hydra-headed scandal at Ohio's Bureau of Workers Compensation.

And it appears likely that BWC will next cut payments for outpatient services, which make up a much larger slice of the medical expense pie.

Ohio joins several other states, including Pennsylvania. Connecticut, Rhode Island, California, and Maryland, all of which base workers comp reimbursement on Medicare costs plus a percentage.

Notably, the press has been somewhat neutral in its coverage of the change, with a recent editorial allowing that the reduction will simply result in cost-shifting to other payers. That is an inevitable result; however there is no logical, ethical, or legal requirement that the state's employers pay for the inefficiencies or hospitals or society's failure to provide insurance for all citizens.

Work comp has been a very profitable line of business for the state's hospitals, generating over a half-billion dollars over a seven year period. That figure covers both inpatient and outpatient care, with outpatient significantly larger.

What does this mean for you?

On a micro level, lower costs for workers comp in Ohio; on a macro level another push for universal coverage.

June 16, 2006

The smart money is buying TPAs

Sedgwick CMS, one of the nation's larger property and casualty TPAs, is getting even bigger. The company will be acquiring Comp Management Inc. (CMI) for just under $200 million.

This marks the first expansion of Sedgwick since its sale to Fidelity National earlier in the year. Sedgwick acquired California-based disability management and administration firm VPA in May. Prior to that deal, Sedgwick had primarily grown organically; the new owners look to be very interested in gaining size and competencies as quickly as possible.

CMI had been on an expansion trajectory of its own, branching out into medical malpractice administration with the acquisition of Octagon in 2003, a deal that also significantly expanded CMI's west coast presence. CMI was owned by investment firm Security Capital Corp. of Greenwich Ct.

Broadspire is another TPA acquired by an investment firm. This deal, which transferred the somewhat-damaged Kemper National Services TPA to Platinum Equity, was the first of a series of acquisitions that have propelled the combined entity into the top tier of TPAs in terms of market size. RSKCO and Cunningham Lindsey were added to the portfolio in 2004. Since that deal, Broadspire has been selling off assets that appear to be tangential to its core claims adjudication business; the disability management operation went to Aetna and Bureau Veritas picked up the loss control/safety division earlier this year.

These deals are not the only sign of interest on the part of the investment community in the P&C world. The level and amount of interest in TPAs has grown exponentially over the past year; my sense is the industry is perceived to be ripe for consolidation; backward in terms of technology, business process streamlining, and operational excellence; and significantly less profitable than it could be.

I agree.

Health Wonk Review is up!

Julie Ferguson has outdone us all - an excellent edition of HWR is up and ready for your perusal and edification.

June 15, 2006

Family insurance premiums to double in ten years

Early indications are that HMO rates will rise 7-8% next year. Compared to this year's 10% average increase, that's good news. And here's just how good that news is.

Withfamily premiums (HMO and other plan types) hovering at the $11,000 mark, and rates increasing by, say, 7% per year, we'll have health insurance costs of $20,000 per family in ten years. Truly the miracle of compound inflation (sorry, Benjamin Graham).

The 7% increase quoted is a wildly optimistic figure, as rates have increased at least 9% each year for the last five years. And, with the number of people without insurance increasing every year, further adding to cost-shifting to insureds; tighter eligibility requirements for Medicaid; and increased employee cost-sharing the middle class (read - voters) will be increasingly demanding action - and if the next presidential election does not have health care as a top theme, it will only be because of a horrendous natural or man-made disaster. Although one could reasonablyh consider the US health care system a man-made disaster, I'm thinking more on the order of foriegn policy.

What does this mean for you?

More pain before our elected officials get their collective act together.

June 14, 2006

Health Wonk Review entries due

Send your submissions to Julie Ferguson at: julie AT julieferguson DOT com. Make sure you include-

your blog url
the entry url
a brief synopsis

Julie's doing other stuff today, so you have till 5 pm eastern.

