It’s been four months since we talked about Ukraine, a period during which Russia put scores of thousands of poorly-equipped, pretty-much-untrained, and wholly incompetent civilian men into army uniforms (or facsimiles thereof) and fed them into the meat grinder that is Donetsk, Kherson, Bakhmut and surrounding areas.

With this result.

With things on the front lines pretty static, it’s time to think through the factors that will decide who wins. In layperson’s terms, I’d say there are three main drivers

People to do the fighting – today’s topic

Will to fight

Stuff to fight with

Yes, this is pretty basic, but stick with me here.

The “people” need to be found, trained, equipped, clothed, fed and led. These are all hard to do – especially in winter, in Ukraine, after 10 months of often-brutal combat dominated by death-by-artillery.

In addition to the usual recruiting efforts focused on patriotism and duty, Putin has resorted to two primary sources – poor men from far eastern Russia, many of whom don’t speak Russian, have never traveled outside their immediate area, are poorly educated and according to some reports not really interested in fighting.

Prisoners who, in exchange for a release from jail, agree to enter the army, often in mercenary units set up by the Wagner Group make up a large portion of the new recruits.

Reports from these new “soldiers” indicate they are mostly cannon fodder, placed on the front line to be killed by Ukrainian forces while the regular Russian army sites in relatively safe trenches in the rear.

This is typical (from Ukrayinska Pravda)

Quote from Agafonov: “We were dumped into the forest and ordered to entrench; we had only three shovels for the battalion, and there was no support at all. We entrenched as best we could, and in the morning the [Ukrainian] attack started. [Ukrainian forces used] artillery, Grad MLRS, mortars and copters; we were just shot.

What is disturbing is the lack of information about casualties and replacements in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). After way too much time spent searching the interwebs I was unable to find any credible data on recent losses, replacements, or changes in AFU manpower.

It’s highly likely that Russia has more men, even after both sides have suffered horrendous losses. (while there are women in both countries’ armed forces, men make up the vast majority of the fighting forces) It’s also clear that many new Ukrainian recruits are not exactly fully trained.

However, 5 weeks training by professional soldiers in Britain is a lot better than a few days with minimal training on how to actually shoot, load, and clean a rifle, bandage a wound, use a radio, read a map, and recognize a Russian or Ukrainian fighter jet.

Oh, and the UK and other European countries supporting the training give every trainee “combat clothing, body armour and ear defence, waterproofs and sleeping bags plus a fully stocked individual first aid kit and extreme cold weather kits…”

(for more on this I suggest you review multiple sources, as this will enable you to question each of them and arrive at your own conclusions…  War on the Rocks, Phillips Payson O’Brien, Institute for the Study of War are three I’ve found useful)

Tomorrow – the will to fight.

Those who continue to deny the results of the 2020 elections are anti-American; they seek to reject any result they don’t like. That is incredibly dangerous and a threat to our Republic.

Across more than 60 cases in 12 states, final rulings in every court case – including every one overseen by Trump-appointed judges – rejected allegations of fraud and confirmed the results of the election. 

If you care about democracy, you need to know which candidates are election deniers – or more accurately anti-American.

here’s just a few…

To find election deniers running for office in your state; just click on this link, then your state to identify those who refuse to accept the will of the people.

Need more info?

Trump’s own Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity disbanded having discovered nothing.

The Heritage Foundation Election Fraud Database has compiled every instance of any kind of voter fraud it could find since 1982. It contains 1,296 incidents, a minuscule percentage of the votes cast.

A study of results in three states where all voters are mailed actual ballots, a practice some allege to be rife with fraud, found just 372 possible cases of illegal voting of 14.6 million cast in the 2016 and 2018 general elections — 0.0025 percent.

After seven months of brutal, grinding war, Russia’s military is nearing collapse.

The net – Russia is in deep trouble, so deep that its collapse may well lead to regime change. 

Ukraine has retaken over a thousand square miles of its territory in the past few days.  In the process it has captured hundreds of vehicles, Russian locomotives and rolling stock (freight cars etc), thousands of Russian soldiers, and untold quantities of ammunition and supplies.

