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May 28, 2008

Why employers must be involved in health insurance

Productivity.

Lost in the great debate about the role of the employer, the individual, and the government in health care reform is the critical link between health insurance, care, and productivity.

Years ago when I was responsible for the Travelers' utilization review account management function I met with Bruce Bradley, who was then the head of employee benefits at telecom giant GTE. I was going thru the data, reporting on how well Travelers had done reducing this and cutting that, when he stopped me and asked about the ER and inpatient admissions rate for children with asthma. I didn't have the data, and asked why he wanted to know.

Bradley proceeded to educate me on GTE's workforce and their functions. To summarize, they had a lot of employees who were single parents or one parent in a dual-income family. Many of their employees worked in line maintenance, directory assistance, and other blue- and pink-collar jobs.

And when one of these workers was out of work, caring for a child experiencing an acute asthmatic attack, the lines didn't get fixed and calls didn't get answered. Bradley wanted to know what the Travelers was doing about this. Truth was, we weren't doing anything.

GTE is long gone, swallowed up in the telecom mergers in the nineties. But Bradley's point is as true now as it was then - keeping workers, and their families, healthy and productive is the primary objective of health insurance.

I'll grant that few policy wonks look at it from this perspective. Perhaps that's because they didn't have the pinned-to-the-wall-like-a-butterfly-in-a-display-case experience I went thru. But because they don't consider the impact of health insurance on employer productivity, they miss the reason employers offer health insurance in the first place - to attract, and keep, good workers.

If employers are removed from the process of vetting and selecting health insurance vendors, individuals would be responsible for choosing their carrier. Insurance companies would 'win' based on how cheaply they could provide insurance to individuals and families, and the less care delivered, the lower the premiums. I don't see what would prevent those vendors from suggesting each and every injured or ill worker or dependent tried bed rest and over the counter drugs for two weeks, then an x-ray or basic lab test, and only then would they get to see a diagnostician.

What does this mean for you?
Health care reform based on an individual market would work against employers' desires and needs, and over the long term, against the nation's best interests.

November 12, 2007

Dumber than a box of rocks

Just when you think the health insurance industry just could not do anything more self-destructively stupid, they raise the bar.

From FierceHealthcare comes the news that HealthNet actually paid bonuses to staff based on how many claimant policies they could terminate.

Continue reading "Dumber than a box of rocks" »

June 5, 2007

How many uninsured are there, really?

The Democratic Presidential debate in New Hampshire earlier this week highlighted a bit of confusion about how many people in the US do not have health insurance.

The answer is 44.8 million, including 8 million kids. Read on for the details...

Continue reading "How many uninsured are there, really?" »

June 4, 2007

When chickens come home to roost

Some well-intentioned but really misguided legislators in California are proposing to force insurance companies to get regulatory approval before raising rates, copays, or deductibles.

Now that is one really bad idea, an idea that likely never would have come up if not for some really bad decisions by insurers.

Continue reading "When chickens come home to roost" »

May 24, 2007

Should we just let Darwin decide?

If only it were that easy. I'm talking about the legislation proposed in Michigan to allow motorcyclists to ride without helmets. If they are dumb enough to do that, fine. Except we end up paying their health care bills, which is most definitely not fine.

Continue reading "Should we just let Darwin decide?" »

When is entitlement spending bad?

When it is spending by the other party. Bob Laszewski points out the hypocrisy of Pres. Bush's latest rant about the Democratic budget bill's "excessive" discretionary spending.

Bob notes that Bush's opposition to entitlement spending is a rather new thing, as he was not opposed to passing the Medicare Part D bill, one that saddled taxpayers with an $8 trillion debt.

April 3, 2007

Debunking the med mal monster

More evidence is emerging about the rather minimal impact medical malpractice has on medical costs.

Continue reading "Debunking the med mal monster" »

January 30, 2007

Regulation v insurance

In a move designed to reassert control over the mechanisms of government, Pres. Bush recently signed an executive order requiring all regulatory directives be approved by political appointees. (registration required)

This will have a significant impact on occupational health initiatives, regulations, and enforcement.

Continue reading "Regulation v insurance" »

January 1, 2007

Catching up

Ten days away does wonders.

My real job was rather hectic last year, so I missed out on a few notable events, and finally got a few minutes to warap up some of 2006's more interesting developments.

Continue reading "Catching up" »

December 19, 2006

Cavalcade of Risk is up

Hank Stern of InsureBlog has posted the latest from the world of risk management and related topics. There's interesting and wide-ranging stuff from car insurance to physician credentialing.

December 18, 2006

Community rating

I've been virtually talking with other interested parties and staff from Sen. Ron Wyden's (D OR) office about his Healthy Americans Act and how it deals with pricing. Here's my preliminary take.

There are two core concepts central to HAA's viability. First, universal coverage. If everyone has coverage, than there is no (or at least a lot less) need for providers to charge folks with insurance more to cover their losses incurred when they treat people without insurance. Cost-shifting drives up health insurance costs for those folks fortunate and employed enough to have coverage.

Continue reading "Community rating" »

November 27, 2006

What insurance people are really like

Non-insurance folks, especially those who aren't happy with their insurance for whatever reason, or those seeking to write best-selling books (John Grisham, for one), use some pretty strong adjectives describing the heartless penny-pinching mean-spirited folk who are "the insurance company".

While I don't doubt that a few individuals and insurance companies really are cold-hearted emotionless drones, I've met very few that fit that description.

This was brought to mind recently while listening in on a meeting at an insurance company.

Continue reading "What insurance people are really like" »

October 2, 2006

Florida's State CFO race

Florida is one of, or perhaps the only, state to have as an official elected position a state CFO. The incumbent is supposed to oversee state spending, review state contracts and investigate insurance fraud among other functions. Florida's CFO is also part of the four person cabinet along with the governor, attorney general, and Commission of Agriculture and Consumer Affairs.

Obviously, the CFO would have a broad and deep impact on the state's insurance industry, the provision of same, and purchase of insurance by the state. That makes it interesting for we insurance types.

Continue reading "Florida's State CFO race" »

September 6, 2006

McClellan's legacy

Mark McClellan is leaving his post as head of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. He served long and loyally, sticking to the Administration's line even when facts indicated otherwise, remaining a calming force when Part D enrollment was going nowhere. McClellan is also known for listening hard to suggestions and criticism from all sides, and working diligently to address problems.

Here's what's happened during his tenure.

Part D was passed, implemented, and operational. This was a monumental task, and one McClellan was instrumental in accomplishing. It's not his fault it is a fatally flawed program; well, maybe it is, in some small part, as he was probably involved in writing/editing/opining on the legislation. Nevertheless, under McClellan the program became reality, with the initial enrollment problems addressed (in large part).

