Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Jul
12

Consumer-directed rationing

For a real world view of consumer-directed health care, we can turn to the recent report by the Kaiser Family Foundation which indicates “Twenty-seven percent of women under age 65 delayed or went without needed medical care in the last year because they did not think they could afford it”. And these weren’t just the uninsured. In fact, “17% of women with private insurance delayed or went without care because of cost concerns.”
While I don’t mean to sound like a strident opponent of consumer education or deny the importance of involving individuals in the economic consequences of their health behaviors, it does strike me that when one out of six insured women delay care or skip it entirely due to cost we have a pretty good sense of the real effect of so-called “consumer-directed” health care – economic rationing.
It will be interesting to see if other studies of actual plans that are based on these ideas have different outcomes.


Jul
11

Steve Case’s Revolution Health Group

Steve Case, late of AOL-TimeWarner, has made a huge bet on consumer-driven health care with his investments in Revolution Health Group. Case and fellow investors including Colin Powell, Jim Barksdale (Netscape), Steve Wiggins (Oxford Health Plan), Franklin Raines (Fannie Mae) are planning to purchase at least seven (unnamed) companies to form the core of an entity that will (at least according to the USA Today article):
–provide consumers with access to data on physician and hospital cost and quality
lower health insurance costs by streamlining the purchasing process
–enable consumers to rapidly access their personal health care data at convenient locations
These guys are not fooling around – Case intends to invest $500 million of his own money in the venture, and the other partners’ pedigrees and personal fortunes will certainly make Revolution one of the larger new ventures in the health care business.
The question is, does the premise of the idea, consumer-directed health care, make sense?
Sort of, but not really.

To illustrate, here is a quote from Colin Powell from the article about shoppers looking for a TV;
“they can go on the Internet and “within a second and a half, get hundreds of choices of where to buy,” along with information about the TV, the seller and any additional charges. “Why should that not apply to health care?” he asks.”
Well, Mr. Secretary, buying a TV is not exactly the same as trying to find out what to do about a lump in your neck, a gradual loss of nighttime vision, or general sense of fatigue. When buying a TV, you already know what the solution is. The issue with health care is a big chunk of the effort and expense is associated with trying to answer the “what’s the problem” question.
The other significant problem w the whole “consumer-directed” idea is the nature of health care as an economic good. As Matthew Holt of “the Health Care Blog” has noted repeatedly, health care is not a typical economic good, it is not like guns or butter. People use different criteria when deciding what is worth spending when they or their loved ones are at risk. Case in point.
My daughter was admitted to a local emergency clinic with an adverse reaction to a medication. She was stabilized, appeared to be doing fine, was not in paid, fully alert and conversational. As the clinic neared closing time, the doc suggested that she be sent on to Yale for further observation before discharge, as there was some information that the reaction could lead to a problem with her breathing. She was breathing fine, talking, and appeared normal.
We are insured under a high-deductible MSA plan, so any charges would come out of our pocket. I thought about it for a few seconds, than agreed. I also agreed to have her brought over in an ambulance for the fifteen minute trip. I knew full well that the risk was minimal, the costs would be over $2000 for this “preventive” measure, and I would pay all that out of my own pocket. Was the very small risk worth the outrageously inflated cost?
You bet your life it was.

The net here is I do not believe health care’s cost problem can be addressed in any significant way by this drive to consumer-directed health care. In addition to the emotional buying decision process noted above, it is also instructive to remember that a significant portion of total health care dollars are spent on treatment in the last six months of life; and that a majority of the health care dollars go to treat individuals with serious chronic conditions who get almost all their care paid for.
While better educating individuals will undoubtedly help them solve their individual health issues, and perhaps cut a few cents off their bills, it will do nothing to reduce the national health care tab.


Jul
11

Medical malpractice – what crisis?

