Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

May
12

Part D financials make no sense

A new study released by Part D advocacy group Medicare Today makes a compelling case for seniors’ enrollment in Part D. Authored by the Lewin Group (an excellent and unbiased health care reseach and analysis firm) the study makes a compelling case for seniors to enroll.
It makes an equally compelling case for adverse selection.
The only seniors who are signing up are those that can make money on the program. They make money because their premiums will be less than what they are spending on drugs today (or would be tomorrow). The Lewin report provides details on who benefits the most, what the average cost is ($37.43/month), and what benefits accrue to individuals with which conditions. It’s really well done.
Make no mistake; this is not insurance.
The Part D program is akin to an ATM card where you can withdraw any amount you want, as long as you pay a set minimum price. So, seniors, no dummies when it comes to managing money, can pretty quickly figure it out.
What’s missed in the discussion about Part D is the better off seniors are, the worse off taxpayers are. The ATM account has to be funded by someone, and that someone is the beleagured taxpayer.
This is nothing short of bizarre. The Feds are actively and aggressively encouraging enrollment in a program that will cost three-quarters of a trillion dollars over the next ten years, while cutting taxes that will be needed to pay for this program.
What does this mean for you?
Really high taxes in a few years. Followed by a taxpayer revolt. After which Congress will likely authorize the Feds to negotiate pricing with big pharma. Because the only other choice is to cut benefits, and seniors would never allow that.


May
12

AIG’s troubles continue

AIG’s stock price took a major hit yesterday due to a combination of missed earnings at a subsidiary company, payment of a $1.64 billon fine, and a drop in income from derivatives.
One of the factors driving the fine was AIG’s failure to pay workers compensation premium taxes in a number of jurisdictions in past years. This malfeasance, coupled with contingent commissions, fabricated insurance quotes and other anti-competitive behavior, is a growing stain on a once-proud company, a stain that doesn’t appear to be fading.


May
12

“Health Week” ends with a whimper

In baseball parlance, sometimes its the trades you don’t make that are the best ones. And it looks like the much-ballyhooed Health Week has ended with the trade deadline slated to pass with no blockbuster moves. As discouraging as that might be for those really interested in health care reform, at least Washington won’t screw it up any more.
That’s because once again, politicians are focusing on the fringes, ignoring the real cost drivers in health care, playing politics with statistics, and getting nowhere in the process. Health Week was supposed to be Congressional Republicans’ public policy win, a series of bills that would show the nation they were serious about health care reform. Were they serious?
To quote Hertz ads, “Not exactly.”
Let’s look at medical malpractice reform and the Association Health Plan Bill.

Continue reading “Health Week” ends with a whimper


May
11

Those brainy Dutch

In one of the more creative approaches to managing employee disability expense, an insurance company in Holland is issuing policies to employers who may suffer from significant increases in employee disability during the upcoming Soccer (sorry, Football) World Cup.
Dutch companies are required by law to pay employees out of work due to illness, and when tens of thousands of workers called in sick during the European Championships in 2004, a business opportunity was created. Insurance policies only pick up the payments after two weeks of absence, but the new policy, underwritted by SEZ, will cover absences the day of and the day after Dutch soccer matches.
Now if they could only set up a policy to cover Wisconsin employers for the first day of deer season…


May
10

What’s the fuss about the Part D “deadline”?

Listening to all the noise about the upcoming Part D enrollment deadline you’d think if you don’t sign up now you’ll never be able to. Nothing could be further from the truth.
For seniors who enroll in Part D after the “deadline”, their premiums will be increased by 1% for each month post-deadline. So, if the premium is $25.00 now, it will be $28.00 in a year. Now, I know many seniors live on fixed incomes, but the extra three bucks is not likely to break most individuals.
Especially when one considers the decision process seniors are going thru. They look at their drug bills today, see if they can save money by enrolling in Part D, and if they can, they do, and if they can’t, they don’t. And when they can save money by enrolling, they will.
Plan sellers could change their premiums between now and when a senior decides its finally worth it to enroll, but they can do that anyway.
So the deadline is not a “line in the sand”, but it sure makes for good press. It’s too bad that the mass media is not doing a better job of educating seniors about the soft deadline, instead choosing to create a false crisis.


