Apr
18

Private Equity healthcare investment in 2022

Private Equity healthcare investment declined sharply last year as the average deal’s value and the number of transactions both fell off.

Firms invested over $45 billion in 167 US healthcare deals last year – a pretty massive decrease from 2021’s 216 deals for $107.5 billion.

While 2022 started off quite strong, deal volume halved in the second half of 2022 due to interest rate hikes, tighter credit, economic concerns and Putin’s War.

Those are the headlines from Bain & Company’s Global Healthcare Private Equity and M&A report 2023 (download for free here.)

note – I have worked with Bain entities in the past, respect the firm and the Bain people I’ve worked with. I am not currently working with Bain.

key highlights…

  • Provider sector deals accounted for about half of all transactions and dollars invested…but slowed dramatically to 7 transactions in Q4 2022
  • IPOs pretty much disappeared in 2022 (initial public offerings, when a private company goes public)
  • Value-based care and primary care were a big focus of strategic buyers…
    • Optum bought several provider groups
    • Amazon acquired One Medical
    • Humana and Welsh Carson did a joint venture, investing in a value-based primary care company.

There’s a lot on value-based care…although there’s precious little evidence that it is a panacea, investors are still betting billions …From the report:

For more than a decade, value-based care (VBC) has been positioned as healthcare’s “next big thing.” And while progress has been uneven 

The number of accountable care organizations (ACOs) plateaued at around 1,000 in recent years, while 15 of the 53 entities participating in CMS’s direct contracting program in 2021 experienced net savings losses. 

Value-based care stakeholders are doubling down on their commitment as healthcare spending outpaces GDP growth and CMS leans further into VBC models. 

What does this mean for you?

Expect PE investors to remain quite cautious until interest rates stabilize, the debt ceiling is raised (or much, much better – eliminated) and inflation trends level out.

Warning – if House Republicans don’t raise or eliminate the debt ceiling there will be hell to pay. 

Register for Bain’s webinar on the report here.


Apr
1

Medicaid for All – Biden goes big.

Medicaid for All is back on the table.  In a speech in Rolling Fork MS, President Biden revealed that his administration is working in concert with Progressive Democrats – and Sen. Mitt Romney (R UT) – on legislation that would allow any citizen to enroll in Medicaid.

Citing Mississippi as an example of major problems with healthcare access, widespread un-insurance particularly in southern states, rising healthcare inflation, and massive bad debt from medical bills, Biden sketched a (very thin) outline of Medicaid for All. (no details on cost, timing, or much else, a lot of soundbites about babies, insulin, nursing homes and affordability)

While this may seem like a bolt out of the blue, it is pretty clear Biden’s administration has been working this since before he took up residence in the White House. The latest was a major streamlining of the enrollment process back in August of 2022 intended to make it much easier for families to sign up for Medicaid and eliminate caps on child care coverage.

Biden has been teasing a major announcement on healthcare for a couple weeks, most recently during an event lauding the ACA’s birth…

from the Washington Examiner:

Public support for major changes to healthcare has grown alongside support for the ACA. Seeking to highlight Dems’ perceived strength in healthcare and Social Security well ahead of the 2024 elections, White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson noted:

note this is NOT Medicare for All (M4A), a concept that was widely circulated back when  the ACA was in development. Biden briefly alluded to M4A in his remarks, noting his team ruled it out as Medicare “is not comprehensive, is confusing to many, and is mostly focused on older Americans…it wouldn’t work for young families…”

Reports indicate VP Kamala Harris has been pushing this since Biden named her his VP. Sen. Brian Schatz (D HI) an early advocate of Medicaid for All, has been meeting regularly with Biden staff, other elected officials, and HHS leaderships in an effort to build support. Schatz is close with Utah Sen Mitt Romney; recall Romney led the charge to revamp Massachusetts’ healthcare system and establish “RomneyCare” over a decade ago.