Continue reading "McClellan's legacy" »

July 10, 2006

Insurers are starting to "get" the web...sort of

A rather interesting report from Vox Inc. reviews the websites of a dozen major insurers, revealing the good, the bad, and some pretty ugly as well. As more and more consumers are getting their quotes over the internet, the usability of web sites is getting more and more important. If you've been near a TV any time over the last few months, you've probably seen the ubiquitous Progressive guy talking about their site. Well, he and his fellow pitchpeople have been very effective in driving traffic; 68% of consumers are now getting quotes over the web; 55% over the phone.
That's a remarkable statistic.

One really interesting takeaway (mine, not their's) is that compared to user-specific needs such as finding an agent and accessing a policy, way too much space is devoted to institutional image.

There is some very useful information in the report, info that all marketing, sales, PR, and exec staff would be well-advised to spend some quality time reviewing.

And don't complain you don't have time - this is how people are buying your stuff, so it is the most important thing you could be doing.

June 16, 2006

The smart money is buying TPAs

Sedgwick CMS, one of the nation's larger property and casualty TPAs, is getting even bigger. The company will be acquiring Comp Management Inc. (CMI) for just under $200 million.

This marks the first expansion of Sedgwick since its sale to Fidelity National earlier in the year. Sedgwick acquired California-based disability management and administration firm VPA in May. Prior to that deal, Sedgwick had primarily grown organically; the new owners look to be very interested in gaining size and competencies as quickly as possible.

CMI had been on an expansion trajectory of its own, branching out into medical malpractice administration with the acquisition of Octagon in 2003, a deal that also significantly expanded CMI's west coast presence. CMI was owned by investment firm Security Capital Corp. of Greenwich Ct.

Broadspire is another TPA acquired by an investment firm. This deal, which transferred the somewhat-damaged Kemper National Services TPA to Platinum Equity, was the first of a series of acquisitions that have propelled the combined entity into the top tier of TPAs in terms of market size. RSKCO and Cunningham Lindsey were added to the portfolio in 2004. Since that deal, Broadspire has been selling off assets that appear to be tangential to its core claims adjudication business; the disability management operation went to Aetna and Bureau Veritas picked up the loss control/safety division earlier this year.

These deals are not the only sign of interest on the part of the investment community in the P&C world. The level and amount of interest in TPAs has grown exponentially over the past year; my sense is the industry is perceived to be ripe for consolidation; backward in terms of technology, business process streamlining, and operational excellence; and significantly less profitable than it could be.

I agree.

May 12, 2006

AIG's troubles continue

AIG's stock price took a major hit yesterday due to a combination of missed earnings at a subsidiary company, payment of a $1.64 billon fine, and a drop in income from derivatives.

One of the factors driving the fine was AIG's failure to pay workers compensation premium taxes in a number of jurisdictions in past years. This malfeasance, coupled with contingent commissions, fabricated insurance quotes and other anti-competitive behavior, is a growing stain on a once-proud company, a stain that doesn't appear to be fading.

May 11, 2006

Those brainy Dutch

In one of the more creative approaches to managing employee disability expense, an insurance company in Holland is issuing policies to employers who may suffer from significant increases in employee disability during the upcoming Soccer (sorry, Football) World Cup.

Dutch companies are required by law to pay employees out of work due to illness, and when tens of thousands of workers called in sick during the European Championships in 2004, a business opportunity was created. Insurance policies only pick up the payments after two weeks of absence, but the new policy, underwritted by SEZ, will cover absences the day of and the day after Dutch soccer matches.

Now if they could only set up a policy to cover Wisconsin employers for the first day of deer season...

May 3, 2006

Insurers are waking up to bird flu's potential

At last the insurance industry is starting to take notice of the potential financial impact of avian flu. And it's not pretty.

"Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, simultaneously causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns at a time when insurers most need liquidity, and reduced staff and management productivity through the spreading of sickness among company personnel," stated Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling."

In contrast to the intellectual financial modeling of RMS, Risk and Insurance magazine published a timeline of a human-to-human transmissable flu scenario that is scarier than Freddie Krueger.

(I posted on the potential impact of avian flu on health and life insurers some weeks ago.)

For those readers really interested in the whole bird flu thing, there are two blogs that are really really good. Roy Poses et al at Health Care Renewal do an excellent job of sorting through the chaff to find the wheat. And the anonymous public health officials at Effect Measure are way in front of politicians on all aspects of this.

March 13, 2006

Medical malpractice costs

Medical malpractice tort cost factoid - total expenses in 2004 were just under $29 billion; 2003 costs were $26.5 billion.

O perhaps I should characterize this as a "possibly fact-oid", as the source's definition of what constitutes "tort costs" appears a little shaky.

And is not verifiable.

And includes "administrative expenses".

And this is from a company that prides itself on actuarial research?

In any event, a small fraction of total medical costs - about a half a percent.

March 12, 2006

Those awful insurance companies

Those awful insurance companies are at it again, screwing up payments to doctors, causing lawsuits, strife, accusations and counter-accusations. While it looks like the same old case of an insurer short-changing physicians, it isn't.

Horizon Blue Cross of NJ paid 600 cardiologists too much. Over a two year period, Horizon paid these lucky docs $15 million more than they should have. The case is now settled, the docs paid some of the dollars back, and things look to be calming down.

As one who spent years working for managed care firms, insurance companies, workers comp managed care firms and workers comp insurers, I am not terribly surprised that Horizon overpaid docs. Im sure this happens every day, and that most payers are guilty of the same type of mistakes.

Point being, whenever an insurance company is accused of short-paying docs or policyholders, they are accused of fraud, denial of care, interfering in the physician - patient relationship, and just being awful people in general. While this level of opprobrium may occasionally be justified, my educated suspicion is in the majority of these cases the insurer either screwed up or there is an honest disagreement.

Most of the folks at insurance companies are people who are trying to do the right thing, working pretty hard, and concerned about how their customers perceive them. Sure, a few have horns and a tail, but that is true in all businesses.

Even in cardiology practices.

March 4, 2006

Medical malpractice - fixed or broken?

The medical malpractice insurance business is either back under control and meeting the needs of the market without the benefit of major and widespread tort reform, or is in crisis, near death, and likely to expire without major tort reform.

Where you sit determines what you see.

From consumer watchdog group Americans for Insurance Reform comes the following excerpt from their press release:

"Americans for Insurance Reform (AIR) released a new study today confirming the wholesale decline of medical malpractice insurance rates nationwide. The AIR study also shows that this phenomenon is occurring whether or not states enacted restrictions on patients' legal rights, such as "caps" on compensation. The medical malpractice insurance "crisis" is over, according to the study.
AIR's study is based on the most recent Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers survey of market conditions, showing that the average rate hike for doctors over the past six months has been 0 percent. This is following similar results for the last quarter of 2004, which saw rates rising only 3 percent at the end of that year. By comparison, rates jumped 63 percent during the same quarter of 2002. "

In contrast, the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers released their own interpretation of the numbers, noting:

"… to interpret that data to mean that the 'crisis' is over is a gross misrepresentation of the situation," Crerar said. "First of all, having rates stabilize for one or two quarters doesn't mean those rates have gone down. It only means that they have not gone up any farther. It is like saying that just because gasoline costs $2.50 a gallon today, down from $3 a gallon last year, we don't have an energy crisis, and gas is cheap."

