Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Apr
1

Buffett buying Wellpoint

THIS WAS A SPECIAL POST IN HONOR OF APRIL 1.
In a deal set to be announced later this week, billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway unit will be acquiring troubled health plan Wellpoint.
This may be the first of several deals, as Buffett’s empire is flush with cash ($40 billion in BH’s operations alone) and looking for opportunities in businesses related to its core insurance operations. Indications are the sage of Omaha has been carefully following the fortunes of the health plan sector for years; he had not moved previously because, as he stated in one of his legendary annual letters; “prices are way too rich for my modest resources”. The recent dramatic declines in valuation (the sector is down over 35%) appear to have wakened Buffett’s legendary bargain-hunting instincts.
Wellpoint’s stock is trading just above its 52 week low, at a PE of under 8. Although no price has been mentioned, analysts expect a premium of 15-20%. Given BH’s current equity position, and stable stock price, “this will be no problem for them; it will likely be an all stock deal, and any Wellpoint stockholder who doesn’t want to trade in their paper for part of Buffett’s empire is crazier than Henry Paulson” (Henri Bludgeon, Merrill Lynch).
What does this mean for you?
Watch and learn.
Here’s the full press release.


Mar
31

What are they thinking?

A recent poll finds that 68% of Republicans think the US’ health care system is the world’s best.
Huh?
Are they really so brainwashed by the likes of O’Reilly, Limbaugh, and Coulter that they can’t see the reality staring them in their collective face?
Do they believe John McCain’s ‘straight talk’?
The health care system that costs twice as much as the average developed country and takes all that cash and delivers results on a par with many third-word countries?
A reality marked by access only via the ER for the uninsured (at 47 million and counting)?
A reality marked by billions in dollars for drugs that don’t do what their manufacturers claim?
Or is it just that the self-described Republicans (and I’m only speaking about the survey respondents) are part of the shrinking population of the self-satisfied and self-absorbed who don’t care that their neighbors are losing jobs and therefore health insurance?
Or are they…
ears.jpg
Regardless of the rationale, or lack thereof, it is brutally clear that the respondents are an isolated, unique group with beliefs that are wildly different from their fellow Americans. Because when you compare their views to those of independents, the differences are striking.
A few samples from the survey

  • US has the best health care system in the world – GOP 68%, Dem 32%, Ind 40%
  • Other countries have better systems – GOP 19% Dem 52% Ind 46%
  • Is the US system better or worse than Canada’s – better – GOP 63%, Dem 25%, Ind 34%
  • Worse than Canada’s? – GOP 16%, Dem 37%, Ind 36%

What does this mean?
GOP respondents are on one side of the chasm, with reality, and the independent voters who get that reality, on the other.


Mar
28

Aetna’s comp network – struggles and progress

My post a few days ago complimenting Aetna on their progress in a number of areas struck a few nerves and elicited more than a few emails from ballistic providers (a couple of the printable ones are in the comment section of that post).
There’s a bit of conflation going on here – my comments were focused on the company’s overall strategy while several critics took the big healthplan to task for it’s poor contracting in workers comp (where the product is Aetna Work Comp Access, or AWCA).
Yet they have valid concerns, concerns that are consistent with problems experienced by Aetna’s WC customers, lousy provider directory data, providers refusing to accept WC patients, heavy handed contracting efforts.
I’ve posted on these issues months ago, yet these issues persist. One provider group in Pennsylvania is so frustrated that they contacted state regulators, only to find out that many other providers had the same problem. Now, they are banding together (albeit informally) and asking regulators to outlaw PPOs in the state.
Other complaints relate to Aetna’s practice of ‘negative affirmation’ (my term, but you can use it). Aetna sends their currently-contracted group health providers a letter stating that unless the provider responds within X days, they will be automatically enrolled in AWCA at their group health rates. In defense of Aetna, their contracts with the providers allow this, as does state law. And providers can opt out at any time, so the damage done is rather limited.
Aetna recently decided to use certified mail instead of regular post when sending these letters to providers – the last batch of letters, some 50,000 in all, went out certified about a month ago. When I discussed this with an Aetna exec, he agreed that the mailing of the negative affirmation letters likely contributed to the provider data issues; AWCA is hopeful that the new certified letter will help.
Still, it is a wonder that it took the big insurer this long. Two big payers view AWCA’s PA data as the worst they have ever encountered. Providers routinely get buckets of mail from networks, and it is certain that many of these ‘negative affirmation’ letters end up in the trash as junk. The WC payers get a contract load from AWCA, construct panels of providers, direct injured workers to these providers, who then either a) don’t accept WC, b) can’t spell WC, c) treat the injured worker and then scream when their bill is slashed and protest to the insurance commissioner et al.
Now that AWCA is the de facto network of choice (due to the Coventry deal), some payers’ concern is there may be little motivation for the company to clean up its act. Even less than it had before the deal was struck and AWCA was working hard to compete with Coventry – now it enjoys near-monopoly status in many states, a condition that some payers think makes it less likely it will invest in provider relations.
That’s not the case, according to AWCA. They are investing in the business – hiring more account managers and provider relations staff and continuing to work on their data issues. They have a ways to go, but appear to be committed to working at it.
If you are sensing a little ambivalence here, you’re right. Payers are notorious for blaming everything on vendors while accepting little responsibility themselves. Vendors suggest improvements in processes and systems that would improve results, only to be told its not a priority for the payer. And part of the negativity about AWCA is undoubtedly from payers that are not holding up their end of the deal.
Yet I expect more from Aetna. They should be better than CorVel and Coventry’s WC division. Here’s hoping they get there, and soon.


