At Bob Laszewski’s site today, where he’s hosting this fortnight edition of Health Wonk Review.
Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda
Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda
At Bob Laszewski’s site today, where he’s hosting this fortnight edition of Health Wonk Review.
Yesterday’s revelation of a compromise on health reform by two key Senators – a Republican and a Democrat – was the first public statement of the long-simmering plan to significantly change physician reimbursement.
It wasn’t much to start – a call to increase reimbursement for primary care services by 5% along with bumps in payments to rural physicians. But is also noted a decrease in reimbursement for other specialists. And that’s where things are going to get very contentious.
The proposal by Senators Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) indicates there’s been significant progress between the two parties on health reform; according to the LATimes, “the senior members of the Senate Finance Committee have reached some bipartisan agreement about how the federal government should pay providers through its Medicare program.”
This bipartisan agreement, coupled with the earlier announcement of Sen Arlen Specter’s move to the Democratic party and the decision by Democrats to subject health reform to the reconciliation process (where it can pass the Senate with a simple majority) may well kick health reform into high gear. Politically, more Republicans may be realizing that a continued policy of pure obstruction will not help turn around the fortunes of the party.
With health reform a highly visible issue, at least some members of the minority party may have decided to try to steer the bus instead of continuing to lie down in front of it. Politico reported late yesterday that Rahm Emanuel met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell yesterday to discuss health reform – a meeting that may well indicate the GOP leader is willing to engage.
I’d expect there is some serious horse-trading going on in the back offices, and one of the chips is very likely the public plan option. If the Rs can keep that off the table in return for their acceptance of other health reform provisions, we just may see reform this year. As I’ve noted repeatedly, the protests over the public option are generally overblown. Be that as it may, killing the public option would enable Rs to claim a significant victory and retain some political capital amongst their core supporters.
What does this mean for you?
Watch what key Democrats say about the public option; a cooling of enthusiasm may well indicate a compromise is in the offing and reform may actually happen.
“it’s all a fee-based business, so actually the workers’ comp business, the more bills there are, the more claims there are, the better that we do.” [emphasis added]
Allen Wise, CEO, Coventry Healthcare, Q1 2009 earnings call
That was the chairman’s response to an analyst question about workers’ comp claim frequency declines – and he’s right. Coventry’s networks, bill review, case management, and other services deliver more revenue and profit when there are more injuries generating more bills.
As plain as the nose on your face, a crystal clear explanation of how Coventry profits when workers comp medical costs go up. By the company’s chair, no less.
(To quote my wonderful bride, Coventry’s incentives are “diabolically opposite” those of its clients.)
In his opening comments, Wise noted “I do feel confident that we’ll be able to improve our operating margins in the short term [emphasis added] and when the employment market returns that we will be able to demonstrate revenue growth. In summary, it’s a good business and we’re absolutely committed to it. The chairman went on to talk about the business bouncing back with the economy. Wise expects a 300 basis point ‘margin opportunity’ in comp over the next 24 months.
He didn’t say where that increased margin was coming from, but the company’s recent layoffs and price increases give a pretty good indication of what we can expect.
Wise also expressed confidence in the new management team, led by David Young. It is quite clear that the work comp unit will operate almost autonomously, with great flexibility and control over their own destiny.
No one from corporate is going to be watching over their shoulders.
According to Wise, “we have given the management group the resources of a large company in terms of IT and some of our favorable network locations but made them more autonomous, and their earnings and their bonus depends on EBITDA targets, and so, I think now that they have better control of their expenses or rather more accountable for their expenses, they’re making better business judgments…”
Can it be sold?
At RIMS I had several conversations with individuals opining that Coventry would sell off the work comp division. I think not. While it would be easy to just quote Wise’s statement of commitment, we all know how corporate-speak works – it could very well be a smokescreen to cover a transaction in the works.
But I doubt it, for a simple reason – what’s to sell?