CIAB also finds fault with AIR's math, and reading CIAB's interpretation it does appear the Americans for Insurance Reform could do with a little more practice with the calculator.

So, what's the real deal?

Well, the malpractice "crisis" is partially related to insurance cycles (we're in a transition from a hard market to a confused one right now), and as I've noted before, has a relatively small impact on overall health care costs. While the med mal debate is interesting, it is a sideshow - med mal is not a major force in US health care.

That said, the interesting point is that the drop in rates is occuring in states that implemented tort reform and those that did not. Makes one wonder what influence tort reform has on costs...

February 20, 2006

Iraq's impact on insurers

The continuing strife in Iraq and Afghanistan and its effect on the insurance and employer communities is the subject of an excellent monograph by Robert Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute. Hartwig notes as the returning veterans are reintegrated into the working community, employers will face challenges addressing the needs of vets with physical and/or mental health problems resulting from the conflict.

The Americans with Disabilities Act requires employers to make reasonable accommodations for employees with disabilities. And, with over 15,000 servicemen and women injured to date, and about 30% of all troops serving in these areas citizen soldiers - either from the National Guard or Reserves - many will come back to employers who will need to address their unique circumstances.

The impact may well have a significant impact on workers compensation. According to Dr. Hartwig, workplace claims arising from injuries suffered during these conflicts will be covered by workers compensation insurance. Many of the states have shut down their Second Injury Funds, financial pools designed to cover injuries arising from previous claims. Now, with these funds disappearing, the financial liability for claims related to wartime injuries will be the responsibility of workers comp insurers and self-insured employers.

Taking into account the Pentagon's plans through 2009, present troop levels and injury rates, Hartwig predicts more than 60,000 wounded troops will be returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.

What does this mean for you?

A "hidden tax" on insurers, adding to the total cost of these conflicts.

February 6, 2006

Medical Malpractice - crisis, what crisis?

An excellent review of the realities and myth behind medical malpractice is on Kate Steadman's Health Policy blog. The series of posts are a sort of book report on Tom Baker's The Medical Malpractice Myth.

I've posted on med mal before, as has Ezra Klein - both using the article published in Health Affairs last year as the basis for the posts. But Kate's is the best rebuttal of the myth I've come across.

What does this mean for you?

Medical malpractice insurance is NOT a meaningful contributor to health cost inflation. Medical errors certainly are - remember to distinguish between the two.

February 2, 2006

AIG, General Re face Federal charges

A potential legal blockbuster involving top executives at General Re and AIG was disclosed in today's New York Times. According to the Times' report, three former top executives at Berkshire Hathaway's General Re subsidiary and the former head of AIG's reinsurance operation are to be charged today with civil and criminal complaints stemming from AIG's alleged use of improper financial transactions to boost reserves.

The charges have been brewing for months, and are among the most serious offenses that emerged from NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigations into AIG. Of note, unlike previous charges which were filed at the state level by Spitzer and other state attorneys general, the complaints will be filed at the Federal level by the US Justice Department and the SEC. The reason is these charges are related to stock manipulation, a Federal issue.

At the risk of way over-simplifying the situation, it appears that AIG and General Re are charged with entering into a financial transaction designed to artificially add $500 million to AIG's reserves in 2000 and 2001. However, the transaction did not meet the legal test necessary to qualify as an insurance policy, and was actually a loan. Why is that important? Unlike a straight insurance claim that transfers cash based on a legal claim from the insurer to the policyholder (your house burns down, the insurance company sends you a check for $400,000), a loan counts as a liability on the balance sheet (you take out a mortgage on your house for $400,000) (and the cash proceeds count as an asset).

This is not just a one-and-done thing, as it appears AIG and its chairman engaged in an ongoing effort to pump up the balance sheet, smoothing out earnings to keep the stock price heading ever upward.

This particular part of the mess arises out of the allegedly fraudulent accounting for the policy/loan. The deal served to make AIG's financial statements appear stronger than they actually were. It appears this was an attempt to manipulate AIG's stock price, a charge that has been levied against Hank Greenberg, the ousted chairman of AIG.

General Re is owned by Berkshire Hathaway, whose chairman Warren Buffett was not aware of the nature of the transaction. There are back and forth claims about what he knew and when he knew it, but the Times article is pretty clear that Buffett's participation was likely after the fact and did not cross the line into illegal activity.

What does this mean for you?

The insurance scandals just will not go away, and this announcement means they'll be with us for a while.

January 29, 2006

HSAs - what's the point?

There are several missing points in the ongoing debates about HSAs.

1. Much of the adoption of HSAs has been due to employers eliminating their other plans in favor of CDHP-HSA plans. So, the argument that individuals are jumping on the bandwagon is a little disingenuous.

2. Employers are dumping their regular plans (well, a few are, most are not) because they can't afford to buy health insurance for their workers any more. And a big part of the reason they can't is because of cost-shifting from the uninsured to the insured. The uninsured get care, they just don't pay for it. see http://www.joepaduda.com/archives/000395.html for more on this.

3. The larger employers who are offering HSAs are seeing very low adoption rates. IBM has been offering them for over two years, and less than 3% of eligibles have signed up.

The real issue is how much drag on the US economy is a result of our present funding mechanism for health care. Clearly health care costs play a role in the industrial competitiveness of US companies; the HSA-CDHP debate merely clouds the overall issue - if we don't get our act together we will get our economic butt kicked.

January 25, 2006

Immigrant workers issues

Friend and colleague Peter Rousmaniere has started a new blog dealing with immigrant worker issues. Peter is a well-known author on all things workers comp, occupational health and safety, and an insightful critic at large.

One of Peter's more troubling findings is the tendency of alien workers to not report occupational injuries or illnesses. With the large number of immigrants working in the US today, and the well-publicized decline in the occupational injury rate, I'm wondering if there is a relationship between the two.

Are migrant workers replacing citizens, then getting injured and not reporting it, thereby artificially reducing the reported injury rate?

Anyone?

January 9, 2006

TRIA extension provisions' impact

The extension of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act was met with lukewarm enthusiasm by the insurance industry, for good reason. However, it was likely the best that could be obtained given the strong political desire on the part of Congress and the Administration to mitigate the Feds' risk.

There have been significant changes to TRIA, which will be in place through the end of 2007. Here are a couple of the key provisions and the impact of same.

1. In 2007 the insurance industry's "deductible" will increase to 20% of direct earned premium from 17.5%. The result - more risk at the insurer level.
2. The share of the risk that the government will take will also decrease from 90% to 85%.