We can count on a full-throated opposition from almost all Republicans, although Romney’s reported involvement will give Biden much-needed “bipartisan” cover. I would not be surprised if Louisiana’s Sen. Cassidy also signs on; he’s been a behind-the-scenes advocate for a major revamp of healthcare for years. Long an advocate for state control of healthcare, Medicaid fits his policy views far better than Medicare.

in my view, there are a host of reasons Medicaid For All makes a lot more sense than Medicare for All; here’s what I wrote about this back in 2018…

  1. Medicaid for All will spread the cost of universal coverage across states, reducing federal financing requirements.
    Medicaid is a state AND federal program; States provide a lot of the funding for Medicaid; on average the Feds contribute 63% and states 37%. This is critical, as Congress will want to spread the cost of a Single Payer solution and there’s no better way to do this than require states to pony up big dollars [State contributions vary based on a state’s average personal income relative to the national average; states with lower average personal incomes get more federal dollars.]
  2. Medicaid is already built to cover everyone.
    Medicare covers people of all ages, Medicare is very much elder-care focused.
    Adapting Medicare to handle everyone from newborns to elderly, maternity care to pediatrics will be difficult, time-consuming, and expensive. Medicaid does all this and more – today.
  3. Generally, Medicaid is less expensive than other “systems”.
    This is due to much lower provider payment and significantly lower administrative costs. Yes, this means providers are going to be paid less.
  4. Medicaid member satisfaction is pretty good; access to care is not much of an issue.
  5. Medicaid-based Exchange programs are much more successful in the Exchanges than commercially-based plans.
    The Centenes et al [Medicaid-based plans] understand the demographics of the uninsured, have lower medical costs, and already have provider networks, customer relations operations, workflows and processes set up and operational. At the end of the day, lower cost wins – and their costs are lower.
  6. Medicaid is a simple, fully-integrated healthplan.
    Medicare’s alphabet-soup of Parts A B C and D is confusing and convoluted, with different payers often covering the same individual. This increases administrative costs, member hassles, and decreases quality of care (co-ordinating pharmacy and medical care between different payers is problematic at best.
  7. Managed Medicaid plans are working.
    These plans currently exist in most states, and many have been able to deliver excellent care at lower costs through innovation and very tight focus on outcomes. One example is using paramedics to deliver care. [disclosure – I sit on the board of Commonwealth Care Alliance, a Massachusetts healthplan that serves dual-eligible members]

What does this mean for you?

 


Mar
28

Medicaid, workers’ comp claim severity, and healthcare deserts

Medicaid is the second largest payer in the US, with spending approaching three-quarters of a trillion dollars this year.

In 2023, workers’ comp medical spend will be around $32 billion – just over 4% of Medicaid.

Medicaid is a major payer for many facilities in poor and rural areas, a financial lifeline that is thin indeed.

Ten states have yet to expand Medicaid, an ethically- and financially-unconscionable failure that has major repercussions for workers’ comp, poverty, child health and healthcare access (two – SD and NC – are in the expansion  process).

Access to care

Most rural areas in those 11 states were already hospital deserts; that will get a lot worse as over a third of rural hospitals are in those eleven states.

Average operating margins, razor thin before COVID, recovered somewhat during the pandemic but will turn negative as the pending Medicaid disenrollment takes effect.

More hospitals and their emergency and trauma units will close. Today in 40% of US counties most patients are more than an hour away from a trauma center…as more rural hospitals close even more trauma patients will be further away from hospitals.

What’s known as the “golden hour” is the first 60 minutes after an injury, when healthcare can save lives, limbs, and livelihoods.

What does this mean for you?

Claim severity will increase in those ten states. 

note – reminder, Saturday is April 1…beware.


Feb
13

After 10 days away from the keyboard – family vacation in Mexico and gravel bike race in California – it’s back at it.

shockingly the world kept turning while I was unplugged…

The estimable Charles Gaba has just updated his analysis of US healthcare coverage by payer. Charles’ work is the best I’ve encountered to date…he includes everything from Medicare and Medicaid to Exchange programs to Healthcare Sharing ministries (between 865,000 and 1.5 million, Indian Health Services (2.6 million)…

Here’s the all-in-one view…

Despite all  those gazillions of people with insurance, many hospitals are having real/awful/terrible financial problems. Hospitals’ average margin – according to Kaufman Hall – was -3.4% for the first 11 months of 2022.

That said, things steadily improved during the year…

In the tiny world that is workers’ comp, NCCI released its review of medical inflation…among non-hospital providers (docs, PTs, etc).

Thanks to the good work of Raji Chadarevian and David Colon, we know medical inflation among these providers was…minimal.

As in 1.5% per year over the last decade.

Final note. Facility costs are increasing.

Most payers are doing a really crappy job addressing this; their bill review partners/operations are woefully ill-equipped to ensure your dollars aren’t being Hoovered up by healthcare systems and hospitals.

And yes “most payers”includes you.

To date those increases have been matched by a $2 billion decline in drug spending – which, by the way, has also reduced claim durations (way lower opioid usage = way more claim resolutions).

