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Jul
21

Monday catch-up

Summer is in full swing, which means the A/C is running at full blast in Florida and Texas, while those of us in upstate NY are gloating…I know, you will be soon when we’re subzero and you’re at 70…

Things are supposed to slow down somewhat – they haven’t yet. Here’s what happened last week while I was working on a couple projects last week.

P&C results

The P&C industry is doing well – very well. For the second straight year it will show an underwriting profit, and the combined is still almost three points below 100. Rating agency Fitch thinks things will deteriorate somewhat as the cost of weather-related cats increases; that and lower investment performance (as the equity markets cool off) will lead to lower return on surplus as well.  Still and all, things are looking pretty good – for the P&C industry.  That said, P&C financials are not exactly good; historical return on equity is really low and the cyclical nature of the industry is legend.

Work comp

One of my favorite states, Montana, is suffering from dramatic increases in already-high workers comps cost, driven in large part by drugs; pharmaceutical costs account for 16 percent of total medical compared to 11 percent nationally. Their top drug, accounting for almost 15 percent of total spend – Oxycontin.  That is about twice what it is nationally.

One more time folks – Oxycontin has almost NO PLACE IN WORKERS’ COMP.

Hopefully the state’s new medical guidelines will help reduce this.  Kudos to State Medical Director for Carla Huitt MD for highlighting the issue.

There’s a news brief from NCCI re claim frequency – they report that it continued its decline last year, with indemnity claims dropping 2 percent.

The Coventry work comp auction is proceeding, albeit without many of the big private equity firms. I’ve heard they are concerned about:

  • the PPO network, specifically Aetna’s unwillingness to help re-contract providers. As this is the crown jewel, the lack of a fail-safe strategy to preserve the network greatly reduces the deal’s appeal.
  • the lack of tech and other support for BR 4.0, the bill review platform.  With the layoff of much of the application support staff and chronic under-funding for BR 4.0, the new owners need to either private label someone else’s app or get out of bill review altogether.  Not good.
  • the mediocre-at-best-performance of the other businesses (case management, UR, PBM, etc)
  • the need to recruit a “name” exec to lead the company (nothing against current management, they’ve been handed an impossible task by mother Aetna)

I’d expect Apax/One Call to be the winning bidder – if there is one.  If that happens, the mega-humongous OCCM/Apax will have even more market power.  Methinks payers are going to be most worried about that.

Joe Boures has been promoted to CEO at Healthcare Solutions, replacing David George who stays on as Board Chair.  Under George, predecessor company Cypress Care acquired Procura to become Healthcare Solutions, then added PBM ScripNet and PBM/DME/HHC provider Modern Medical, making HCS one of only two companies to offer a full range of work comp managed care services. Joe is a friend and good man whose steady, thoughtful style will serve the company and its customers well. [disclosure – I have a very small equity position in HCS]

Also just heard that Acrometis has landed a new customer – MacRisk.

Implementing PPACA

For the states that opted out of expanding Medicaid, the proverbial chickens are headed home to roost – and they’re dropping loads of red ink on hospitals in the process.  That’s the news from Fitch,

Fitch has downgraded 10 entities [hospitals and health systems]. Of those, five are in states that have not participated in expanded Medicaid coverage. Several of those downgrades were driven by operating performance declines related to funding and reimbursement pressures, which may have been lessened by Medicaid expansion. Conversely, of the nine upgrades since Jan. 1, eight were hospitals in states that have expanded Medicaid. [emphasis added]

From Jonathan Cohn comes the news that states that decided to expand Medicaid have seen insurance coverage increase almost three times more than states that have foregone expansion.  As folks in these states are healthier to start with, the health disparity between the states will – depressingly – increase.

I’m really confused by House Speaker John Boehner’s decision to sue President Obama over alleged abuse of executive power; after all the caterwauling about immigration, Guantanamo, the border, drone strikes, recess appointments, and the Bowe Bergdahl trade, the best he can come up with is the delay in the employer mandate...

It doesn’t make sense.  Politically, there’s increasing evidence that voters are feeling better and better about PPACA, torpedoing what had been THE key talking point for GOP candidates this fall.  GOP senators and congresspeople have all but abandoned “Obamacare” as a talking point.  Bringing more attention to an issue that may redound to their opponents’ benefit is puzzling at best.

As evidence, I give you the news that political ads slamming “Obamacare” may well have resulted in higher enrollment in “blue” states.

Back to work now!

 

 


3 thoughts on “Monday catch-up”

  1. Joe,

    In regard to the Medicaid expansion issue, it would seem that the party that does not believe in evolution (i.e., Darwinism), believes in a slow, genocidal Social Darwinism, by focusing their budgetary policies on the wealthy, and denying the poor in their states the medical care that Medicaid expansion would provide.

  2. What is the position of Aetna and its work compensation industry? Today, Coventry Health Care’s settlement fund is to be signed by the judge.

    Is there a buyer for WC? or will WC just fail away?

    1. Nancy -thanks for the query. There are several potential buyers, however the leading candidate appears to be APAX – at least that’s what the rumor mill indicates. It is possible Aetna won’t find a buyer at a price they are willing to sell as CWC generates over $200 million in cash flow.

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Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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