The UAW, Sen. Orrin Hatch and Universal Access

Health care makes strange bedfellows, and there is perhaps no odder combination than UAW Pres. Ron Gettelfinger and Sen Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). Especially when both agree that health care is a national crisis, and both are affiliated with organizations that agree the feds should guarantee health care access to all.

In a landmark speech a couple days ago, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger acknowledged the cost of health care benefits is one of the key problems facing the declining US auto industry, and called for the union's 600,000 members to be part of the solution. In his hour-long speech, Gettelfinger mentioned health care a dozen times, paying special attention to national health care policy. He blamed Pres. Bush for a failure to address the problem, and specifically called for a national single payer approach. But readers who only absorb that sound bite miss Gettelfinger's core message; without a rational approach to health care, the US will not survive economically. Here are a few quotes...

"U.S. automakers (are) at a severe competitive disadvantage...It’s time to level the playing field. Health care is another area where we are at a competitive disadvantage..."

"In the 2003 national auto negotiations we were successful at preserving health care. However, last year the financial situation at GM and Ford was such that our retiree’s health care was at risk and I made the difficult decision to negotiate an agreement to address the huge and growing retirees’ health care liability carried by these companies."

The UAW knows that economic survival depends on a competitive automobile industry, and with health care costs at Ford and GM totaling $9 billion, that survival is in doubt.

"Assuring health care is a shared social responsibility." No, that's not another line from Gettelfinger's speech, but rather from the interim report of the Citizens' Health Care Working Group, a non-partisan Congressionally-funded research project started by Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Ron Wyden (D-OR). This statement came out in the group's preliminary report, along with a recommendation that the federal government guarantee access to health care for all Americans.

Sure, there are differences in approach, but there are a lot more similarities than differences. Could it be that we're getting closer to addressing the health care problem?

June 12, 2006

BWC heads start to fall

The train wreck that is the Ohio Bureau of Workers Comp scandal continues to claim more victims (actually, more accurately perpetrators).

The ex-CFO recently was convicted of corruption and will likely serve seven years in prison for his actions. His actions, and the inactions and outright incompetence of internal investigators, enabled Gasper's fraud to dig a very deep hole for BWC and its policyholders.

Gasper is now starting to name names, which could make this rather delicious scandal even more tasty.

More reimbursement nastiness

Reimbursement policy has long been one of the more misused means of managing the cost and quality of care. Providers and payers have long fought over risk withholds, capitation, per diems, case rates, and their kin, all in an effort to maximize, or minimize, payout.

By fighting over these issues, the parties are getting no closer to a resolution, and are doing themselves no favors. Instead of this no-win battle, providers and payers should be focusing on the real problem - the un- and under-insured.

But first, the detail on this squabble. The latest trend comes out of California, where Wellpoint has decided to pay docs less for performing colonoscopies in hospitals than in their offices or ambulatory centers. The cut in reimbursement for hospital-based procedures is about 20%, while the increase for non-hospital-based services is 5%.

Readers will no doubt be shocked to hear the hospitals are crying foul, using patient safety as the instrument to bludgeon Wellpoint. Unfortunately, this dispute breaks no new ground in the care v cost dialogue, with CA Hospital Association president Duane Dauner saying "Health plans shouldn't force doctors to make patient-care decisions based upon money."

The response from Wellpoint was predictable; "It's really litigation over dollars, not patient safety," WellPoint spokesman Robert Alaniz said", noting that hospital-based colonoscopies could cost "up to ten times" more than non-hospital services.

Without data on actual quality outcomes and specific cost differentials (something a little more specific than "up to ten times more expensive"), it's hard to cut thru the sound bites. That said, I'm having a tough time with Dauner's statement that health plans should not ask docs to factor in cost when considering patient care decisions. That's the attitude that has gotten us to where we are - runaway costs are due in large part to the "buyer's" ( the physician exerts the most control over the buying decision ) complete lack of concern over costs.