Physician costs are pretty much flat, drug costs are way down, and facility costs are headed up…net is you need to PLEASE stop catastrophizing about “severity increases” and other nonsense.

If I read one more survey or interview or discussion of workers’ comp execs afraid of “rate inadequacy” or medical inflation or some other incredibly uninformed and wrong-headed and ignorant fear mongering I’m going to call them out publicly.

Just. Stop.

 


Jan
18

Why hospital costs are going up

Because they can.

Healthcare  – and more specifically facility-based healthcare – is a very mature industry and – with one huge exception – exhibits all the hallmarks of such…continued widespread consolidation, shuttering of marginal locations and elimination of unprofitable business lines and centralization of core services.

The “huge exception” is margin compression and price reduction. When any other sector matures, competition becomes fierce and prices come down.

Not so in healthcare, where pricing is opaque at best, and more often opportunistic if not downright predatory.

Over the last 70 years, the percentage of hospitals in health systems has grown by a factor of ten. Unusual indeed is the standalone facility.

That decades-long trend continued in the 2010s, although the pace slackened somewhat as there were fewer hospitals to acquire.

The net is this – most healthcare markets are pretty consolidated, which means one or two systems have pricing power.

Those systems use that power to force ever-higher reimbursement from commercial payers – and workers’ comp.

What does this mean for you?

Facility costs are going up.

 


Dec
20

Congress actually gets good stuff done!

I know – who woulda believed it?

Nothing like an end-of-the-year deadline and a looming change of power in the House of Representatives to motivate elected officials.

Here are the big items and what it means for you. Hint – work comp stuff is at the end…

  • a bipartisan bill to greatly increase our ability to prepare for and deal with future pandemics will become law this week.  The Prevent Pandemics Act was pushed by Democratic and Republican Senators…details at the link above.
    This means – the Feds will be much better prepared, activities will be better coordinated, and (hopefully) fewer of us will be affected by the next pandemic.
  • Improvements to Medicaid are great news for new moms and infants, (quoting WaPo) including:
    • allowing states to permanently extend postpartum Medicaid coverage for 12 months and
    • barring children from getting kicked off Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program for a continuous 12 months
      This means – kids will be healthier and off to a better start  – with big time implications for their future (and ours)
  • and good news for our fellow citizens in Puerto Rico...federal funding for Medicaid in the territory has been extended for 5 years, welcome news for an island that has been devastated by hurricanes and other weather-related disasters.

But all is not good news…the really dumb way we pay providers treating Medicare patients leads to unnecessary, counter-productive, and completely waste-of-time fist fights pretty much every year. Physicians face a 4.5% cut in Medicare reimbursement starting January 1st, and boy are they mad.

I doubt the entire 4.5% cut will go into effect…and the latest news indicates the cut will be 2% in 2023 with a smaller reduction in 2024.

What this means…

Work comp fee schedules tend to be driven or at least affected by Medicare’s fee schedule. States such as California will see an almost-immediate impact.


Dec
16

Friday catch-up

Lots happened this week while I was hunting, driving, and finishing up the annual survey of pharmacy management in work comp.

A quick update on pharmacy data points…

  • across the 30 respondents we have so far (a few more to come), drug spend was down one percent...however
  • there’s a ton of variation between respondents with some seeing big jumps and others steep drops in spend.
  • 91% of all scripts are generic…that’s a big increase from a few years back
  • pharmacy is viewed as being just a bit more important than other medical categories such as facilities, surgery, E&M.
  • and opioid spend is down again (YAY!!)

From HBR comes this trenchant observationIn Supplier Negotiations, Lying Is Contagious

“Lying once can be contagious. It can pave the way for lying again in other interactions or negotiations with people at other companies.”

The brief article is intended to provide guidance to buyers, but sellers would do well to internalize the researchers’ observations.

Health spending in the US is almost twice (as a percentage of GDP) as high as other developed countries’.

The graph is here if the pic above is hard to read.

Which means far fewer dollars to spend on wages, R&D, IT investment, and stock dividends – and much higher taxes to pay for civil servants’ health benefits.

Oh, and costs zoomed up in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID…due in large part to staffing shortages and concomitant labor costs.

What does this mean for you?

Next time someone starts comparing US healthcare to those with national systems, ask them if they have any idea how much more money we spend than those “socialists” do.


Nov
4

19 years ago

I wrote my first post on opioids and workers’ comp. Almost two decades later, the post – which was really an excerpt from a Workers’ Comp Insider blog post – is terrifyingly prescient.