While medical malpractice premiums were climbing dramatically from 2000 to 2004, claims did not increase at all. The finding from a study by the Center for Justice and Democracy reported in the New York Times, examined the premium and claim histories of the 15 largest med mal carriers and found that while premiums escalated 120%, claims were flat while the insurers’ incurred loss ratios (ratio of claims to premiums collected) improved by almost 25% to 51.4%.
What gives? Does this mean the “med mal crisis” of a few months ago was a myth? Depends on who you listen to. The Times article notes:
“According to Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), the results of the study “have the potential to alter the debate fundamentally from seeming to cast the rapacious personal injury lawyers as the complete culprits and the insurers as innocent bystanders with doctors as victims to the insurers as equally responsible, if not more so.” He does like to turn a phrase…
A


Jul
7

United acquiring Pacificare

It’s official, United HealthGroup intends to acquire Pacificare, increasing their membership to 25.7 million and tripling their Medicare insured business. This will also strengthen UHG’s west coast operations, long a sore spot for the company.
With the announcement came protests from consumer advocacy groups and others in California. These groups were instrumental in delaying the Anthem-Wellpoint deal, which passed after the companies agreed to allocate over $300 million to fund health care for low income citizens. Expect these groups to weigh in aggressively on this deal as well.
That said, UHG is more expert in acquisitions than the Anthem management was at the time of the Wellpoint deal, and are undoubtedly even smarter now. They will likely move things along more expeditiously than some would expect.
If the deal does go thru, UHG will be a close second to Anthem’s membership of 27.7 million. Ratings agency Fitch likes the UHG – Pacificare deal, noting
“Fitch views the transaction as strategically beneficial to UnitedHealth. Approximately 1.8 million, or 57% of Pacificare’s 3.2 million members are located in California, which is a state where UnitedHealth has historically lacked a competitive market share. Pacificare’s provider network within the State of California will be of significant value to UnitedHealth, which currently gains use of a provider network through a network access agreement with Blue Shield of California. In addition, UnitedHealth will be acquiring the largest player in the Medicare Advantage program.”
Frequent readers will note I have ong been talking about constraints on growth for these big managed care plans. There options are to acquire, grow organically, or diversify. While the price seems steep, it is better than cutting rates to gain market share or getting into another line of insurance about which they know little.
Expect there to be renewed interest in plans such as Cigna and Coventry.
This deal reduces UHG’s expenses (it will no longer have to “rent” BC CA’s networks), adds expertise in pharmacy management and Medicare, strengthens its networks nationally, and adds significant depth to their national accounts efforts. A tough competitor just got tougher.
What does this mean for you?
If you are a provider, there will be increasingn pressure in CA as the number of “suppliers” dwindles. Oligopolies have some benefits, but rarely do they spur innovation and intense competition the likes of which have driven the insurance industry over the last two decades.


Jul
6

New devices and reimbursement

An article in today’s New York Times discusses some of the issues inherent in the introduction of new medical devices and the quest for insurance reimbursement for same. Predictably, a spine surgeon accuses insurers of refusing to reimburse just to save money, insurers say they won’t pay until the device is proven more effective than alternatives, the manufacturer touts supportive studies and ignores less supportive data, and patients are completely confused.
The article does an excellent job of laying out the issues in an even-handed manner, and actually alludes to the significance of any new technology’s demonstrated ability to improve on the present “state of the art” in the reimbursement decision process. However, that is about as far as it goes. The article, and other commentary in California HealthLine, does not delve into other alternative treatments and their associated benefits and costs for conditions addressed by devices such as artificial disks, stents, and pacemakers.
It strikes me that device manufacturers certainly have this kind of information, as it is likely part of whatever studies they do. If that assumption is correct, the data is either not reported, was not used by the reporter, or was inconclusive. is no discussion about the potential for the device to replace other medical treatments (e.g. pain meds, therapy, etc.).
Reimbursement decisions are one of, if not the key success measures for new technology – and the way to get payers to cover these new devices is to show the impact on patient outcomes, functionality, and/or lifestyle improvements as well as the elimination of other medical treatment and the costs thereof.
I must be missing something here.
What does this mean for you?
Before approving a new technology for reimbursement, ask what the impact on patient outcomes is, in addition to what other services/devices/procedures it replaces.