Mar
27

Small is beautiful – in workers comp

In my consulting practice, I work with large, really large, and small payers – insurers and self-insured employers, as well as managed care firms – on managed care, claims, and related issues.
One of the best claims-managed care programs I’ve come across is at a relatively tiny insurance company. They have (generally) excellent relations with providers, tightly integrated medical management, claims and bill review, a keen grasp of cost drivers, and highly effective specialty programs. Their network penetration (albeit in a network direction state) is just under 90%.
Their results are impressive.
Medical costs (on a per-claim basis) for lost time claims have dropped dramatically over the last two years. While the industry’s costs were going up by 7.5% (NCCI stats), their clients enjoyed a double-digit decrease in medical expense.
How is this possible? They don’t have access to the actuaries, statisticians, or clinical experts resident at larger payers. They can’t afford expensive IT initiatives, integration projects, and sophisticated rules engine-driven document management processes.
What they do have is focus, an open mind and willingness to try new things, a commitment to do the right thing, and very little patience for bureaucracy. They also have medical folks doing medical management – the adjuster has the final say, but it is rare that the clinician’s recommendation is overturned.
I’m convinced the reason this payer is as successful as they are starts with and is driven by their culture and commitment to doing the right thing. Too often big payers’ plans get bogged down in the cloying mud of committees, process, debate and discussion. Internal rivalries and turf battles suck the life out of promising ideas. Individuals are far more concerned with looking good and checking boxes off their annual goals than actually making sure the programs reduce costs and improve outcomes.
Meanwhile costs continue to go up and care is less than optimal.
What does this mean for you?
It doesn’t have to be that way.


Mar
26

Should health plan stocks be dropping?

In a word, No.
The industry-specific event that triggered the recent selloff in health plan stocks was teh announcement by Wellpoint that they underpriced their premiums for certain products. This was followed by Humana’s problem – their Medicare Part D program is under pressure due to higher utilization, and Coventry’s statements to the effect that the flu bug was depressing their results.
The credit market debacle hasn’t helped either.
I have no idea why markets move, or why a seemingly minor announcement about increased medical costs due to a flu problem (the very definition of a non-recurring event) would depress the earnings of an entire sector. If I bought and sold stocks (which I don’t, my broker does with no input from me) I’d be buying these stocks for several reasons.
First, national health care reform is coming, and these health plans are going to have a huge growth opportunity.
Second, Coventry is one of the better-managed health plans, and their valuation does not reflect their demonstrated ability to consistently excel operationally.
Third, in an increasingly concentrated market, I’d expect the big guys to snap up the smaller ones – which will drive up their stock rices. The recent drop-off in prices should, if anything, make this more likely. That said, the volatility and tightness in the credit markets may make deals tougher to pull off.
Fitch (the ratings agency) opines that the industry’s current EBITDA margins should remain around the 9% mark – consistent with past results


Mar
25

McCain’s expensive health plan

Now that McCain is the presumptive GOP Presidential nominee, I’ll be spending a bit more time analyzing his health care plan. I’ve examined his plan before, but the Senator has made some progress, refining concepts and defining specifics.
First, lets find out how much this trip on the ‘straight talk express’ will cost.
According to McCain’s website, the plan will “eliminate the bias toward employer-sponsored health insurance, and provide all individuals with a $2,500 tax credit ($5,000 for families) to increase incentives for insurance coverage.”
“All” evidently means just that – no income indexing, cap based on total taxpayer income, or any other means test. Folks making a gazillion bucks get the same credit as those earning income below the poverty level.
McCain would likely take the revenue created by repealing the employer tax breaks for health insurance (noted in his proposals) to fund his plan’s new health tax credits. The result? The cost of the tax credits would be $206 billion in FY 2009 and $3.6 trillion over 10 years.
Notably, nowhere on McCain’s website or in his policy papers does he say what the plan will cost. But his statements leave little doubt as to what he wants to do, and the Joint Committee on Taxation’s report on the McCain health plan clearly demonstrates the financial impact of his plan.
Equally notable, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, one of McCain’s key advisers agreed that his plan would increase the budget deficit, saying “It will make deficits expand up front, no question…” (Holtz goes on to say that helping corporations helps workers…)
McCain’s plan will cost more than either the Clinton or Obama plans. To figure out whether it will be worth it, we’ll have to consider whether the $2500/5000 credit will be enough to help folks actually buy insurance and reduce the number of uninsured.


