During yesterday’s webinar on COVID19’s impact on workers’ compensation, Mark Priven and I asked the 260+ attendees to share any data they have on COVID and comp.

[As soon as we have a link to a recording of the webinar, I’ll post it.]

William Rabb of WorkCompCentral provided a summary of the presentation [subscription required] this morning, and added helpful commentary from NCCI’s Jeff Eddinger. (NCCI just updated their guide to COVID presumption laws and regulations – get it here.)

Jeff Kadison of Practical Actuarial Solutions forwarded a detailed study put out by New York’s Insurance Rating Board. Lots of detail on costs, counts, and a discussion of potential impact.  A few key takeaways:

Using the CDC’s models, NYCIRB came up with the following estimates:

Brandon Miller, CEO of MWCIA was kind enough to send an excellent report prepared by Minnesota’s Department of Labor and Industry’s Brian Zaidman.

Unlike California and Florida, Minnesota’s claim counts didn’t drop much over the first half of 2020, although a third of MN claims are COVID19-related. The implication is fewer non-COVID19 claims have been filed in Minnesota than one would have expected.

Similar to the Golden State, Minnesota is a “presumption state” which may well be leading to more COVID claims filed. (California’s is by regulation, Minnesota by law.)

COVID-specific claims

Peter Strauss, Executive Director of the Montana Self Insurers’ Association also helped out, sending a presentation delivered 10 days ago by the state’s Department of Labor & Industry.

Unlike Minnesota, Montana’s data is remarkably consistent with what we’ve seen from Florida and California. Overall claim counts’ are down sharply, while COVID claims are relatively rare. Of course, Montana is built for social distancing; the state has a very low population density.

What does this mean for you?

Based on the very limited research we have, it certainly appears COVID19 cases aren’t going to be that expensive.

And please forward any credible research on the claim counts, claim costs, and COVID claims in the comment field below.

Here’s what’s puzzling me about agricultural workers, COVID infections, and workers’ comp.

• Few agricultural workers have filed WC claims for COVID.
• COVID infections are much more prevalent among Latinx than any other ethnic group.
• News reports indicate workers infected with COVID have spread the virus to family and co-workers
• Infection rates in the ag heartland in the Central Valley are much higher than in population-dense urban centers.

Here’s the data.

Latinx people are much more likely to contract COVID19 than any other ethnic group – more than twice as likely as White people.

Agriculture employs a lot of Latinx folks; average monthly employment was 422,000 in 2019 (downloadable files).

About 45% of ag workers nationally are Latinx. [if you have data specific to California please share]

So far this year, only 0.2% of California’s agricultural workers have filed a work comp claim for COVID19.

While news reports allege some employers are failing to implement adequate COVID19 safety protections, there’s another side to this, one that requires serious consideration.

This from a colleague (edited to preserve confidentiality):

I can attest to the Latino population being hit extra hard.  The reasons are fairly simple.

Number 1 reason:   The work ethic demonstrated by our workforce is hurting them and their co-workers.  The Mexican culture has long had excellent work ethic.  Their mantra is always, “I have to work.  I have to work.  I HAVE to work.”  They often do not safeguard their own health as a result.  Many when told they are positive respond with, “Well yeah.  I knew.  I haven’t felt good for a week.”  Which means that they’ve been spreading the virus daily.

Another factor for Ag workers is the common practice of transporting workers by vans or small buses.  Probably the worst thing they can do.

We found out most of them refused to comply with wearing a mask.  They’d have them on in front of the supervisor, but as soon as the vehicle left the yard, most all of them would take the masks off.

The third problem is the comorbidity factor of diabetes.  Their diets frequently lead to diabetes.  Every one of our fatalities had instant blood sugar levels of 700+.  Each of the deaths were investigated, and without exception, we found that there had been a diabetes dx years before but they had failed to comply.  Most of the diabetes dx’s were for men who refused to ignore or rethink the macho feelings of being able to drink beer and eat as many carbs as they want along with refusing to take meds.