Jul
5

Hard markets and Soft markets

Hard market, soft market, transitional market – all are terms that insurance industry veterans have used to characterize the various stages of the “insurance industry underwriting cycle”. Simply put, a hard market is when insurers are backing out of the market, insurance is expensive and getting more so, difficult to find, and likely limited when it can be obtained. Soft markets typically are marked by new entrants into the business, dropping prices, generous underwriting provisions, and aggressive discounting.
We are now in a soft market, especially in California. The next question is how did we get here and how long will it last.
Well, we got here because insurers raised rates for three years in a row beginning in 2001, thereby driving margins, and profits, up substantially. This newly profitable industry caught the attention of outside capital, which wanted to jump in on the action. Remember, those with lots of money to invest can put it into bonds (at very low interest rates) equities (with their only slightly better returns with much more risk), real estate (prices are high and speculation of a bubble rampant), or under a very large mattress.
So, among other insurance lines, workers comp looked especially good. And lots of capital jumped in, causing prices to drop. They are still declining.
The second part of the question is much harder to answer – but there are some indicators that predict it will not last nearly as long as the soft market of the late nineties. Most significant is the continued rapid increase in medical expenses. In workers comp, most medical expenses are paid out more than 12 months after the date of injury, and fully 1/3 of dollars are paid more than 36 months post injury. It is incredibly hard to accurately predict what medical inflation will do to a claim’s medical costs. And, all indications are that medical expenses in WC are rising faster than in the overall economy.
You can find an excellent review of past markets, market drivers, and other useful info at the American Association of State Compensation Insurance Funds. While the report is somewhat dated, the logic is not.
What does this mean for you?
Enjoy the soft market if you are a buyer, hope it ends soon if you are a seller, and whoever you are, remember that medical expense will drive the next hard market.


Jul
1

TRIA – the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act’s future

It appears increasingly unlikely that the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act will be renewed in its present form. A report filed by Treasury Sec. John Snow claims the robust economy is justification for its’ position that the Act is no longer needed, any renewal will stifle innovation and economic growth, and any renewal should factor in significant changes.
Referring to the potential for renewal of the Act, the report makes several recommendations, noting:
“Any extension of the program should recognize several key principles, including the temporary nature of the program, the rapid expansion of private market development (particularly for insurers and reinsurers to grow capacity), and the need to significantly reduce taxpayer exposure.”
Snow is recommending several specific changes, including:
“an extension only if it includes a significant increase to $500 million of the event size that triggers coverage, increases the dollar deductibles and percentage co-payments, and eliminates from the program certain lines of insurance, such as Commercial Auto, General Liability, and other smaller lines, that are far less subject to aggregation risks and should be left to the private market.
While Snow is correct that the Act was intended to be temporary, that was more because it was the first of its kind, we had no experience in this area, and far better to sunset a law than to let an inappropriate, ineffective, or bad law stay on the books automatically.
That said, there are benefits to the insurance industry if the Act dies. These include:
— No more onerous TRIA paperwork. Insurers/brokers are required to offer TRIA coverage to all policyholders (for most property/casualty and some accident/health lines) and prove that by getting signatures on documents from insureds. Most insureds opt out of coverage, meaning brokers are required to obtain, file, and maintain records without compensation.
— Outside major municipal areas, the vast majority of policyholders are rejecting terrorism coverage anyway due to higher costs.
Among the problems with any decision to non-renew TRIA are the regulatory requirements of certain states, the lack of a market for terrorism coverage, and the expense of private insurance.
New York state requires terrorism coverage, and is generally seen as the most likely target of an attack. Rock and a hard place, indeed.
Property and workers compensation insurers are particularly vulnerable, due to their high exposure, potential long-tail claims due to environmental fallout from any terror act, and in the case of WC, unlimited financial liability. Make no mistake, another significant terror attack could have a huge financial impact, one that the present insurance markets would not be able to withstand. Scenarios indicate an exposure into the tens of billions under certain situations for property and WC insurers if a dirty bomb event occurs in a major metro area.
What does this mean for you?
Depends on where you work and what your “exposure” is
. If you are in a major metro area or near a “high value” target, rates could climb drastically. If not, rates may still increase as insurers seek to mitigate risk by increasing their reserves ahead of a catastrophic event.
I’ll look into the potential impact on workers comp in a future posting.