First minutes after the liberation of Vovchansk by the Ukrainian defenders; Russian flag comes down, Ukrainian goes up.

you gotta watch this video of a Ukrainian farmer…he’s complaining there are dozens of abandoned Russian tanks but he doesn’t get to keep any…:(

You won’t find much support for that prediction (Russian military collapse) in your usual news feeds, but hear me out. (my past discussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is here)

1. Russia is running out of troops and there are reports it will NOT/cannot send any more to Ukraine.
   1. very scary thought – Putin may threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons…
2. Russia’s vaunted military turned out to be a paper tiger due to:
   1. lack of maintenance,
   2. poor training,
   3. very low morale,
   4. awful supply situation,
   5. terrible lack of communication security
3. Western support (except for Germany, which has been pretty damn unhelpful) and commitment to suffering through energy cutoffs has been critical to Ukrainian successes.
4. US and other NATO nations are undoubtedly sharing intelligence from intercepted Russian signals, intelligence that ensures the Ukrainians know what Russia will do before their field officers do.
5. Even if Russia goes to a full-scale mobilization to dramatically increase the size of its military, that won’t work because:
   1. it won’t happen in time to stop the ongoing destruction of its forces in Ukraine
   2. there aren’t enough experienced, veteran, capable officers and soldiers to train up the new recruits
   3. there isn’t equipment, vehicles, ammunition supplies, and a logistical infrastructure and capability to supply new troops and no ability to build/buy/manufacture and transport everything they need to fight.

The net – Russia is in deep trouble, so deep that its collapse may well lead to regime change. Meanwhile, Putin is celebrating the biggest Ferris Wheel in Europe…which promptly broke down a day after Putin’s speech.

Metaphor, anyone?

What does this mean for you?

Hang in there.  Ukraine deserves your support.

After more than six months of war that some were thinking was going to enter a stalemate, Ukraine flipped the tables on Russia.  Ukrainian forces are driving Russians back in multiple areas, although this is a hard slog.

Ukraine has several distinct advantages in this war.

1.  Russians don’t really know why they are in Ukraine. Ukrainians know why they are fighting.  The ones on the front lines certainly do and pretty much every other Ukrainian does as well.  Their homes have been attacked, children murdered, and their economy wrecked by a madman. The will to fight is critically important.
2. The west’s support of Ukraine has enabled it to hold Russia off while building the capacity to defeat the invasion.  We’ve spent billions – thanks to you, American, British, Dutch, Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, French, Polish, Italian, Pakistani, Czech and other tax payers. This has been an investment worth every penny, as the West’s total commitment has shown other would-be territory grabbers (looking at you China) that far from being the “decadent west” we are guarantors of peoples’ right to self determine their government. (sure we get this wrong far too often, but on balance we’re mostly on the right side.)
3. Russia’s kleptocracy (a state ruled by thieves) has ensured their armed forces have crappy, outdated, and poorly maintained equipment. Sure they have far more cannons and tanks and planes and rockets – but a lot of those don’t work, are worn out or hopelessly obsolete – or their soldiers don’t know how to use them effectively.
4. Russia’s army has a fundamental flaw – they can’t get the food fuel ammunition and spare parts to where it’s needed. (posted  on this way back in March with lots of details)
   If anything it has gotten worse. The HIMARS rocket systems and other really good artillery we’ve sent Ukraine are destroying ammunition and fuel dumps, blowing up communications centers, and killing dozens of high-ranking colonels and generals, de-capitating Russia’s army just when it is being attacked.

That’s enough of the cheerleading.

The awful truth is Ukraines’ military is losing hundreds of soldiers each week – far less than Russian losses, but devastating nonetheless. I cannot imagine how painful this is to each and every family that’s lost members due to Russian aggression; killed in an apartment building bored by the Russians, blown up by mines near a school, dead in combat or crushed in a shopping mall hit by Russian rockets.

What does this mean for you?

I’m very proud of what we Americans have done and are doing to support Ukraine.

You should be too.

Yes fuel and food prices are higher – make no mistake, that’s due to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.