There is a separate issue here; hospitals continue to rely on overpayments by private insurers such as Wellpoint to pay for the underpayments of Medicaid and nonpayments by the uninsured.

If providers and payers addressed the underlying disease state (access) instead of fighting over the symptoms (payment differentials) they might actually have some chance of getting to a solution. Instead, they insult, degrade, and denigrate each other, eliminating any chance for constructive dialogue.

When do the adults take over?

June 9, 2006

URAC is getting into drugs

URAC, the national body that is the self-described "leader in promoting health care quality through its accreditation and certification" of managed care firms, processes, and programs, is getting into the PBM certification business. According to a recent press release, URAC has formed a standards committee to "advise the organization on the creation of requirements for the first-ever accreditation programs addressing pharmacy benefits management in the Medicare, commercial insurance and health plan arenas".

URAC has gotten into the managed care approval business in a big way of late, and now provides accreditation in 15 areas, including call center operations, consumer directed health, UR, workers comp UR, and claims processing. While the accreditation process can be onerous, some industry sources question the diligence, precision, and rigor of the process itself. According to one highly experienced workers comp clinical manager, the accreditation of one vendor was "shocking; I don't know what they (URAC) were looking at...my audit clearly showed some major deficencies in (the vendor's) QA, documentation, timeliness of communications, and feedback to the (clinical) staff."

This echoes other comments I have heard from entities evaluating vendors; it appears that URAC certification/accreditation, which serves as a seal of approval, demonstrating the vendor has met rigorous standards, may be losing a bit of its "gold seal" status. This would be unfortunate, as many state regulators, employers, public entities, and vendors rely on URAC to be the expert in evaluating potential vendors for quality and consistency of operations.

What does this mean for you?

If URAC develops a PBM evaluation process that is rigorous, appropriate, and sensitive to both vendors' and purchasers' needs and requirements, your job should be easier. That doesn't mean you shouldn't do your own due diligence, and do it diligently.

June 8, 2006

Watch out for that hole...

The Fresno Bee editorial page picked up on a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine about the impact of deductibles and copays on compliance. The study analyzed what happened to seniors once they met their coverage limit under a drug program known as Medicare Premium Plus. (this limit was set at $1000)

The results are not terrible surprising - visits to the ER rose, compliance with drug regimens diminshed, blood pressure rose.

We may well see the same result around October, when many seniors will hit the "doughnut hole"; after they have incurred about $2250 in costs, they are responsible for the next $3000 or so, after which coverage kicks in again. If they stop taking their medications, we can expect to see a bump up in ER visits and potentially other services. When you add in their copays and the doughnut hole payouts, a beneficiary who hits $5100 in total expenditures will have paid $3,600 out of pocket.

About 25% of beneficiaries are projected to hit the doughnut hole; 10% will hit the $5100 level and therefore be defined as catastrophic cases.

It is likely that these folks will be less healthy than the seniors who don't spend that much on drugs. And for many, the drugs are keeping them out of the hospital by managing their blood sugar, hormone levels, lipids, hypertension, psychiatric issues, and chronic pain.

If they stop taking their meds, Part D costs may well come in under projections. The other Medicare "Parts" wiil not be so fortunate.

June 7, 2006

Ohio hospitals' misguided complaints

Hospitals in Ohio are complaining that proposed cuts in reimbursement by the Bureau of Workers Compensation are unfair, even though the proposed reimbursement level is Medicare +15%. According to one spokeswoman for the hospitals, "There is a misconception that a broken arm costs the same in Columbus, Ohio, as it does in Los Angeles, Calif.," said Tiffany Himmelreich, spokeswoman for the Ohio Hospital Association, which has 170 member institutions.