Bill review – well, Coventry’s application is OK (see upcoming results of bill review survey for more details) but the market is limited, competitors including Medata and Mitchell are doing quite well, Coventry’s BR has always been a low margin business, they recently laid off key support staff and EDS will not support the application after this September.
Case management – seriously? who would buy a CM business these days? Perhaps for 3x ebitda, but perhaps not. This business, on the downslope for years, is cratering.
Medicare Set-Asides – what’s left to sell? What was a $30 million business is now projected to do $5 million in 2009. That, and the overhanging liability of First Health’s ill-conceived ‘guarantee’ program is causing major problems with several customers, as the customers have started to ask for payment on the basis of those ‘guarantees’. Much as they’d like to stick that in a box at the bottom of a very long mine shaft, it’s not going away.
Networks – ah, the crown jewel. Except hospital discounts are fading, the Aetna (which provides the actual network in sixteen or so states) is seeking to renegotiate their contract, and Wise himself has alluded to his concern about using goup health to get workers comp discounts (which has been causing problems since 2003). Even if they could leverage the group business’ buying power, how could they then turn around and sell the ‘workers comp network’ to another entity? Answer – they couldn’t.
FirstScript PBM – the network is accessed thru a group PBM (Caremark), pricing is low, and there isn’t much in the way of value-add. Still, the sales force under Matt Padden is pretty good, and Padden is well respected throughout the industry. On balance, one of the stronger offerings Coventry work comp has.
This is not to say Wise is not actually enthusiastic about comp – even if it is only 6% of Coventry’s total revenues. But he has way bigger fish to fry, and he’s leaving this to run on its own.
Let’s recap.
We have the dominant player in the work comp managed care business being told to increase profitability. We have an express acknowledgment by the CEO that the more bills their workers comp clients have, the better for Coventry. We have several months’ experience with the ‘kinder, gentler’ Coventry.
What does this mean for you?
Price increases, service decreases, higher medical costs.
post script – Once again I reached out to Coventry to seek their views. And once again – no response.
This is a big day for mid-tier healthplan Coventry. After a year of turmoil and ups and (mostly) downs, CVTY has been under the leadership of returning CEO Allen Wise for a full quarter. Today Coventry announced Q1 results, which were projected to include earning of 24 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet Research. The company surprised analysts when it reported earnings of 30 cents and projected 2009 revenues just under $14 billion.
The quick take – medical losses are coming under control through higher pricing, commercial membership is down, governmental plan membership is up, Coventry will exit the Medicare PFFS business, they are going to retain the workers comp business and Coventry is not for sale.
Details
While the results look pretty poor in comparison to Q1 2008, recall those results were wrong, as the company had yet to figure out its medical loss ratio problems were quite severe. On balance, this quarter looks reasonably solid.
The primary driver of improved results appears to be the renewed focus on the company’s medical loss ratio, which had slipped badly during the previous two years.
Here are some of the highlights.
– Net earnings were down about 65% due to higher expenses.
– Health plan commercial group risk MLR (medical loss ratio) was 80.9% in the quarter, down 230 basis points from the prior quarter. This is a big win as it appears the turnaround in healthplan performance has come earlier than expected.
– Commercial membership decreased 2.5% to 2.8 million. This is not good, as this is the profitable core of the company, Coventry’s bread and butter. The good news for the company was they increased pricing across most plans – this increase drove the improvement in MLR although it undoubtedly contributed to the drop in top line.
Coventry is selling more employer plans, but ingroup membership is down – people just can’t afford to pay their share of the premiums, even when subsidized by their employers. This is one of those canary-in-the-mine issues that has broad implications, far beyond this one mid-tier healthplan.
– Medicare Advantage membership was up 114,000 during the quarter; the MA MLR was 90.5% in the quarter, down 40 basis points from the prior quarter.
– Medicare private fee for service (PFFS) is not doing well, and it looks like Coventry will exit this business. This business grew dramatically over the quarter, with membership up some 75,000 to 318,000, driving revenues of Wise noted Coventry’s board will have a (non scheduled) meeting April 30 which happens to be the day before Coventry has to decide whether it will stay in this business.