Modeling done by Risk Management Solutions indicates that the World Trade Center attacks, which produced a loss of $32.5 billion, would result in minimal funding through TRIA if they occurred under the 2007 provisions.

The "good news" is RMS predicts there is less than 10% likelihood that any one attack would produce a loss of this size.

What does this mean for you?

There are two components to claims costs - frequency and severity. While all of us fervently hope that no attacks occur, the realists among us are more…realistic. Therefore, while the "new" TRIA does reduce the impact of severity, it does nothing to address frequency.

Several attacks that do not meet the "deductible" would destroy the insurance industry.


December 24, 2005

Farewell 2005

I'm on holiday tomorrow thru the end of the year and will be taking a break from blogging till 2006.

Thanks to all who have made this a great year for Managed Care Matters. We're up to 6000 unique visitors per month and growing 15% each month. We've generated a lot of comments, a good bit of controversy, and some enlightened discussion.

Managed Care Matters appears to be one of the few, if not the only, occupant of the blogosphere dedicated to managed care. That's strange, if not downright wierd. The managed care industry is one of the largest in the US, is growing rapidly internationally, and has tremendous implications for the economic and health status future of the country.

So why aren't there more blogs on managed care? Lots of possible reasons, but there is clearly a need for more dialogue, discussion, and intelligent perspective.

I would encourage anyone with a bit of time (it doesn't take much), a knack for writing, and valuable insights to start a blog on managed care. Once you are up and running, let me know and we'll look at linking to you.

If you are looking for help, advice, and assistance, talk to Julie Ferguson (julie@julieferguson.com) She is the brains behind the tech stuff here; besides being a great writer she is expert in the blog business.

Enjoy the holidays and see you in 2006.

December 21, 2005

Case's strategy for Revolution Health

There is an excellent interview with Revolution Health's Steve Case in Fortune that sheds light on Case's ideas, plans, goals, and thinking about health care. His motivations are classically entrepreneurial - personal experience with a sibling wrestling with cancer, a desire to get back into a meaningful work after several years of volunteer work and "shuttling five kids to soccer practice in his Lincoln Navigator", and the perception that the health care system is broken and he can fix it, and make money doing so.

Loyal readers know I have been less than impressed with Case's strategy, team, and acquisitions to date. While I admire the audacity, I question the judgment. Take the business plan. According to Fortune;

"John Pleasants, whom Case installed as chief executive of the health group in September, says selling subscriptions to consumers and ad space to companies will be two big revenue streams. But Revolution also hopes to make money by doing everything from reselling health insurance policies offered by other companies to charging consumers for online doctor visits."

Hmmm. WebMD, MedScape, Aetna, Anthem, and about a hundred other companies are already providing lots of medical and health-related content, mostly for free. And selling ad space too.

There are lots of companies selling insurance policies (we in the industry don't call it "reselling", it is actually acting as a "broker") from your neighborhood agent to Allstate to AARP to UnitedHealthGroup to Blues Plans. Tough competitors too.

On-line doctor visits could theoretically be a revenue stream, if the doctor is a member of a network contracted with the payer, and if there is some mechanism to bill, pay, transfer funds, and adjudicate the "claim" quickly efficiently and accurately. Certainly this can be done, but a very large, Kong-size hurdle will be to convince physicians that they should participate in such a scheme with a tiny player like Revolution. This is theoretically possible, but when Anthem, Pacificare, and other large payers struggle to get docs to use their electronic systems, it makes it difficult to see how Revolution will succeed.

Again, I admire his vision, but the naivete can be breathtaking. For example, Case is quoted as saying "The healthcare system will be fundamentally different. It has to be. It's not working."

Steve, it has not been working for decades, and just because it is so obviously broken does not mean it will get fixed any time soon. See Africa's economies, the Middle East, the World Health Organizations' efforts on AIDS, polio, and river blindness, drug addiction - all very big problems that are very difficult to solve that have blunted the lances of all who have attempted to date.

Thousands of very smart people with lots of cash have tried to change the health care system (see Bill Clinton), and some are actually starting to have some verifiable success (see Kaiser for their work on electronic medical records, Aetna for educating insureds on procedure costs and premium expenses specific to their conditions). The difference is these change agents enter the fray with a deep and broad understanding of health care, providers, cost drivers and outcomes. They know health care financing and the root causes of health care inflation and patient satisfaction. They have large footprints and strong brands. And resources that make Case's $250 million look like chump change (Kaiser has already invested several billion dollars in its electronic medical record initiative alone…).

I'll close with another quote from Fortune talking about Case's core concept, consumer-directed health care.

"Princeton health economist Uwe Reinhardt likens the "consumer-driven guys" to architects touting a huge, new skyscraper before they've had engineers figure out whether it's feasible to build. "They haven't even finished the blueprint," he says.

Case doesn't disagree. "We've only been at this for a few months and still have a lot to learn," he says. But he isn't discouraged by the industry's limited success. "People say, 'Well, some of these consumer-driven ideas, they've been tried and they haven't been successful.' But that doesn't mean they're not good ideas." As Case sees it, consumer-driven health care is about much more than how high you set the deductible in an insurance plan. "For us, it's about how you move the patient back to the centre of the system," he says.

It's a great line. But what does it mean? Case won't get into details, including financials. But Revolution Health's plan reveals that Case is pursuing the same strategy as his old company: He's going to launch a web portal next year, just as AOL did this year."

What does this mean for you?

With apologies, here's the old joke -" how do you make a million in health care? Start a consumer-directed/web portal plan with $250 million".

December 6, 2005

Employer-based health insurance

There continues to be an ongoing discussion in this country regarding who or what entity should be responsible for providing health insurance. The ends of the spectrum are the strong conservatives/libertarians who are in favor of total individual responsibility for paying health care costs; at the other end are the strong liberals who favor single payer, universal coverage funded and mandated by the government.

In reality we have a "hybrid" system, or perhaps more accurately a mish-mash of individual coverage, employer-based insurance, governmental programs and tax-payer and employer-subsidized care for the uninsured (although this takes the form of a hidden tax).

The reality is we have universal coverage funded by individuals, employers, tax-payers, and providers. Everyone has access to care, although some do not have access to the same level of care or the same providers.

For working age Americans, most insurance coverage is provided through their employers. Although there has been a trend towards fewer employers offering coverage (60% in 2005, down from 69% in 2000), in general larger employers and those with average annual employee earnings above $21,000 tend to offer health insurance.

And the latest information is that this is not likely to change anytime soon. While national health insurance provided by the government would certainly help manufacturing companies such as GM and Ford, there does not appear to by any traction for other funding mechanisms.

An article in the New York Times on employer-based health insurance focused on this issue, and is well worth reading. One passage reads:

"What is also clear, though, is that there are no clear alternatives. Corporate executives and many others are leery of a government solution, but no one has come up with a private-sector option that has gained significant support. Because individuals who buy private insurance on their own pay much higher prices than the group rates employers get, many people could probably not afford health insurance if their employers were not buying it for them."

