Demographics v technology as health care cost drivers

Health Affairs has published an excellent review of the impact of aging on hospital demand, one that any hospital exec or regulator would be well served to study and keep near. The study, authored by the good folk at the Center for the Study of Health System Change, indicates that while the aging population will have a significant impact on inpatient utilization and cost, the impact may well be over-shadowed by changes in technology.
Here’s an example.
Demographic changes will increase the number of cardiovascular admissions by 1.5% annually over the next ten years, as older people are more likely to require treatment for heart attack and chest pain. While that’s a significant change, historically the adoption of angioplasty resulted in a much more dramatic shift in utilization patterns.
Over the ten years following 1993, the number of angioplasties jumped 7% per year. Meanwhile, the number of bypass operations grew only 0.2% per year (a figure lower than that predicted by demographic changes). Angioplasty, a relative new-comer to the cardiovascular treatment scene, appears to have been used instead of the more complicated, expensive, and risky open-heart bypass operation for a portion of the population, and, in addition, was used in many cases where bypass was not likely to be considered.
So, technology not only trumped demographics, it did so in convincing fashion.
What does this mean for you?
While demographic shifts look huge, they may well be overshadowed by changes in technology.