A new study released by Part D advocacy group Medicare Today makes a compelling case for seniors’ enrollment in Part D. Authored by the Lewin Group (an excellent and unbiased health care reseach and analysis firm) the study makes a compelling case for seniors to enroll.
It makes an equally compelling case for adverse selection.
The only seniors who are signing up are those that can make money on the program. They make money because their premiums will be less than what they are spending on drugs today (or would be tomorrow). The Lewin report provides details on who benefits the most, what the average cost is ($37.43/month), and what benefits accrue to individuals with which conditions. It’s really well done.
Make no mistake; this is not insurance.
The Part D program is akin to an ATM card where you can withdraw any amount you want, as long as you pay a set minimum price. So, seniors, no dummies when it comes to managing money, can pretty quickly figure it out.
What’s missed in the discussion about Part D is the better off seniors are, the worse off taxpayers are. The ATM account has to be funded by someone, and that someone is the beleagured taxpayer.
This is nothing short of bizarre. The Feds are actively and aggressively encouraging enrollment in a program that will cost three-quarters of a trillion dollars over the next ten years, while cutting taxes that will be needed to pay for this program.
What does this mean for you?
Really high taxes in a few years. Followed by a taxpayer revolt. After which Congress will likely authorize the Feds to negotiate pricing with big pharma. Because the only other choice is to cut benefits, and seniors would never allow that.

Rather than do the ‘reinvent the wheel’ thing, I’ll just refer you to other folks who have been “fact checking” the Administration’s claims about the 30 million who have “signed up for” Medicare Part D.
The net is this – out of the 21.3 million eligibles (not covered under some other Medicare or other Rx program), a bit over one-third have signed up for stand-alone Part D.
Matt Holt replays a Wall Street Journal article that (finally!) breaks down the actual enrollment stats by source (something Kate Steadman, Matt, and I have been blogging on for months…).
This makes me nuts because it will be used by some to make the point that governmental approaches to health care coverage do not work. And in this case, they’ll be dead on.

The Washington Post published results of a study that indicate a generally modest level of satisfaction with Part D among enrollees. According to the Post, “Three-fourths of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in the drug benefit say paperwork to sign up was easy to complete, and almost two-thirds say the program saves them money…”
I’d just point out that seniors are pretty sharp consumers, and the ones who signed up for Part D are likely those who did the math to figure out the cost-benefit.
This is called adverse selection, and is the main reason the program will not be successful over the long term. Simply put, the ones who sign up are the ones who will get more in benefits than they will pay in premiums.
Matt Holt’s Fierce Healthcare points out that the Post erred in stating that 29 million had signed up for Part D – this number actually included all seniors with some form of drug coverage from Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, or other sources, and grossly overstates the actual enrollment – which is about 30% of eligibles.
Also of note is this stat – among all seniors surveyed, (those with and without Part D coverage), 41% approve of the benefit and 45% don’t. Leaving aside the health policy issues of Part D, it sure does not look like a political win for the current Administration.

I noted a couple weeks ago the problems pharmacies in Texas have been encountering with Part D – slow pays, no pays, missing information, higher staffing costs, and the like. Now word comes that California pharmacies seem to be suffering the same side effects of Part D.
The news comes from the Sacramento Bee (free registration required), and was triggered by reports of a home-delivery pharmacy shutting its doors, at least in part due to payment problems associated with Part D. According to the Bee;
“In a CPA (California Pharmacy Association) survey about Medicare Part D, 55.8 percent of independent pharmacies said the drug program’s timing of payments has created a “significant negative financial impact” on their business.”
Ohio pharmacies, especially the independents, are also experiencing financial troubles they attribute largely to Part D. While many of these issues were recognized early this year, the financial impacts are only now really starting to be felt.
The independents don’t have large chains’ financial backing nor buying power; this will make it very difficult for those in anything less than excellent financial shape to survive while Part D is sorted out. As independents account for 43% of all pharmacies, this is no small issue.
The good news is few eligible seniors have signed up for Part D. This presents us with an interesting picture – the success of a program designed to get more drugs to more people may well have killed off many independent pharmacies.
Only in Washington could they have come up with something so creatively destructive.

It’s not often the President of the United States does health benefit plan enrollment meetings, so Bush’s recent national tour touting Part D stands out as one of the more unique moments in health benefits history. But this is more than an interesting factoid, because Bush’s speaking tour came about because of the dismal enrollment rates seen to date. And with the enrollment period ending in less than two months, it does not look like things will get much better.
While the President touts the enrollment of 25 million seniors into the program so far, 20 million of those had coverage before the program started. That leaves a total of 23 million seniors eligible for enrollment – out of which 5 million, or less than 22% have taken the plunge.
As I’ve been saying all along, any voluntary benefits plan with participation under 70% is in trouble – so Part D looks to be in big trouble.
If enrollment stays slow and low, Congress may well have to extend the enrollment period. While Bush has said that is a non-starter, he also threatened to veto any Congressional action on the Dubai Ports deal. This turned out to be a hollow threat, and with Congress increasingly independent of the White House, and Republicans seeking to salvage anything from the ashes of Part D, an extension could well be in the works.
(Bob Laszewski was the first to characterize Bush’s role in enrollment meetings)

The law of unintended consequences continues to dog the much-maligned Part D program. So far, seniors and states have been depicted as the primary victims of the program’s operational, structural, and marketing faults. Now there’s news that the program’s impact on pharmacists is resulting in political fallout for the White House.
The New York Times reported yesterday that a (free registration required) group of pharmacists from Texas met with White House political boss Karl Rove to voice concerns about Part D. While their complaints include the additional time required of pharmacists to explain the program to seniors and advise them on which of the myriad offerings works best for them, by far the more significant issue appears to be the financial fallout.
Pharmacies’ problems include slow payment by Part D vendors; lower reimbursement rates; extra labor costs incurred while (free registration required) pharmacists wrestled with administrative nightmares; and the cost of free scripts given away to seniors lost in the bureaucratic mess.
According to a pharmacist in California: “It’s really bad and it’s been a disaster for us…Our reimbursement rates have gone down. Medicare Part D has really hurt us.”
While the administrative and operational issues look to be solvable, the reimbursement issue will not go away. Pharmacists are discovering that in many cases their reimbursement under Part D is less than it was under Medicare, making Part D significantly less attractive. And that comes on top of a reduction in Medicaid drug dispensing fees that went into effect last year.
According to the pharmacists from Bush’s home state, these problems have combined to push many pharmacies, especially the mom-and-pops, to the financial brink. The result is these independent business people, many of which have been ardent supporters of the President, feel victimized by the program. Bush’s recent comment that “It’s not immoral to make sure that prescription drug pharmacists don’t overcharge the system” further alienated pharmacists.
The winners in Part D look to be big pharma, PBMs, managed care firms, and employers. In addition to taxpayers, seniors and pharmacies, losers may include the President and his allies on Part D.