The present political climate makes it unlikely that any nationalized system will emerge in the near term. Until and unless large employers, and the middle class, feels pain, there will be no change. That said, my sense is we are approaching that point. With the percentage of employers offering health insurance declining by nine points in five years, more and more soccer moms will soon be directly impacted by this trend. This is a powerful and vocal demographic that will make its presence felt.

What does this mean for you?

Change is coming; the next Congressional election will indicate how soon and provide some hints as to the direction of the health care debate.

November 13, 2005

Terrorism Act (TRIA) extension in the works

It looks like Congress may actually do something about terrorism insurance. The government insurance program, set to expire at the end of this year, provides reinsurance for property and casualty lines (property, workers comp, auto) when claims are incurred as a result of foreign terrorists. After a high deductible, the government kicks in to pay most of the remainder.

The coverage, known as TRIA for Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, came into being shortly after 9/11 on a temporary basis. The reasoning behind TRIA is simple - no single insurer, nor the industry as a whole, has the financial resources to pay claims for a catastrophic terror event - think nuclear bomb in New York City, or exploding natural gas tanker in Boston.

This is a big deal. Insurance companies specifically exclude terror coverage whenever they can; property insurance is one that is particularly vulnerable to concerns about attacks. A group of 28 governors has joined together to pressure their Congressional delegations as well as the Bush administration for extension of TRIA.

For over a year, insurers had hard to get coverage extended, to no avail. The Bush administration wanted the industry to pay very high deductibles, so high that many industry experts viewed the "insurance" as little more than picking up the pieces after the industry was bankrupt. Now, news has come out that a compromise is under serious discussion in the House Financial Services Committee.

According to Insurance Journal;

"The extension proposal creates so-called "silos" for major coverage areas of workers compensation, property, casualty and NBCR (coverage for nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological attacks), with each silo being assigned its own deductible. The measure excludes commercial auto, which is now covered under TRIA, while proposing to add group life. Insurers would be required to offer NBCR coverage.

Federal intervention would be triggered only if losses exceed $50 million in 2006 and $100 million in 2007.

In the new plan, the distinction between foreign and purely domestic acts of terrorism would be removed so that domestic terrorism would be covered.
The co-share paid by insurers, which is now at 10% for all triggered events, would increase for smaller events and decrease for so-called mega events, with a 20% co-share for the first $10 billion down to 5% for events more than $40 billion.
Insurers would pay back any federal monies through policyholder premium surcharges that would be capped at 3%."

Sounds workable, but there is one major problem; the term of the new TRIA is two years, so we could very well find ourselves back at this in a year, worried about the potential implications of a soon-to-expire law.

The good news is Congress may actually get something done; the bad news is they seem to have forgotten the old saw "if you don't have time to do something right the first time, what makes you think you'll have time to fix it"…

What does this mean for you?

TRIA's extension would be good news for everyone in the industry, and buyers as well.

November 11, 2005

What Ryan did say about Aon and other topics

More on Pat Ryan, CEO of Aon Corp., and his comments at the IRMI conference earlier this week.

Ryan spent a fair amount of time commenting on the Spitzer investigations and impact thereof. He noted that the sheer time and resources required to respond to the Attorney General's inquiries, along with the potential for ongoing negative press, played a large part in Aon's decision to settle the case.

Ryan also noted that Aon has embraced the concept and reality of transparency, wherein all clients would know exactly what Aon was being paid and by whom for what work. Aon has abandoned the contingent commission revenue model, which has led the company to increase fees to some customers.

His comments on transparency and Aon's commitment to same were direct, comprehensive, and revealing. Ryan clearly understands that the landscape has changed, that the old ways of doing business are no longer acceptable, and that Aon must operate within the new reality created by Spitzer and other outside forces.

Ryan noted that while the risk managers who are his firm's main contacts were not concerned about the contingent commissions, their bosses were. Evidently Ryan heard directly from the CEOs and CFOs that they did not like the practice.

He predicted that there will be more, not less, regulation in the future, noting that "we are in the fourth inning". Here's hoping we aren't tied at the end of nine...

What does this mean for you?

While I am frustrated at Ryan's failure to mention health care costs and medical trend, his comments indicate a keen awareness of the importance of transparency and direct dealing. That is to his and his company's credit.

November 9, 2005

What Aon's Pat Ryan didn't say

I have just returned from IRMI's excellent Construction Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Interesting location for a bunch of risk averse people...

One of the keynoters was Pat Ryan, founder and chair of Aon Corp, the big broker. He gave a talk covering a wide range of topics, including Spitzer, contingent commissions, and transparency. What was notable to me was what he did not discuss, or even mention - health care costs.

I find this intriguing for a couple of reasons. First, what is more important today than health care costs? Health care costs are contributing to his clients' risks in employee benefits, workers comp, auto, general liability etc. And, medical expenses in the property and casualty lines are increasing at a rate substantially faster than in group health (10-12% v. 8.2%). What could be more important, more significant, than health expense inflation?

Second, Aon is making a big push to become the expert in data mining, analytics, and assessment to better predict and manage "risk"; broadly defined. In this context, risk could include flood, wind, politics, etc. Since our focus here is on health care, we'll stick to that. Unfortunately, Aon's attempts to date to assess and evaluate medical expense in the workers comp world, at least the public reporting of same, reflect a dangerously superficial understanding of medical expense, providers, practice pattern variation, etc. (note - sources indicate Aon's understanding is not any better when presented in private meetings..).

If this initiative is so important to Aon, why would it not be part of a speech to 1500 eager listeners, and why would it not incorporate even a mention of what Aon is doing to help customers deal with this to-date-unmanageable problem - health care cost inflation.

If Aon is all about managing risk, it better learn something about medical expenses soon. And the company sure can do a better job in presenting itself as an expert in same.

What does this mean for you?

Watch out for consultants that don't understand what is really driving your claims costs.

October 10, 2005

Katrina's insured costs at $34 billion

Katrina is now officially the most expensive insured event in US history. The latest figures put insured claims to date at $34.4 billion, significantly higher than the costs associated with other hurricanes or the 9/11 attacks. Adding Rita's projected expense brings the total for the season to date to about $70 billion.

And this is just the insured losses on claims filed to date. Estimates of future claims from Katrina push the total amount to between $40 and $55 billion.

This was shaping up to be a nicely profitable year for the industry; those profits have disappeared under the waters of these disasters. Pessimists will note that the hurricane season still has some months to run; insurance executives are keeping fingers crossed in hopes that another storm does not make landfall this year.

What does this mean for you?

Costs for all lines of insurance will increase for all renewals in coming months, with the sharpest increases in property and homeowners, especially in hurricane-prone areas and coastal regions.

Reinsurers will get mighty picky about the underwriting underlying their primary insurers; expect to see more limitations and exclusions.