Don’t bet on it. If Coventry does exit the Medicare PFFS business, top line impact will be significant – likely more than a couple billion dollars.
– Medicare Part D membership of 1,501,000 grew by 570,000. Notably, Humana dumped 180,000 Part D members: these were the folks who cost the company about a buck a share in earnings in 2008 due to higher than expected costs. One analyst thinks Coventry picked up some of the members dumped by Humana…
Wise expressed confidence in the results, saying he’s “reasonably comfortable” with Q1 results. CFO Shawn Guertin made a point of noting that most growth in Part D was not in their high-tier products and he feels ‘comfortable’ as well.
– Workers comp – Wise stated he is committed to maintaining and eventually growing the workers comp segment as it is profitable and returns good margins. He’s “absolutely committed to this business.” Guertin reiterated the company’s positive view of comp, saying results are very strong (or words to that effect). (work comp accounts for about 6% of Coventry’s revenue, with much of that from their PBM FirstScript).
More on this later.
Wise closed his opening comments by saying “the company is not for sale”. I’d note that few companies that are for sale advertise that fact.
What wasn’t covered
Once again, there was almost no discussion of core medical cost drivers – nothing beyond a couple lines from Wise about Coventry’s desire to invest in chronic care management for their Medicare members and two softball questions from analysts about cost drivers. (One was answered with the statement that facility unit costs and outpatient facility utilization appear to continue to be the problem. The second question referred to the company’s strategy regarding addressing unit costs by negotiating hospital contracts coming up for renewal and the potential impact of MS DRGs etc. Guertin’s answer was it is tough, hand to hand combat, about a fifth to a third of their hospital contracts come up for renewal this year… There was no declarative statement and certainly nothing substantive to say we’re focusing tightly on these areas or types of service. He did not respond to the MS DRG topic, and there was no follow up from the analyst.)
In what other industry would analysts not ask deep, penetrating questions about the underlying costs the company’s main product? Costs that are going up in the high single digits each year? Costs that are causing enrollment declines in the company’s core business? Costs that hammered the company last year, that drove the stock down by almost 90%? Costs that were acknowledged to be poorly understood in several of the calls last year?
Medical costs account for $11 billion – about 80% – of the company’s $14 billion top line – and there were two superficial questions?
Wow.
In one of those all-but-unnoticed moves that could have a dramatic effect on workers comp, the FDA has moved to ban a number of currently-dispensed pain medications, medications that are currently prescribed to many work comp claimants.
These aren’t the wildly expensive, oft-abused drugs like Actiq and Fentora, rather the list includes many old stand-bys, drugs that have long been used to manage chronic and acute pain. The list covers drugs “that include high concentrate morphine sulfate oral solutions and immediate release tablets containing morphine sulfate, hydromorphone or oxycodone.” The FDA’s concern appears to be that these drugs were in use before the current approval process became mandatory. The “Agency has serious concerns that drugs marketed without required FDA approval may not meet modern standards for safety, effectiveness, quality, and labeling.”
George Rontiris, PharmD and partner at Titan Pharmacy in New York gave me the heads’ up. George has been a strong advocate for injured workers for years; he’s one of the good guys. Here’s his take:
“There will be some manufacturers still able to make some of these drugs. The majority will be gone. This has already created huge shortages. A bottle of Oxycodone 30 mg that we used to be able to buy for $5.14 per bottle of 100 is now up to $ 39.50.
The so called increase in price due to a lack of supply is just the tip of the problem. Many of the people who have been handling their pain with these cheap generics, now cannot find them anywhere. The alternative that their doctors have come up with is switching them to other forms of medication, and unfortunately the ones that they go for are very expensive.