Of course this does not apply to the entire Latinx population.  But it is sadly true of more than half and probably true of at least 75%.

What does this mean for you?

1. Don’t be surprised if we see a significant increase in workers’ comp claims from agricultural workers.
2. Cultural norms and biases MUST be considered, factored into, and made part of any and all prevention solutions.
3. There are NO simple answers, and all of us are part of the problem – and can be part of the solution.

REMINDER – sign up for Pandemic, Premiums, and Profit: Is it the Sky That’s Falling…or the Floor? a free webinar on COVID19’s impact on workers’ compensation here. Mark Priven of Bickmore Actuarial and I will be weighing in this Thursday at 1 pm Eastern, 10 am Pacific.

We know a LOT about how COVID and the COVID economy are affecting workers’ comp – and that’s what Mark Priven and I will dive into next week as we discuss “Pandemic, Premiums and Profits: Is It the Sky That’s Falling … or the Floor?” .

The free webinar (register here) is happening August 20 at 10 am Pacific, 1 pm Eastern. (attendance is limited, so sign up now to make sure you get a spot).

Mark is Vice President and Principal of Bickmore Actuarial, a highly regarded Actuary, and a very insightful analyst of all things workers’ comp. I’m honored to be on the virtual dais with Mark.

What triggered our decision to work together was a shared concern that there’s been way too much discussion about the potential, theoretical, possible, hypothetical costs of COVID itself – and (with one major exception) no discussion, analysis, projections, or discussion of the huge drop in workers’ comp claims – and the effects of that drop..

Frankly, prognostications about the damage COVID could do to profits just don’t stand up to scrutiny.  How an industry with a combined ratio of 85 and investment income of 11% will go from a 26% profit margin to a loss when COVID claims are not that common and all evidence indicates they aren’t that expensive is…puzzling.

One can – and some do – argue that we don’t have data on claim counts yet – and therefore it’s premature to discuss the impact.

But you can’t have it both ways – we know little about COVID, so making assumptions or statements about how the disease will affect workers’ comp is equally presumptuous.

Fact is we are fast approaching budget season for employers, insurers, TPAs, and service companies – and it is incumbent on those with data and expertise to share that information.

So, sign up, send us your questions, and Mark and I will do our best.

What does this mean for you?

Sign up here.

Thank you, CWCI. Due to it’s diligence and foresight, we now know:

• through June 30 there were 14,487 COVID claims reported to California’s DWC;
• this amounts to 6.3% of all confirmed COVID cases (data from JHU);
• the vast majority of COVID claims reported have been accepted;
• and perhaps the most important data point…

Total claims (COVID and non-COVID) dropped 28.8% from the first half of 2019 to the first half of 2020. (note this is corrected from my original 36.4%)

Kudos to the fine folk at CWCI; they have produced the first data-based report on all things COVID. It is quite user-friendly, highly credible, and interactive, allowing users to analyze California-specific on COVID and non-COVID claims.  The tool enables comparison by industry, body part, nature and cause of injury, class code and region for claims (both filed claims and accepted claims) with dates of injury from 1/1/2020 to 6/30/2020.

The tool also allows users to compare actual claim counts for the same time period in 2019 to current and projected counts for 2020.

Claim counts, dear readers, is WAAAAAY more important than the rather minor financial impact COVID claims have had on workers’ comp. As I’ve reported previously, work comp COVID claims to date are not expensive; despite the prognostications of others, it is unlikely indeed COVID’s costs will have any material impact on work comp financials.

What WILL have an impact – and a very positive one – is the massive drop in total claim counts we’ve seen so far this year.

grey – 2019; green – 2020

Yeah, I know, this is California-specific, and only for half a year, and not fully developed, and all that stuff. I also know a 36% drop in total claim counts is the biggest thing to hit the workers’ comp industry in…forever. 

What does this mean to you?

Everything.