October 4, 2005

GHI-HIP merger in NY

The mergers among health plans continued yesterday, with New York's GHI and HIP announcing their intention to join forces to create the state's largest single health plan. With four million members and $7 billion in revenues, the not-for-profits would dominate the New York metropolitan area, with especially strong market share in the municipal, blue- and pink-collar demographics.

HIP, the smaller of the two plans with 1.4 million members, also owns Vytra Health and Connecticare. The Connecticare acquisition was one of the more intriguing deals in recent years, as it combined two different models with distinct membership demographics, while adding broader geographic coverage to HIP. The company recently announced plans to acquire a high-deductible health insurance provider, PerfectHealth Insurance Co.

GHI covers 2.6 million members in the NYC, upstate, and northern New Jersey area, covering over 2/3 of City employees. GHI has extensive experience in administering governmental programs including state contract work on mental health, coordination of benefits, and Medicare + Choice.

We have been following this trend for quite a while, and with the two largest not for profit health plans in the nation's most concentrated market merging, it is even more clear that consolidation will continue and likely accelerate. The merger sets up an interesting battle between the merged entity, the Oxford-United combination, and Wellpoint - Wellchoice for share in this key market.

What does this mean for you?

If you run a health plan or TPA in the NYC area, batten down the hatches; there will be a lot of collateral damage to smaller insurance and health coverage providers as these three giants go at each other.

September 29, 2005

Spitzer subpeonas St Paul/Travelers

Eliot Spitzer, New York Attorney General and terror of the insurance industry, has just subpeona'd insurer St Paul Travelers for documents and information related to workers compensation. No further details were immediately available either from the AG or St Paul Travelers.

The company is one of the largest WC insurers and administrators in the nation, ranked #4 or 5, depending on criteria used.

September 26, 2005

Marsh hammered again

The investigations into broker/insurer malfeasance continued to make their presence felt last week, as Conn. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal announced the expansion of the state's charges against Marsh. Blumenthal, never one to avoid the limelight, said

"We have uncovered powerful evidence of a systematic scheme to raise insurance prices," Blumenthal said. "We also have strong evidence of bid rigging, victimizing specific Connecticut consumers and companies. In essence, Marsh established a toll both between insurers and consumers, and the toll exacted was heavy. Creating the illusion of free and open competition, insurers agreed to provide Marsh with rigged or fictitious quotes in exchange for the prospect of submitting winning bids on future placements. Marsh threatened retaliation against non-players."

According to Insurance Journal;

"One insurer wrote about a Marsh "broking plan": "This is another protection job... Our rating has risk at $890,000 and I advised (Marsh) that we could get to $850,000 if needed. (A Marsh broker) gave me song & dance that game plan is for AIG at $850,000 and not to commit our ability in writing!"

The amended complaint identifies several major Connecticut businesses that were harmed by Marsh's bid-rigging and price-fixing plan, including Hubbell Inc., Kaman Corp., Hexcel Corp., and Bridgeport Hospital.

Marsh has about 2,800 policyholder clients in Connecticut - 300 of them large businesses or government entities. Its corporate clients in the state also include Bic Corporation, United Technologies Corporation, Carvel Corporation, Ethan Allen Furniture, Timex Corporation, Xerox Corporation and General Electric Company.

The company's state and municipal clients include the Connecticut Department of Administrative Services (DAS), and the cities and towns of Hartford, New Haven, Stamford, Manchester, West Hartford, and West Haven. Marsh was also the insurance broker for several large, publicly supported state construction projects, including Adriaen's Landing. Marsh's nonprofit clients include Yale University, Mystic Seaport and the Save the Children Federation.

The announcement of the expanded charges against Marsh came the same day Blumenthal announced that insurer ACE Financial Solutions Inc. had agreed to pay $40,000 to the state to settle allegations for a scheme in which ACE paid Marsh a secret $50,000 commission to steer an $80 million state contract to the company."

The scandal that will not go away lives on.

What does this mean for you?

Yet more evidence that crime doesn't pay, and practices that were once accepted with a wink and a nod can get you in serious trouble.

September 16, 2005

Eight more indicted by Spitzer in insurance probe

For those who thought New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation into the insurance industry was fading away, the news that eight former Marsh executives have been indicted on various charges served notice that if anything, Spitzer et al are just now hitting their stride.

According to Insurance Journal;

"The former executives are accused of colluding with executives at leading insurance companies to arrange noncompetitive bids and conveying these bids to Marsh clients under false pretenses…The indictment charges that from November 1998 to September 2004, the defendants colluded with executives at American International Group, Zurich American Insurance Company, ACE USA, Liberty International Insurance Company and other companies to rig the market for excess casualty insurance.

According to the indictment, defendants and other Marsh employees told their excess casualty clients that they obtained bids for their business from insurance companies in an open and competitive bidding process. In fact, the indictment maintains, defendants had rigged the process in the following ways: First, before any bids were submitted, the defendants determined which insurance company would win the business. Second, they set a "target" for the winner to submit as its bid. Third, they obtained losing bids, which they called "B quotes," from other participating insurance companies.

By misleading customers into believing that the customers' interests came first, the conspirators fraudulently obtained millions of dollars in commissions and fees for Marsh and millions of dollars in premiums for the insurance companies, according to Spitzer's charges. The victim companies ranged from high technology firms to a fruit cannery to a cosmetics manufacturer."

Notably, Marsh itself, who has already settled w Spitzer et al, was not indicted in this latest round.

Aon and Willis, two other top brokers, have also agreed to pay restitution totaling over $300 million. Among the insurers accused of improper/illegal activity, ACE, AIG, Zurich and Liberty have not yet reached resolution with Spitzer.

Given their status, it is highly likely these carriers will find themselves in the news in the near future. And, given Spitzer's proven ability to obtain testimony from one party against other subjects, the new indictments may enable the AG to gather more precise information on the activities, transgressions, and participants in same in the insurance industry.

What does this mean for you?

A lesson in bad crisis management - the longer this continues, the more damage is done. Get it all out, get it out fast, and don't dissemble.

September 11, 2005

Katrina's insured losses

Katrina's impact on the insurance industry will be greater than first anticipated. With insured losses now estimated to be in the $30 billion to $60 billion range, this hurricane is the most expensive event in insurance history.

Losses are from wind, flood, and fire, and will certainly include property, business interruption, fire, flood, environmental liability and impairment, crime, life, and health. The latest estimates from Risk Management Solutions are for losses of $15 - $25 billion for the New Orleans flood alone, with the rest of the costs for other losses due to other causes.

The impact of Katrina will be felt in all lines of insurance around the globe. Because a substantial portion of the losses will be borne by reinsurers, excess premium rates will increase to help cover costs while availability will decrease. In turn, primary insurers will have to raise rates to cover their losses and the increased reinsurance premiums.

