The Democrats’ capture of the House will bring new focus to health care, the uninsured, prescription drug pricing, and Medicare Advantage programs. Here’s the prognostications.
Prescription drug manufacturers will find themselves squarely in the cross hairs of to-be-Speaker Pelosi and her party. The Democrats have been consistent in their calls to enable the feds to negotiate with big pharma; while this may be one of the priorities for the new House, the reality is that Bush still holds the veto power, and the Senate split will likely preclude enactment of any legislation allowing governmental price negotiation for Medicare drugs.
That said, pharma finds itself in the awkward position of having bet on the wrong horse.
Net – no change…unless it is tied to other legislative measures as part of an omnibus bill.
Expect to see lots of discussion of, and perhaps legislation proposed to address the uninsurance issue. This plays well politically, is becoming more and more important to middle class voters, and would help position the Democrats for 2008.
Medicare Advantage is squarely in the sights of Democrats who have long viewed the program as an overly-generous giveaway to health plans. Here we may well see some action, likely as part of a compromise to get other legislative initiatives passed. Remember, Henry Waxman of California is likely to chair the committee with oversight on Medicare issues, and he has been an outspoken critic of MA plans.
Net – Medicare Advantage plans’ subsidies will likely decrease.
Finally, expect Congress to highlight the real and perceived transgressions of big managed care firms, including United Healthcare. The stock option dating problems that have hammered UHC may well result in the company’s execs spending some time under the klieg lights in a Congressional hearing room.