Jun
30

Health Insurance Market conditions

Health care inflation rates are unsustainable. Costs are now growing four times faster than wages, driven primarily by hospital pricing and drug utilization. The average family of four with health insurance now pays over $12,000 in health care related costs each year; their health insurance premiums alone are just under $11,000. The cost of health insurance has forced employers and employees to forgo heath insurance, causing providers to shift costs to their insureds, thereby raising premiums by $922 per family.
I have been speaking with several knowledgeable individuals about these issues, trying to puzzle out when the crisis will reach a point where it will be addressed in a meaningful way. One of the conversations has been with Bob Laszewski, one of the nation’s leading experts on health care policy, the insurance markets, cost drivers, and pragmatic approaches to all. In a recent conversation with Bob about health care cost drivers, he pointed out that the “leveling off” of the health care inflation rate is now affecting pricing for health insurance. Indeed, early indications are that large employers and health plans buying reinsurance (insurance to cover unexpectedly high losses from their members) are keeping rate increases somewhat lower than overall trend rates.
How is this happening? Simple, really. The


Jun
29

Aetna’s HMS purchase

In yet another sign that the group health world is consolidating, Aetna has purchased PPOM, the dominant non-Blues network in Michigan, along with parent company HMS Health. PPOM looks to be the prize of the deal, as it adds a very strong network to Aetna’s offerings, while removing PPOM from the target list of Anthem, United, et al.
PPOM has 11% market share (defined as 11% of ALL state residents) in Michigan covered by its more than 27 thousand providers in the state. The network also has about 30,000 additional providers contracted in other Midwestern states.
For Aetna, with a paltry 262,000 insureds in Michigan out of its total population of 14 million, the acquisition opens up a significant market where it was previously virtually unable to compete. The acquisition also strengthens the Hartford, CT-based insurer in Colorado, as it includes the Sloans Lake and Mountain Medical networks.
The usual post-deal press releases indicate the new Aetna companies will continue to operate under their present names, staff will not be affected, etc. Perhaps true over the short term, but highly unlikely over the long. This industry is just too competitive to forgo any expense reduction opportunities.
Notably, two of Aetna’s competitors, Humana and MCare, also access PPOM. Although Aetna has said they will continue to provide access to the networks in Michigan to these other entities, one has to wonder how long that will last. Perhaps when Aetna’s membership grows enough to justify losing the other payers’ access fee revenue…
For work comp payers, PPOM is almost the only game in town in Michigan. With Aetna’s workers comp network still struggling to gain traction, one can see a strong push by management to non-renew other WC PPO contracts in an effort to grow the Aetna WC business.
What does this mean for you?
Hold on to your smaller PPO and HMO stock holdings. Someone is bound to come knocking soon. If you are a mid-tier player, sell while you still have some membership left.


Jun
28

The health care consumer/voter

On a plane yesterday I engaged in a brief conversation with a professional woman (accountant) working for ING Insurance about health care. An opinionated person, she was quick to tell me that employer-based health care was the only solution and that government based programs were bad due to waste and long waiting lines for treatment.
When I pointed out that Medicare was one of the highest-rated “health plans” in the nation, with administrative expenses significantly lower than any other plan, she stated that the only innovation would come from private insurers, and that the “Clinton plan would have been a disaster”. She then proceeded to complain about the one-year waiting lists for surgery in the UK, and about the problems w the pharma reimbursement system in the UK and it’s refusal to pay anything for “profits”.
Here is a very intelligent, educated, numbers-oriented person who likely votes and contributes and is active, who has some serious misconceptions about health care, and absolutely no appreciation for the trade-offs inherent in health care. As an accountant I would have expected her to argue the cost-benefit of procedures or financing mechanisms, but her arguments were more based on the Health Insurance Assn of America (a now defunct organization)’s famed “Harry and Louise” advertising campaign.
There was no time to engage, and it would not have been productive – her mind was made up. When asked about how to handle the uninsured, she said that doctors should be required to do pro bono work, and then proceeded to complain about socialised medicine. Leaving aside the thought that requiring workers to do something for no compensation via governmental fiat smacks of socialism or communism for that matter, I was amazed at the complete lack of thought given to these obviously firmly-held beliefs.
If this is the kind of voter we have, than we are indeed a long way from addressing the problems inherent in our health care system.
What does this mean for you?

Likely continued frustration…


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

SEARCH THIS SITE

A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

DISCLAIMER

© Joe Paduda 2024. We encourage links to any material on this page. Fair use excerpts of material written by Joe Paduda may be used with attribution to Joe Paduda, Managed Care Matters.

Note: Some material on this page may be excerpted from other sources. In such cases, copyright is retained by the respective authors of those sources.

ARCHIVES

Archives