Fortunately, Katrina came at a time when overall property and casualty insurance rates have been decreasing. According to MarketScout, property insurance rates dropped 7% over the last year, while workers' comp rates decreased 7%, inland marine 5%, and umbrella/excess 11%. Overall, P&C rates were down 6% over the prior year.

Predictions in the industry are for rates to stay level if not increase slightly. The good news for insurance buyers is the industry is quite healthy with solid profits and substantial increases in reserves over the last two years.

While the insurance industry is much maligned, events like Katrina clearly demonstrate the industry's value to society. By spreading risk across a very wide customer base, the industry will be able to cover losses while continuing to provide coverage for those who desire insurance.

What does this mean for you?

As devastating as Katrina has been and will continue to be, the insurance industry has weathered this most devastating of storms, and will come through in fine shape. That is good news.

September 2, 2005

Katrina's costs by individual insurer

Insurance Journal has posted a quick summary of the potential impact of Katrina on insurance. Here are excerpts.

Note that some of the insurers below are reinsurers, who provide insurance to primary insurers who want to protect themselves from excessive claims resulting from disasters like Katrina.

Insurance Journal -

* Vesta Insurance Group Inc. (VTA.N:) said on Sept. 1 it expects the preliminary gross loss from the first landfall of Hurricane Katrina to be in the range of $500,000 to $1.2 million.

* Alfa Corp. (ALFA.O:) said on Sept. 1 preliminary estimates indicate storm losses will be less than $125 million, with no impact on its third quarter earnings. EUROPE

* World's largest reinsurer, Munich Re (MUVGn.DE:), said on Aug. 30 it may have claims of up to 400 million euros ($488 million), before taxes and before the amount the company can pass on to other reinsurers. It expects the overall insured loss to be $15 billion to $20 billion.

* The Lloyd's of London insurance market said on Aug. 30 it expects to receive "significant insurance claims," largely from offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, property damage and claims from businesses forced to close. It has asked all the insurers to supply claims estimates by Sept. 12.

* Hannover Re (HNRGn.DE:), the world's fourth largest reinsurer, said on Aug. 31 it was "extremely unlikely" to hit its 430 million to 470 million euros profit target for 2005 as a result of claims from Katrina. It expects Katrina to be the most costly U.S. storm, topping Hurricane Andrew's bill of about $21 billion.

* Swiss Re (RUKN.VX:), the world's second largest reinsurer, said on Aug. 31 it expects claims of about $500 million. It forecast total insured losses of around $20 billion.

* Paris-based reinsurer Scor (SCOR.PA:) said on Sept. 1 Katrina may cost it 25 million to 35 million euros.

* Converium (CHRN.S:), the Zurich-based reinsurance company, said on Sept. 1 it saw claims from the hurricane of between $10 million and $20 million. It put the total bill to the industry as a whole at around $25 billion.

($1=.8197 Euro)

Note that these statements were from yesterday and the days before - the latest news out of New Orleans, Mississippi, Alabama, and other areas indicates that losses from looting, flooding, fires, and other causes may significantly increase total claims. In addition, follow on problems such as hospitals losing electricity, generators failing, and emergency services problems may add to the loss of life and thereby increase claims.

Note - I'm trying to keep this objective and dispassionate. That is incredibly difficult. This is not merely a financial disaster, it is a human tragedy on so many levels. Do not misinterpret the tone of these posts as one that implies lack of concern or awareness of the human impact of Katrina. Thanks.

Another bad broker caught

The latest insurance broker to plead guilty (without actually pleading guilty) is HRH, aka Hilb Rogal &Hobbs, who agreed to pay $30 million into a compensation fund plus a $250,000 fine to settle charges related to rebating, account steering, and broker compensation activities at it's Connecticut subsidiary.

According to Insurance Journal;

"The state complaint against HRH centered on its dealings with a hospital management company. The state claimed that HRH shared commissions with Women's Health USA Connecticut and steered clients to preferred brokers to win bigger commissions. State law forbids rebating by brokers to clients. Women's Health Connecticut has denied it received rebates or shared commissions. The settlement indicates that HRH's Hartford office disguised the deals…The (Connecticut State Attorney General Blumenthal) AG had alleged that HRH unlawfully steered clients to favored insurance carriers to qualify for larger bonuses and contingent commissions; moved blocks of clients to favored insurers to qualify for larger bonuses and contingent commissions; implemented a "carrier consolidation" program expressly designed to steer clients to a select group of insurers in order to qualify for larger bonuses and override commissions; placed clients in "producer captive" insurance carriers of which HRH owned all or part without disclosing that ownership interest to its clients; entered into undisclosed fee arrangements whereby insurers paid undisclosed compensation to HRH for the placement of insurance; paid improper premium rebates to clients in return for that client retaining HRH as its broker; and provided preferred insurers with first looks on books of business that HRH wished to move to preferred carriers in order to increase HRH's bonus and contingent compensation."

Leaving aside Blumenthal's penchant for the limelight and well-documented ability to gain publicity, what is particularly notable about this case is it represents a very significant financial penalty hitting one mid-tier broker for activities related to one client in one very small state.

It begs the question, how many more shoes are likely to fall, and what size will they be?


September 1, 2005

More on Katrina's impact on insurance costs

New information indicates the impact of Katrina on the insurance industry will likely be greater than originally forecast. Post-storm flooding throughout the area, and related damage to commercial businesses and private property appears likely to drive insured claims for Katrina over $17 billion to perhaps $25 billion.

In addition, the Federally run flood insurance program will take a big hit. The program, which is already underfunded (it had to borrow $300 million last year from the Treasury to cover claims from Ivan et al), provides flood insurance totaling $600 billion to 4.5 million properties, primarily in coastal areas. Expect flood rates to increase significantly and soon.
The higher claims costs and the growing recognition in the insurance community of the potential for another devastating natural or man-caused disaster will drive up insurance costs for all lines of property and casualty coverage. While some uninformed pundits contend that the only cost increases will be borne by those in areas directly affected by the storm, they fail to realize that reinsurance rates industry-wide will increase, and insurers seeking to recoup losses will have to increase prices in other, non-related lines.

What does this mean for you?

The result - the softening in the property and casualty market will likely taper off, prices will stabilize somewhat, and all of us will end up paying for Katrina.

But that's why they call it insurance.

August 9, 2005

Spitzer's Marsh probe yields another guilty plea

NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's ongoing investigation has produced another guilty plea, this time from an underwriter at Liberty International, a subsidiary of Liberty Mutual. The charge stems from bid-rigging; the underwriter, Kevin Bott, would submit unattractive bids at the direction of broker Marsh McLennan so Marsh would be able to show their client that another insurer's proposal was more attractive.

By steering their customers to specific insurers, Marsh gained additional commissions.

Bott pled guilty to a misdemeanor charge, agreed to testify, and is subject to a maximum of one year in jail.

