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Sep
13

Wildly off-topic #9 – Russia’s military collapse

After seven months of brutal, grinding war, Russia’s military is nearing collapse.

The net – Russia is in deep trouble, so deep that its collapse may well lead to regime change. 

Ukraine has retaken over a thousand square miles of its territory in the past few days.  In the process it has captured hundreds of vehicles, Russian locomotives and rolling stock (freight cars etc), thousands of Russian soldiers, and untold quantities of ammunition and supplies.

First minutes after the liberation of Vovchansk by the Ukrainian defenders; Russian flag comes down, Ukrainian goes up.

you gotta watch this video of a Ukrainian farmer…he’s complaining there are dozens of abandoned Russian tanks but he doesn’t get to keep any…:(

You won’t find much support for that prediction (Russian military collapse) in your usual news feeds, but hear me out. (my past discussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is here)

  1. Russia is running out of troops and there are reports it will NOT/cannot send any more to Ukraine.
    1. very scary thought – Putin may threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons
  2. Russia’s vaunted military turned out to be a paper tiger due to:
    1. lack of maintenance,
    2. poor training,
    3. very low morale,
    4. awful supply situation,
    5. terrible lack of communication security
  3. Western support (except for Germany, which has been pretty damn unhelpful) and commitment to suffering through energy cutoffs has been critical to Ukrainian successes.
  4. US and other NATO nations are undoubtedly sharing intelligence from intercepted Russian signals, intelligence that ensures the Ukrainians know what Russia will do before their field officers do.
  5. Even if Russia goes to a full-scale mobilization to dramatically increase the size of its military, that won’t work because:
    1. it won’t happen in time to stop the ongoing destruction of its forces in Ukraine
    2. there aren’t enough experienced, veteran, capable officers and soldiers to train up the new recruits
    3. there isn’t equipment, vehicles, ammunition supplies, and a logistical infrastructure and capability to supply new troops and no ability to build/buy/manufacture and transport everything they need to fight.

The net – Russia is in deep trouble, so deep that its collapse may well lead to regime change. Meanwhile, Putin is celebrating the biggest Ferris Wheel in Europe…which promptly broke down a day after Putin’s speech.

Metaphor, anyone?

What does this mean for you?

Hang in there.  Ukraine deserves your support.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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