Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Feb
20

Iraq’s impact on insurers

The continuing strife in Iraq and Afghanistan and its effect on the insurance and employer communities is the subject of an excellent monograph by Robert Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute. Hartwig notes as the returning veterans are reintegrated into the working community, employers will face challenges addressing the needs of vets with physical and/or mental health problems resulting from the conflict.
The Americans with Disabilities Act requires employers to make reasonable accommodations for employees with disabilities. And, with over 15,000 servicemen and women injured to date, and about 30% of all troops serving in these areas citizen soldiers – either from the National Guard or Reserves – many will come back to employers who will need to address their unique circumstances.
The impact may well have a significant impact on workers compensation. According to Dr. Hartwig, workplace claims arising from injuries suffered during these conflicts will be covered by workers compensation insurance. Many of the states have shut down their Second Injury Funds, financial pools designed to cover injuries arising from previous claims. Now, with these funds disappearing, the financial liability for claims related to wartime injuries will be the responsibility of workers comp insurers and self-insured employers.
Taking into account the Pentagon’s plans through 2009, present troop levels and injury rates, Hartwig predicts more than 60,000 wounded troops will be returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.
What does this mean for you?
A “hidden tax” on insurers, adding to the total cost of these conflicts.


Feb
20

Repackagers’ margins

Physicians and clinics are finding that dispensing drugs to patients can be a very profitable venture. Advocates are claiming that the practice improves the quality of care and ensures the patient receives the necessary scripts.
Let’s take the quality of care issue first. No question – an obstacle to compliance is the requirement that the injured worker has to get the script filled. Therefore, the dispensing of meds by docs makes sense. The right drug gets into the patient’s hands quickly.
OK. That’s a good thing. But at what price?
An analysis by Alex Swedlow (data provided by Alex to me) et al at the California Workers Compensation Research Institute on 2004 data indicates the price for repackaged drugs is from two times higher than the fee schedule (for ibuprofen) to twelve times higher (generic Zantac). (CWCI will publish the full study in the near future)
And, repackaged drugs accounted for less than a third of all scripts, but over half of all dollars paid. This is especially troubling when one considers the overwhelming majority of the top 20 drugs are generic.
Sources indicate that the problem grew even worse last year, with some payers indicating a majority of scripts were for repackaged drugs.
What does this mean for you?
Higher costs for WC payers, businesses, and taxpayers in California.


Feb
17

apologies for the multiple notices

several recent posts have inadvertently been sent out multiple times to subscribers. No, I’m not that persistent – looks like a new software/IE glitch that I just figured out.
Changing over to a new version of the posting software shortly; manual fix in now and the new version should fix it.


Feb
17

FDA OK’s, Insurers Pay

When the (registration required) FDA approves new medical devices for specific conditions, insurers are almost always required to cover them. Even if the approval makes no sense, the device fails in clinical trials, and there is no conclusive evidence of its efficacy.
The cost per case for the device and surgery is about $25,000; over 500 implants have been performed to date (the majority during the so-called clinical study).
Dr. Daniel G. Schultz, director of the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, approved an electrical stimulator for the treatment of depression, despite the unanimous opinion of the Center’s clinical staff that the device had no discernable impact. A Senate committee investigating the FDA could find
no previous instance in which the director of the center had approved a device in the face of unanimous opposition from staff scientists and administrators beneath him. “(NYTimes)
In fact, in a study conducted by the device’s manufacturer, the device utterly failed to produce any measurable impact on depression in the study group.
Now that the device is approved for treatment of depression, expect manufacturer Cyberonics to put on a full-court press to get doctors to prescribe it. This over the concerns expressed on the floor of the Senate:
“I am greatly concerned the FDA standard for approval may not have been met here, and if that’s the case it raises further difficult questions about whether Medicare or Medicaid dollars should be used to pay for this device now,” Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said during a speech on the Senate floor.” (Reuters)
What does this mean for you?
More of your dollars spent on highly questionable and really expensive technology.


Feb
17

P&C Industry results

Wilma, Katrina, et al hammered insurer profits almost as badly as they hit the Gulf Coast, resulting in the insurance industry losing $2.8 billion during the first three quarters of 2005. There is actually good news in this, as the losses forced insurers to stop cutting prices, thereby starting a downward trend in industry financials.
According to “Insurance Journal”,
“Before Hurricane Katrina, rate decreases and competition on many lines began to emerge throughout the majority of 2005. However, following this event, the trend of rate declines reversed on some lines of business, particularly in those areas directly impacted by the hurricane, and stalled on others. While this rate environment will have a positive impact on future results, A.M. Best believes the retreat from rate decreases will be short-lived.
The insurance industry’s cycles are well-known and well-documented – it marches off the same cliff over and over again, each time promising itself that it won’t be that stupid again.
History predicts otherwise.
I’d expect rates to stay somewhat firm, as early forecasts are for a storm season every bit as fierce as the one just passed. And, it is coming up in a few short months.
What does this mean for you?
A chance to tell me what a lousy prognosticator I am if rates plummet.