This is the investigation that won't go away - the death by a thousand cuts, the Chinese water torture. And it shouldn't go away, as these are clearly unethical and immoral activities that are also illegal. What is most troubling is the lack of attention from some in the industry who appear to be waiting for this to end so they can go on about their business.

Those folks are sorely mistaken. The world has changed, and business as usual will not be tolerated in the future.


August 5, 2005

Spitzer's prosecution of insurance execs

NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's ongoing investigation into the insurance industry has produced guilty pleas from 14 insurance execs so far. And more prosecutions and pleas are likely in the near future. Leading the list of the guilty are Marsh with six, followed by AIG with four and Zurich with three.

Most recently, four executives pled guilty to fraud and restraint of trade charges.

Insurance Journal notes that: "according to complaints filed by Spitzer this week, all four executives (three from Marsh and one from Zurich) were part of a scheme to control the excess casualty insurance market. More guilty pleas could be forthcoming, a spokesman for Spitzer said, but he declined to comment further, citing the ongoing investigation."

What does this mean for you?

Probably more paperwork, as compliance staffs seek to prevent any future collusion or appearance of same from tainting their business transactions.

July 18, 2005

Insurer profitability

US property and casualty insurers have had their most profitable year in almost three decades, turning an underwriting net profit of $5 billion. The bad news is one of the key drivers, strong pricing, has already started to deteriorate.

The great result followed several years of declines that ended with a disastrous 2001, and marked the third consecutive year of improving profits. The improvement, driven by higher prices, a favorable regulatory environment, and more restrictive underwriting, has produced a net profit after taxes of $39 billion. While that sounds like a great pile of cash, the 9.4% return on net worth doesn't look quite as attractive when compared to other industries or historical results. One of the key reasons - the low rates of return on investment income.

By comparison, the industry had a 17.3% rate of return in 1987 with a combined ratio of 104.6, whereas the 2004 rate was 98.1. For those of us old enough to remember, interest rates and stock market returns were significantly higher in those days, allowing insurers to lose money on an underwriting basis and more than make up for it with investment income. It looks like those wonderful days of double digit returns aren't coming back any time soon.

So, despite strong underwriting , a mostly favorable regulatory environment, and few very large catastrophic events, the industry can't even come close to delivering the kinds of returns enjoyed by other sectors. Couple that with the recent evidence of softening prices and continued inability to even focus on, much less begin to control health care expenses, and one cannot be sanguine about the industry's future results.

The net - if prices continue to soften, those insurers without discipline and a focus on medical expense management (for the lines impacted by medical costs) are in for a rough ride.

What does this mean for you?

Success if you stick to the fundamentals and finally do something about medical.

AIG-Spitzer close to settlement

Reuters reports that Eliot Spitzer, NY Attorney General, is close to a settlement with AIG in the civil lawsuit filed by his office. This would be good news for both AIG and the insurance industry, which has been waiting for the proverbial "other shoe" to drop since the suit was filed earlier this year.

The most visible impact of the issue has been the departure of long-time CEO Hank Greenberg as well as the decline in stock price, with AIG's stock down 17% (compared to the S&P's 2 point drop) since the Valentine's Day announcement. An equally significant, but perhaps less visible result is the loss of management attention on key business issues affecting the company. These include -

--continued major problems with AIG's new medical bill document management program, exemplified by long delays in payment, lost bills, frustrated health care providers, and regulatory actions

-- uncertain strategic direction at recent acquisition American General. AG's target market definition seems to wander like the needle on a compass in an iron mine. This lack of focus is NOT typical to AIG.

That said, AIG is a very strong company with competent management. If their leaders can once again begin to focus on their business, and correct a decades-long underinvestment in information technology, then it will continue to succeed.

What does this mean for you?

Get crises resolved as fast as possible, and do NOT lose your focus on the franchise. Trite, but true.

July 11, 2005

Medical malpractice - what crisis?

While medical malpractice premiums were climbing dramatically from 2000 to 2004, claims did not increase at all. The finding from a study by the Center for Justice and Democracy reported in the New York Times, examined the premium and claim histories of the 15 largest med mal carriers and found that while premiums escalated 120%, claims were flat while the insurers' incurred loss ratios (ratio of claims to premiums collected) improved by almost 25% to 51.4%.

What gives? Does this mean the "med mal crisis" of a few months ago was a myth? Depends on who you listen to. The Times article notes:

"According to Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), the results of the study "have the potential to alter the debate fundamentally from seeming to cast the rapacious personal injury lawyers as the complete culprits and the insurers as innocent bystanders with doctors as victims to the insurers as equally responsible, if not more so." He does like to turn a phrase...

A ‘diabolically opposite" (one of my bride's best malaprops) view.

Lawrence Smarr -- president of the Physicians Insurers Association of America, which represents insurers owned by physicians -- said, "It's a meaningless comparison that no respectable actuary would consider." He added that malpractice insurance premiums have increased because juries have issued higher awards in lawsuits and insurers have used those awards as justification for the settlement of more claims. Smarr said, "The real problem is claim severity. It means that juries are awarding higher amounts and jury verdicts drive the potential cost of the claim so that makes settlements rise."

My take - Smarr's riposte does nothing to dispute the central result of the study - although Smarr states that claims costs are rising, the data does not support his statement. Either he has not been quoted correctly, does not have a meaningful response, or he is claiming that severity is much more important than frequency. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, I assume he is claiming the latter is true. Smarr is off base, as frequency (the number of claims) is definitely critical to an analysis of any insurance block. If severity has increased, and the total cost of claims has remained flat, than frequency must have decreased. If that is the case, then the "med mal crisis" may have been a severity-driven way to boost premiums.

What does this mean to you?

Always question your assumptions - when someone claims a study indicates a problem or clear finding, delve into the detail to determine yourself if the claim is supported by the data and analysis. To quote Ayn Rand, "always question your assumptions."

July 5, 2005

Hard markets and Soft markets

Hard market, soft market, transitional market - all are terms that insurance industry veterans have used to characterize the various stages of the "insurance industry underwriting cycle". Simply put, a hard market is when insurers are backing out of the market, insurance is expensive and getting more so, difficult to find, and likely limited when it can be obtained. Soft markets typically are marked by new entrants into the business, dropping prices, generous underwriting provisions, and aggressive discounting.

We are now in a soft market, especially in California. The next question is how did we get here and how long will it last.

Well, we got here because insurers raised rates for three years in a row beginning in 2001, thereby driving margins, and profits, up substantially. This newly profitable industry caught the attention of outside capital, which wanted to jump in on the action. Remember, those with lots of money to invest can put it into bonds (at very low interest rates) equities (with their only slightly better returns with much more risk), real estate (prices are high and speculation of a bubble rampant), or under a very large mattress.

So, among other insurance lines, workers comp looked especially good. And lots of capital jumped in, causing prices to drop. They are still declining.

The second part of the question is much harder to answer - but there are some indicators that predict it will not last nearly as long as the soft market of the late nineties. <