Our dispensing of Oxycontin (both brand and generic) has exploded. Worse yet is the explosion of Opana and Opana Er that we have been dispensing. I have even had the Endo Lab Opana Reps come into the the pharmacy 3 times telling me that they have been detailing all the MD’s about the “availability” of Opana since there is a National shortage of Roxicodone and other generic narcotics. And of course, the MD’s are eating it up.
Our wholesaler’s bill for the past two months has been up over 15% of what it usually is, and when we went over our ordering, it was clearly because of all the Opana Er, Oxycontin and Avinza that we have been forced to order.
We have been also getting hit with non-control generic problems. For example, Nitoglycerin tablets (put under tongue when a heart attack is happening) were $ 2.08 per 100, and are now $ 13.45. Toprol Xl 50mg generic which used to cost us $ 28.99 is now $84.95 . These are huge difference.”
What does this mean for you?
Mr Rontiris’ experience bodes ill for the work comp industry. The loss of these drugs will certainly drive up costs, may lead to adverse events as patients try other medications to replace their now-banned drugs, and may make it harder for patients to get medications.
As the biennial Texas legislative session nears its end, it looks like the legislature may pass a bill that would have a dramatic effect on workers comp PPO networks.
According to WorkCompCentral (subscription required):
“HB 223 would regulate “discount brokers” that are engaged in (for money or other consideration) “disclosing or transferring a contracted discounted fee of physician or health care provider.”
A broker could not transfer a physician’s or health care provider’s contracted discounted fee or any other contractual
obligation unless the transfer is authorized by a contractual agreement that complies with the provisions of the bill.
Those provisions include notifying each physician and provider of “the identity of the payers and discount brokers authorized to access a contracted discounted fee of the physician or provider.”
The notice must be provided at least every 45 days through “electronic mail, after provision by the affected physician or health care provider of a current electronic mail address” and posting of a list on a secure Internet website.”
Now that’s a huge change, one that would effectively stop much of the rental network business cold. The dirty secret of the work comp PPO business (well, one of the dirty secrets) is that networks don’t have direct contracts with providers in all states – every ‘national’ PPO uses another network’s contracts in at least a few jurisdictions.
Docs sign contracts in return for direction – they are trading a discount for the promise of more volume. Yet few networks actually drive any significant volume to the vast majority of their contracted physicians.
We’ve been seeing a rapid rise in the volume of litigation from providers contesting reduced reimbursement due to PPO contracts, with three payer clients reporting a significant upsurge in the last twelve months.
What does this mean for yuo?
Find a better, and more sustainable, way to reduce medical expense. The days of cutting costs by slashing provider reimbursement on the basis of some flimsy network contract are rapidly ending.
As I’ve been reporting for several months, Congressional Democrats and the President are working hard to increase reimbursement for cognitive services by up to 10%.
This would go a long way towards fixing what is perceived to be a core problem with US health care – overly generous compensation for procedures (surgery, imaging, etc) leads to over-utilization of those procedures, while under-reimbursement for office visits and other ‘primary care’ services results in a shortage of physicians willing to do primary care.
This morning’s New York Times features a headline story about the conflict in Washington, noting that the Obama Administration is very concerned about the shortage of primary care docs. The solution being discussed in DC is to get more applications into med schools.
Wrong answer.
The ‘right’ answer is staring us in the face – there are too many specialists, physicians who have already graduated from medical school and have lots of experience and training. It would be far easier, faster, and cheaper to re-train these physicians to take on more primary care responsibilities, albeit primary care with an orientation towards their specialty. Would this be difficult, and expensive, and meet with strong resistance from those docs?
Absolutely. But on balance it would be much easier, and faster, than waiting at least eight years for the supply of primary care docs to begin to meet anticipated demand.
Compensating docs more for primary care would potentially have another effect; it might reduce the volume of procedures performed, as specialists would also benefit from the higher compensation for evaluation and management services. I wouldn’t bet too much on this, as docs – like the rest of us – won’t change dramatically overnight. That said, increasing compensation for primary care service codes (the 99xxx CPTs) would help take a bit of the sting out of reduced reimbursement for surgery etc.