Interesting item from Workers Comp Insider today:
There is an interesting convergence of issues concerning the pain killer, Oxycontin. Originally developed to combat cancer pain, Oxycontin has been aggressively marketed over the past three years by its manufacturer Purdue, to the point where the drug is now the pain-killer of preference for work related injuries. This drug is twice as powerful as morphine and, while not technically addicting, it can create withdrawal symptoms when a person stops taking it. According to a study by NCCI, Oxycontin is prescribed for pain in 69% of permanent partial disability cases. This same study also points out that 49% of these prescriptions go to people with back injuries. When you combine that with the next interesting piece of data – Oxycontin is almost always dispensed in 50 day supplies (100 tablets) — you have a potentially volatile mix.

Kudos to Tom Lynch and Julie Ferguson for their early warning.

Dr Steve Feinberg sent me a note re the CDC’s just-released update to opioid guidelines; there’s a lot to unpack here. A couple of key takeaways.

  • the guidelines were just that – guidelines. In far too many instances they were used to define hard limits, which was wildly inappropriate and completely inconsistent with CDC’s guidance.
  • this from Christopher Jones, acting head of the CDC’s National Center for Injury Prevention and Control and a co-author of the updated guidelines:
    • “The guideline recommendations are voluntary and meant to guide shared decision-making between a clinician and patient…It’s not meant to be implemented as absolute limits of policy or practice by clinicians, health systems, insurance companies, governmental entities.”

What does this mean for you?

Pay attention to early warning signs and don’t over-react.


Nov
3

Republicans planning to force Medicare cuts

House Republicans are planning to impose massive cuts to Medicare, raise Medicare’s eligibility age, and withhold payments to early retirees and retirees earning more than a certain limit.

News sources indicate the GOP will use the upcoming debt limit to try and force Medicare cuts, a reprise of earlier efforts supported by 175 House Republicans to slash Medicare spending. The effort is also gaining traction among Senate Republicans, with Senator Lindsey Graham planning to use the Republicans’ leverage in Congress to cut Social Security and Medicare.

Sen. Rick Scott’s 11 point plan goes a lot further; it would end Social Security and Medicare if Congress doesn’t take specific action to renew those programs every few years (see Scott responding to Fox News question at 1:09 of the video here.)

You may well recall that Scott was sued for Medicare fraud back when he ran Columbia/HCA. Columbia/HCA was ordered to pay the Feds $1.7 billion in fines and penalties.

What does this mean for you?

If you and/or your parents are on Medicare, this means a lot. 

 


Nov
2

Employee and customer trust = loyalty = success

with “success” defined as;

  • more revenue,
  • sticky customer relationships, and
  • more new business driven in large part by referrals from happy customers.

So, how do you measure “trust”?

Well,  you can use lengthy surveys, have long conversations, or track measures such as additional revenue, referrals, and added services.

All of which don’t tell you much about loyalty and are vulnerable to interpretation and confirmation bias.

Or you can take an objective, reproducible approach that can help you determine what really matters to customers, where you’re falling short and what you need to do going forward.

Why do this?

According to an analysis by the Economist, lost trust has financial consequences. Volkswagen, Wells Fargo, and six other corporations lost 30% of their value when they lost trust, at least in the short term.

From Harvard Business Review:

customers who trust a brand are 88% more likely to buy again, and 79% of employees who trust their employer are more motivated to work and less likely to leave…

Customers who give a brand high trust scores are three times more likely to stick with it through a mistake. Eighty-eight percent say they’re more likely to buy from that brand again, and 62% will buy almost exclusively from the brand.

The HBR piece outlines a pretty simple yet powerful way to assess trust and loyalty – which is built on a foundation of trust – and to identify specific factors that will affect customer and employee trust and loyalty.

Briefly, there are four components, each scored on a 7 point scale.

  • Humanity: The company/brand demonstrates empathy and kindness toward me and treats everyone fairly.
  • Transparency: The company/brand openly shares information, motives, and choices in straightforward and plain language.
  • Capability: The company/brand creates quality products, services, and/or experiences.
  • Reliability: The company/brand consistently and dependably delivers on its promises.

Different customers may give your organization the same net promoter score, but for different reasons. A brief survey can unpack key drivers and enable you to focus on specific areas that will improve employee and customer trust.

What does this mean for you?

Nothing is more important to business success than employee and customer trust.

The survey tool is here. Use it.