May
8

There goes the middleman…

One of the more common complaints about insurance for small businesses, and actually for businesses of all sizes, but here we’re talking small ones, is the cost of administration. Premium billing, eligibility, enrollment, card and plan booklet issuance, underwriting and sales all add significant cost to the smaller employers’ already-pricey health insurance tab.
And that’s the main reason fewer and fewer small employers are offering health insurance, and fewer and fewer of their employees are signing up for insurance. As healthy employees decline coverage because they think they won’t need it, the sicker ones stick around, driving up claims costs and furthering the vicious circle that is today’s insurance cycle.
Costco has stepped into the fray, offering its “executive members” on the West Coast slightly cheaper health insurance through its stores. While the rates won’t make you think you’ve entered a time machine and been transported back to the sixties (or 2002, for that matter), the program does seem to be catching on. Over the last three years, membership in the big retailer’s plans has increased by 40% to 15,500 members in Nevada, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington.
Considering only 52% of small employers in Oregon offer health insurance to employees (and only 38% of those offer dependents and spouses coverage), Costco’s efforts won’t solve the health insurance coverage crisis any time soon. It does represent an interesting alternative, as the program reduces adminstrative expenses through automated underwriting, enrollment, and eligibility processes.
I tried out the enrollment process, and it is pretty simple and relatively quick. Rates don’t look too bad, if $541.00 per person for a company with an average age of 44 for single coverage aren’t “too bad”. (I can’t believe I just wrote that; we’re talking $6500 in annual premiums for single coverage!!)
What does this mean for you?
A smart business move by CostCo, which will be quite overmatched by macro factors making health insurance increasingly unaffordable for more and more small employers.
Fierce Healthcare gets the nod for tipping me off to the story.


May
8

Health Wonk Review May 4 (actually May 8) edition

My regular job took precedence over getting HWR out on time last week – apologies to those of you who have been sitting at your keyboards waiting eagerly for the latest edition to once again enter the bitstream.
This edition’s submissions range from the near-global to the very specific; they do share a common thread of (mostly) deep insight. So, enough from me and on to the musings of the health wonk-o-sphere…

Continue reading Health Wonk Review May 4 (actually May 8) edition


May
4

What P&C insurance industry exexs are thinking

The national conference of insurance agents’ annual legislative get together featured a panel comprised of CEOs and top execs at some of the nation’s leading property and casualty insurers.
The gentlemen discussed terrorism reinsurance and the need for a federal backstop, contingent commissions, state reinsuramce pools, and state v federal regulation. All interesting topics, but I’m most worried about something that doesn’t seem to have hit their radar.
Health care costs.
Yes, these guys are P&C insurers – they insure buildings, liability, the environment, cars, houses, businesses, boats and many other things. No, none of them are health plans per se. But they all are facing double-digit increases in the medical expense portion of their claims dollar, have been for years, and don’t seem to be paying attention.
In workers comp, over half of the claims dollar goes to medical care; for the largest insurers that’s about $1.5 billion annually. Auto insurers also pay a lot of medical expenses, as do medical malpractice carriers and liability insurers.
Yet the top execs don’t appear to give medical inflation and health care costs the same attention they give to TRIA, reinsurance pools, or state v. federal regulation.
Maybe that’s why their health care costs are going up so fast.


May
3

Insurers are waking up to bird flu’s potential

At last the insurance industry is starting to take notice of the potential financial impact of avian flu. And it’s not pretty.
“Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, simultaneously causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns at a time when insurers most need liquidity, and reduced staff and management productivity through the spreading of sickness among company personnel,” stated Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling.”
In contrast to the intellectual financial modeling of RMS, Risk and Insurance magazine published a timeline of a human-to-human transmissable flu scenario that is scarier than Freddie Krueger.
(I posted on the potential impact of avian flu on health and life insurers some weeks ago.)
For those readers really interested in the whole bird flu thing, there are two blogs that are really really good. Roy Poses et al at Health Care Renewal do an excellent job of sorting through the chaff to find the wheat. And the anonymous public health officials at Effect Measure are way in front of politicians on all aspects of this.


May
3

Presidente Quijote

The President’s health care “reform” package has been deader than Social Security reform for weeks, and yet Mr. Bush remains atop his charger, madly taking on windmills wherever he can find them. The latest tilting was spotted at the American Hospital Association meeting in Houston, wherein Mr. Bush once again called for more Health Spending Accounts, malpractice tort reform, increased investments in technology
Sen. Trent Lott (R MS) was seen yawning.
When Bush’s hometown paper and staunchest supporters both are less than positive about his so-called health care plan, it is truly dead.
Thank goodness.
Meanwhile, many states are taking control of their own destiny. One of the more intriguing efforts is West Virginia’s AccessWV program , which enables high-risk people to obtain insurance at somewhat affordable premiums, and by all accounts is working well. Although the premiums for AccessWV can be pretty high, the program is the best alternative for individuals and families unable to get coverage due to health conditions.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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