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Feb
19

Greenspan on Medicare

Testifying before Congress, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan (free registration required) noted that while Social Security is indeed at risk, Congress must address “far larger shortfalls in Medicare”.
However, Greenspan also noted that we are not yet ready to take on the task. According to California Healthline;
“However, he emphasized that despite the larger problems in Medicare, lawmakers “probably ought not to address the medical issue quite yet, until we get much further down the road in the advance in information technology in the medical area,” which could help reduce costs. He added, “If we do it now or even next year, I’m fearful we would be restructuring an obsolete model and have to come back and undo it.”
Greenspan’s comments agree with a report just released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, which stated that Medicare will soon account for a “greater and rapidly growing share of the nation’s gross domestic product, sending Medicare into insolvency 23 years before Social Security,”.
EBRI says that Medicare’s nearly $28 trillion in unfunded liability is more than seven times Social Security’s $3.7 trillion.
The news here is individuals whose pronouncements are widely followed are finally talking about the real issue facing the economy – health care costs.
GM’s health care costs just went up by over a billion dollars. The uninsured population is increasing every year, and is now over 45 million. Medical trend rates in Property and Casualty insurance are the most significant driver of premium inflation. Health care costs for municipalities are now over $7000 per employee, leading to higher property and other taxes.
David Lazarus in the San Francisco Chronicle puts it this way. It is a “big mistake” that “Americans are talking about problems facing the Social Security system” while paying “little attention” to Medicare, San Francisco Chronicle columnist David Lazarus writes in his “Lazarus at Large” column.
Lazarus adds that most experts “believe that Medicare’s issues can’t be adequately addressed without overhauling the nation’s entire health care system.” (thanks to California HealthLine)
Perhaps, just perhaps, we are nearing the tipping point when real health care reform is possible.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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