What does this mean for you?
A lot.
Most network contracts are based on Medicare’s RBRVS; if the Feds change, your provider compensation will too. Think about the potential impact, and think deeply. The trickle-down will likely cause specialists to seek higher network reimbursement for two reasons – first the base from which their reimbursement (RBRVS) has declined, and second, they’ll want to make up their lost revenue from Medicare by increasing reimbursement from private payers.
Oh, and you can bet utilization is going to see a big jump, so get your data mining and evidence-based utilization review processes tuned up.
Workers comp PBM and medical services company PMSI released its annual Drug Trends Report at RIMS earlier this week. I noted a couple highlights in an earlier post; you can download a copy here.
One of the more notable findings is the increase in the rate of inflation in drug costs, this coming after several years of decreasing inflation rates. A key contributor was per-script price increases which amounted to 6.1% in 2008.
There’s lots of good information in the Report, and you can’t beat the price.
My firm will be conducting the Sixth Annual Survey of Prescription Drug Management in Workers Comp next month; this survey focuses on tools and techniques employed to manage costs as well as payer executives’ views on cost drivers and PBMs.
For the fourth consecutive year the Survey is sponsored by Cypress Care.
Send an email to infoAThealthstrategyassocDOTcom if you’d like a copy of the report.
With yesterday’s announcement that AIG is pressing forward with the creation of AIU Holdings, the move to separate the ongoing insurance operations from the rest of the AIG businesses is well on the way.
As I noted over a month ago, the AIU Holdings entity will likely be offered in an IPO, or at least a substantial minority share will be sold to the public. This just makes sense, as it allows AIG to sell a very big, profitable, solid operating unit for the best possible price.
Last year the component pieces of AIUH accounted for about $38 billion in total revenue, provided a broad range of property and casualty insurance, and operated in most countries around the world.
The separation of AIUH from related companies (e.g. International Lease Finance, United Guarantee) is taking a bit longer than the Feds or AIG board would like, but the time is needed to extricate AIU Holdings from its closely related sister companies, thereby reducing the concern about potential future liabilities thereby making the new entity more attractive to potential entities. While ILFC is a potentially very attractive asset and will likely sell for close to $10 billion, United Guaranty is a mortgage insurer...and has to be split off to allay fears among potential buyers about the real estate industry.
The announcement followed last week’s $1.9 billion sale of AIG’s auto insurance business to Farmers, a subsidiary of Zurich Insurance. The disposition of other assets is not moving very quickly – in general their value is decreasing due to decline in revenues as policyholders move to what they perceive to be more stable, safer insurance companies. Notably, AIG failed to sell some of its overseas insurance operations earlier this year, and has now decided to hold onto the units and consolidate them with other businesses.
The decision made by the Board and the Federal government back in early March to halt the firesale has proven (so far) to be the right one. This has allowed the businesses to be separated out, thereby reducing concerns on the part of buyers and potentially increasing proceeds from the sale.
That said, what will drive value will be the economy; if it grows, more insurance will be sold and investment returns will increase. If it continues to fall, so will the value of AIG’s component pieces.
In my post earlier this week that mentioned developments with Coventry’s bill review services, I incorrectly stated:
Reports are that Coventry will ‘own’ the bill review application source code and related assets as of October 1 2009; what they will do then appears to be up in the air.
Well, that’s not exactly incorrect, as Coventry will own the application after that date, but sources indicate they already own it.
The significance of the 10/1/2009 date is that It marks the day that EDS will no longer support the application. EDS has provided IT support for BR 4.0 and the previous iterations of the program for years; as of October 1 they no longer will.
Which leads rather quickly to the next question – who will?
My assumption is Coventry. However, as I’m all too familiar with what happens when you make assumptions, I’ve reached out to Coventry and asked them what their plans are.
I’m not sanguine about the chances of a response.