Well, talk about a non sequitur. No one is claiming that hospitals in LA have the same costs as hospitals in Columbus. What Ms. Himmelreich is missing is that the proposal would pay the hospital their costs plus a 15% margin. And, with Medicare hospital reimbursement generally accepted as satisfactory, I have a tough time following the Hospital Association's argument that the cuts are unfair.

Here's why. Ms. Himmelreich went on to say ""For instance, a hospital with a high level of uninsured patients might charge more than a hospital with a lower level of uninsured." Since when is it the responsibility of BWC, or Ohio employers, to cover the costs of the uninsured?

I'm as vocal as anyone about the problems of the uninsured, the drag they place on our economy, and the desperate need for our elected officials to get out of their golf carts and fix the problem.

But shifting costs to workers comp payers is not the solution. It hides the problem, and in the long term the Hospital Association's complaints will do them more harm then good.

Workers compensation premiums are a significant cost of doing business. The BWC is well within its rights to refuse to subsidize a problem that is societal. In fact, between 1997 and 2004, Ohio's employers overpaid hospitals over half a billion dollars. Think about what that money could have done if it was invested in employee training, new technology, alternative energy sources...

BWC and the Ohio Hospital Association should be working together on the uninsured issue, not fighting.

What does this mean for you?

A reminder to look deeper into issues, because there is a lot of common ground among payers and providers.

June 6, 2006

First Health's new Work Comp exec

Sources indicate First Health is set to announce they have hired a new executivefor their workers comp business. The new guy will be Robert Gelb, late of IntraCorp where he most recently led their sales and account management effort. This may mark the end of a seventeen-month long search for a leader for this highly profitable but somewhat troubled property, acquired by Coventry in January of 2005.

IntraCorp's recent struggles have been well-documented, and I have commented at length on the challenges facing any new leader of First Health.

IntraCorp has recently lost a significant amount of business, with Sedgwick moving a big chunk of bill review to Concentra and ESIS doing the same. I'm not sure what Mr. Gelb's role was in this process, but I'm guessing it came up during his interviews.

For Mr. Gelb's new employer, the biggest question remains the present strategic position of First Health; the company is trapped in what Clayton Christianson calls the "Innovators' Dilemma". And its WC revenues have been flat over the past five quarters, in contrast to management's projections for significant growth.

Placing a sales guy in charge of WC at First Health may makessense, as Coventry has been quite public about their desire to grow WC significantly. And the original compensation package, with a base in the $300k range plus bonus and equity, should have been enough to entice a strong leader. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Gelb is that person.

What does this mean for you?

Either not much or an awful lot.

June 5, 2006

CMS data release - and their point is...?

To much fanfare, CMS released several data files containing hospital charge and payment data by state, county, (but not by individual facility) for the 30 most common DRGs and elective procedures. National, state and county financial ranges are included, and the volume of services provided at individual facilities are also available.

This is the first of three planned data releases; the next scheduled for this summer is for ambulatory surgical centers followed this fall by hospital outpatient numbers.

Promoted by the Administration as a part of Bush's "commitment to make health care more affordable and accessible, President Bush directed the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to make cost and quality data available to all Americans", the data is available at CMS' website. I'm not sure how this data will help consumers become better...consumers, but in the meantime here's my positive spin on the effort.

Here's my take on what you can do with the data.

1. FIgure out how your payments compare to the Feds', and use that to assess your contracting strategy.

2. Identify the hospitals that do the most specific procedures, and direct your patients/insureds/injured workers to those facilities...and away from the others.

3. Publish the data (after translating it into English) on your website so patients can draw their own conclusions.

4. Examine the volume of procedures at specific facilities and compare that to your payments to same see if there is a link between experience and efficiency (or at least billing practices).

5. Look at the payment to charge ratio and wonder.

6. Wonder how the release of the data will help consumers make better decisions, as individual hospital charge and payment data is not available.

There seems to be a problem here. How are consumers going to improve their ability to consume if individual facilities' results are not posted? How could an individual consumer use these data to make better decisions? Do the Feds have a clue?