Feb
16

Repackagers and the myth of AWP

From Jim Andrews of Cypress Care comes a heads-up of an article by a former California state representative who’s endorsing the doctor-dispensing trend, noting that it has “small costs and huge benefits.”
Perhaps to his consulting clients, who include the drug repackagers that supply the drugs to docs.
Here’s the deal. The CA fee schedule drastically reduced the amount paid for drugs under workers comp by requiring compliance with the Medi-Cal fee schedule. I have issues w the drastic reduction, but that’s for another post.
So, entrepreneurs sensed an opportunity. The new fee schedule applied to drugs speicfically listed under Medi-Cal; drugs that were not listed were to be paid at the old fee schedule, which was much much much more generous.
Surprise – these wily entreprenueurs figured out that if they repackaged drugs from lots of 100 into 90 or 50 or 101, they fell outside the fee schedule. And, there was no Average Wholesale Price per se, as these creative business folk were creating a whole new drug/dosage/count combination. Voila, they came up with their own “AWP”.
In the article on Workers Comp Exec, the ex-legislator (Thomas Calderon) notes that “The drug debate has centered on the so-called “loophole” created by SB 228 allowing doctors to bill at the pre-SB 228 fee schedule, which is 140 percent of the average wholesale price (AWP). But has this loophole raised rates to employers? Absolutely not (no proof statement provided by Calderon)…We could do as I suggested above by using 90 percent of AWP. Another way would be to increase the handling fee to reflect the costs of dispensing.”
Well, gee Tom, if your clients are setting the AWP, and then you are offering a 10% “discount” off that AWP, how exactly does that reduce payers’ costs? I should note that several of my payer clients are seeing costs for these repackaged scripts that are five to ten times higher than for scripts that are covered under the Medi-Cal fee schedule.
Calderon is disingenuous at best, and advocating cheating the system, patients, and employers at worst.
Repackagers could add value, patients could get their drugs faster, and docs could make a few bucks on the side, and everyone would be happier. But the only people making out on this deal are Calderon’s clients and a few docs who are taking advantage of the system.
What does this mean for you?
We need to fix this loophole.


Feb
16

Bird flu – the Katrina of the health insurance industry?

I’ve been avoiding posting on this because there are so many smart people who know a lot more than I about epidemiology, flu transmission, viral mutation, and public health. Thank goodness for that.
But, a post by Revere at EffectMeasure scared me silly.
If this disease mutates (and reports indicate it is only two mutations away from becoming transmissable from human to human) and travels to the US (which it is sure to do) we are going to face not only a public health crisis, but an insurance crisis as well.
Who’s paying for the tamiflu, intensive care, respirators, and hospital charges? Medicare, Medicaid (taxpayers), insurance companies and self-insured employers. The industry has done an excellent job of managing medical loss ratios by negotiating with providers and increasing prices. Many health plans pride themselves on this, and so they should.
What we haven’t done, nor do we have any experience in, is planning for a pandemic. Here’s a few numbers that may do to you what Revere did to me.
If the bird flu is similar to the relatively mild flu pandemic of 1968, the WHO prediction is for between 2-7 million deaths worldwide, and millions more infected. That may be optimistic.
If it is similar to the 1918 flu, projections are for 150 MILLION deaths, and hundreds of millions more infected. Not to mention a tremendous impact on the world economy, transportation, trade,
The US has about 5% of the world population. Extrapolating from the higher number, we could see 7.5 million deaths and tens of millions sickened. Let’s say that number is way too high, as we have an excellent health care infrastructure, lots of money, and lots of docs and pretty good public health. All those positives may reduce the impact by, say, 90%. So, we are left with 750,000 Americans dying and millions more sick.
What does this mean for you?
I don’t see how the US health insurance industry can pay for this.


Feb
16

Health care rationing in the US and Britain

Cost is preventing cancer patients in both the US and Britain from receiving certain cancer drugs. There are striking parallels between yesterday’s post on the price of cancer drug Avastin and its impact on patients and an article in today’s NYTimes on the decision by Britian’s National Health Service to deny Herceptin (free subscription required) to women with early stage breast cancer.
In both cases, the decision by payers to not cover the full cost of the drugs is based in part on a lack of clinical evidence. Only in part. The other basis for the decision is clearly cost related. Britian’s NHS is under very heavy pressure to keep costs under control. This pressure has come up against patient advocacy groups and physicians who want to be able to treat as they see fit. Eerily similar to the situation on this side of the Atlantic, where patients find themselves unable to afford drugs that their physicians think will help them battle cancer.
The tendency is to personalize the problem by focusing on one patient. While there are individually painful stories, they take away from a very important, albeit painful, discussion that both Britain and the US must have about cost, benefits, and opportunity cost.
The patient profiled in the Times lives in an area administered by the Swindon Primary Care Trust. The Trust is looking at the cost of paying for Herceptin for 20 potential recipients of the drug, balanced against the needs of all 200,000 residents they have to provide care for under a finite budget. There are 20 women with early stage breast cancer that theoretically might benefit from Herceptin; at a cost of $40,000 each, that’s $8 million annually.
For all those that decry the British health system’s inherent rationing of health care, I would ask if it is “better” to spend that $8 million on a drug without proven efficacy for that specific condition for 20 patients, or use it to provide pre-natal care to prevent low birth weight babies; fund an anti-smoking program to reduce future cancers; or perhaps buy vaccines and treatments for the bird flu that is just off Britain’s shores.
Anyone for playing God?


Feb
15

Comp claim frequency drops in CA

Excellent news out of the California Workers Compensation Institute (one of my favorite research outfits) that the frequency of comp claims has dropped significantly after enactment of reforms. The decrease, of 13% from 2004 to 2005, continues a decline that has seen comp injuries drop over 60% since 1990.
Self insured employers saw an even bigger decrease of 17%.
Even better news – according to Workers Comp Executive:
“n addition to frequency, claims costs have also started to decline thanks the recent reforms along with pure premium rates. CWCI points out that with claims frequency at a record low, additional rate decreases will depend on what changes state regulators, the courts or the legislature make to the current reforms.”
What does this mean for you?
A lower cost of doing business in California.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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