Mar
24

The small frauds

Health care costs are higher because of waste fraud and abuse. How much higher is a subject of debate, but common wisdom suspects we’re paying hundreds of billions more each year than we should.
There are big frauds and abuses and small ones, but my bet is that together the small ones add up to more than all the big ones.
One example – pharmacy. CVS just settled a suit brought by CMS regarding alleged Medicaid fraud. The issue? There are two version of antacid ranitidine, a generic version of Zantac. The tablet form which is much cheaper than the capsule form. CVS allelgedly had a corporate policy of filling Medicaid scripts with the more expensive capsule form, a practice that, if true, would be a direct violation of the law.
While not admitting guilt, CVS did agree to pay the Feds and 15 states almost $37 million, and to stop the practice. The huge pharmacy chain refused to admit guilt, instead an exec gave the usual mumbo-jumbo. But their public comments are revealing – here’s how it was reported in the Florida Sun-Sentinel (March 19)
In a statement, CVS Caremark said, “For many years, the company purchased and stocked the capsule form of ranitidine across its chain of retail stores for dispensing to all patients, not just Medicaid recipients, due to the fact that the acquisition cost of capsules was lower than the cost of tablets”.
Reads like an admission that CVS knew darn well that the capsule version was generating a lot more profit.
What does this mean for you?
Private payers – check those NDC codes, and check ’em carefully. Chances are you’re also paying for versions your docs didn’t order.
Thanks to California HealthLine for the heads up.


Mar
20

I like what Aetna’s been doing

Wellpoint has been slammed (justifiably) for its rescission practices (retroactively canceling insureds’ policies when they have the temerity to actually get care) and sued for allegedly inflating earnings expectations (although some of the slamming is, in my view, unjustified).
United Healthcare has also crossed the stupid line a time or four, inflating the CEO’s compensation package by back-dating stock options and fumbling the acquisition and integration of Pacificare, publicly fighting with providers (although occasionally I have to come down on UHC’s side) and mishandling customer complaints.
HealthNet has not escaped unscathed either. The company went way way past the stupid line when it actually paid bonuses based on executives’ success in canceling individual policies (but only for individuals with high claims).
Aetna has been able to avoid embarrassing itself, while making some significant strides in areas that matter. Whether its chronic disease management, sharing data re provider quality and price, or publishing data on outcomes, the huge insurer is moving in the right direction.
Aetna has also been able to build a substantial presence in the work comp network business, essentially forcing its largest competitor to replace its networks with Aetna’s (while sticking with WC despite doubts among industry experts (that would include me) that Aetna had the patience required to survive and prosper).
Their latest move also makes sense – Aetna is investigating a P4P model for pharma, potentially basing payment on efficacy for the wildly expensive specialty drugs.
Perhaps this is partially due to lessons learned after the company’s well-publicized stumbles after merging with USHealthcare a decade ago. For a while, the staid, customer-oriented culture at the old mother Aetna looked to be overwhelmed by the aggressive, no-holds-barred, occasionally-downright-nasty USHC approach. Management righted the ship just in time, and Aetna has enjoyed better relations with providers, solid financial returns, and growing membership for several years now.
As one reader pointed out some months ago, mother Aetna is certainly capable of doing much more – pushing disease management further and faster, becoming more aggressive on P4P, and building out its member services applications.
But compared to its competitors, Aetna is doing well. Sure, the stock is down by 25% so far this year, but that’s a result UHC, Wellpoint, HealthNet, Humana, and Coventry owners would take in a heartbeat.


Mar
19

HWR – the ‘fearless leader’ edition

Here in New England we’re about to welcome spring – that glorious time of year when the wind howls and the rain pours and mud covers all, best enjoyed while standing outside freezing your tukus watching one of your progeny splash up and down a lacrosse field.
What better time to sit in a warm car, editing the latest edition of HWR?

Continue reading HWR – the ‘fearless leader’ edition


Mar
17

Group health v workers comp

One of the frequent questions from potential investors, regulators, and interested parties is why the group health payers are not doing more in workers comp. With the notable exception of Aetna and Wellpoint, the big group health players’ work comp activity is minimal (and in the case of Wellpoint, just a bit over that threshold).
Many group health execs consider entering into the comp business, figuring that if their company can do so well in group, they should be able to clean up in comp – which is in many ways still in the Dark Ages when it comes to medical management.
Superficially, they are right – but only superficially.
The primary difference is that in comp, the payer cares about the claimant’s functionality – if the injured worker can’t work, the payer is ‘on the hook’ for lost wages as well as medical care. This is not the case in group, where the payer couldn’t care less if the claimant returned to work or is sitting home.

Continue reading Group health v workers comp


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

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