AHCA is not going to become law.
IF it passes the House, there’s no way it gets enough votes in the Senate. Two reasons.
- Senate Republicans are opposed to the bill.
- Enacting AHCA without massive changes would alienate core Trump voters.
Passing AHCA – without drastic changes – would be political suicide for politicians who voted for passage. And while pre-existing condition coverage is a big issue, the big issue is loss aversion – millions of Trump voters would lose coverage under AHCA.
The biggest winners – young, healthy people – don’t vote.
This from Nate Silver:
Republicans whose families make less than $30,000 a year were nearly three times more likely than those in families making at least $75,000 to say it was the government’s responsibility ensure Americans had health care coverage.
And from Jonathan Cohn – voters who stand to lose the most in insurance subsidies under AHCA are – by a wide margin – Trump voters…
Subsidy amounts lost by voters in 2016 election
AHCA drastically cuts assistance to older, lower-income Americans in rural areas, a demographic that overwhelmingly supported Trump. And, most of these voters earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, so they’ll be left:
- with far lower subsidies
- without coverage for pre-existing conditions
- facing insurance premiums that are much higher than today’s because AHCA allows insurers to charge older folks much higher premiums.
Some may cynically hope AHCA passes as it will doom the GOP in the 2018 elections. But the cost of that political calculation is far too high; the millions will lose coverage are those most in need of healthcare coverage.
Of course, Congress won’t suffer – they keep subsidies, pre-ex coverage, and all the other goodies.