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Aug
12

Claim counts, COVID, and (premature) conclusions

We know a LOT about how COVID and the COVID economy are affecting workers’ comp – and that’s what Mark Priven and I will dive into next week as we discuss “Pandemic, Premiums and Profits: Is It the Sky That’s Falling … or the Floor?” .

The free webinar (register here) is happening August 20 at 10 am Pacific, 1 pm Eastern. (attendance is limited, so sign up now to make sure you get a spot).

Mark is Vice President and Principal of Bickmore Actuarial, a highly regarded Actuary, and a very insightful analyst of all things workers’ comp. I’m honored to be on the virtual dais with Mark.

What triggered our decision to work together was a shared concern that there’s been way too much discussion about the potential, theoretical, possible, hypothetical costs of COVID itself – and (with one major exception) no discussion, analysis, projections, or discussion of the huge drop in workers’ comp claims – and the effects of that drop..

Frankly, prognostications about the damage COVID could do to profits just don’t stand up to scrutiny.  How an industry with a combined ratio of 85 and investment income of 11% will go from a 26% profit margin to a loss when COVID claims are not that common and all evidence indicates they aren’t that expensive is…puzzling.

One can – and some do – argue that we don’t have data on claim counts yet – and therefore it’s premature to discuss the impact.

But you can’t have it both ways – we know little about COVID, so making assumptions or statements about how the disease will affect workers’ comp is equally presumptuous.

Fact is we are fast approaching budget season for employers, insurers, TPAs, and service companies – and it is incumbent on those with data and expertise to share that information.

So, sign up, send us your questions, and Mark and I will do our best.

What does this mean for you?

Sign up here.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

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