Here's the detail on what's in the files.

"Top 30 Elective Inpatient Hospital DRGs" contains the volume and ranges of Medicare payments between the 25th and 75th percentiles for a limited set of conditions treated in U.S. states and counties. Included are the 30 conditions that had the highest utilization rates among all Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). Data are aggregated at the county, state and national level.

"Other Inpatient Hospital DRGs of High Utilization" contains ranges of Medicare payments between the 25th and 75th percentiles for a limited set of conditions treated in U.S. states and counties. These conditions are not among the top 30 utilized Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), but were deemed of interest to the Medicare community. Data are aggregated at the county, state and national level."

What does this mean for you?

See above.

HWR 8 is up

Edition eight of Health Wonk Review is up at HealthVoices.

June 2, 2006

National health care is coming.

National health care will be reality within five years. All the theory, intellectual debate, politicking, lobbying, trips to Scottish golf resorts and campaign contributions funded by lobbyists, insurers, providers, and big pharma will come up against two overwhelming forces – demographics and the weight of bad decisions in the past.

As of the last Medicare trustee report, Medicare’s long term debt is $32.4 trillion. Part D alone is responsible for a quarter of that amount, or $8 billion. In comparison, the entire Social Security debt is $4 trillion.

In the face of that incomprehensibly huge figure, we have a Congress that is incapable of doing anything that might alienate seniors, doctors, pharmaceutical manufacturers or hospitals. We have an administration seeking to cut provider reimbursement and increase seniors’ costs by $36 billion over 4 years. That’s about 1% of the total medicare deficit. And we have the Bush tax cuts set to expire by 2011, which just happens to be the same time the Medicare trust fund cash flow turns from black to red as the Baby Boomer generation starts cashing in.

This will force change. The only question is will there be a single payer system, universal coverage via private insurers, some form of hybrid, or a new and as-yet unformed model. Given the recent transgressions of the major national health plans, I wouldn't go too long on Aetna, United Healthcare, or CIGNA stock.

If you are looking for what it may look like and the features thereof, see here and here.

What does this mean for you?

Your decision - part of the solution or part of the problem?

June 1, 2006

Part D results are...

Part D’s enrollment deadline came and went, and along with it the orgy of claims, counter claims, blames and counter blames. So now that at least a bit of the dust has settled, where are we?

Confused.

Depending on whom you read or watch or listen to, the program has either been a success or a failure, is working or is not, is profitable or a loser, has enrolled “enough” people or has fallen well short.

The reality is as confusing as the perceptions appear to be. In any effort to cut through the spin, I checked in with Bob Laszewski of Health Policy and Strategy Associates. His take is it is too early to tell how things are going, and in the absence of truly meaningful metrics, we’re just going to have to wait and see.

Here’s why there is so much confusion.

There is no consensus on how many seniors have signed up for Part D or have alternate drug coverage under other plans. For starters, health plans and the Feds can’t agree on who is signed up by whom. Some health plans have been told they have thousands more members than they can account for, while others are being told large numbers of their “enrollees” actually signed up for Part D when they already had coverage under Medicare Advantage or another plan.

As near as I can figure it, there are between 8 million and 4.5 million seniors still without coverage. More details to follow...

Meanwhile, Humana, one of the more “successful” health plans in terms of signing up seniors for its Part D programs, recently saw its debt ratings outlook downgraded by AM Best from ‘stable” to “negative” in part due to large Part D enrollment and associated reliance on government contracts and increased capital requirements.

And AM Best may be on to something. The Medicare Trustees recently projected that the Part D program’s costs would increase by 11.5% annually over the next ten years. If those projections hold true, early claims about the currently “favorable” loss ratios may be short-lived.

We'll have to wait until at least mid-July for reasonably accurate enrollment figures, and accurate financials will take another five months or so. If someone provides numbers in either category before those dates, be skeptical.

Joseph Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates.

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