Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Sep
15

Katrina’s impact on health care reform measures

Katrina and the federal government’s reaction to same will put Medicaid reform and other health care measures on the back burner for the foreseeable future. And, two of the key Senators on the Senate Finance Committee charged with finding $10 billion in reductions in Medicaid over the next five years have come out against the cuts.
Is an article in California HealthLine, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) was quoted in a letter to the chairman of the committee:
“Smith said, “I do want to reform Medicaid. But this is not the time to take on Medicaid, nor other entitlements for the poor. … To do it now is counterproductive and insensitive.”
In addition, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) on Wednesday in a separate letter asked Republican leaders to focus on Hurricane Katrina-related legislation instead of the planned agenda. They wrote, “Under the present circumstances, we believe it would be misguided to proceed with fast-track consideration of legislation that would place at risk services to those in need and divert resources that are necessary to fund the federal response to this tragedy.”
Katrina may well impact state Medicaid budgets as well, with the storm’s victims seeking medical care for acute and chronic conditions from the storm.
More to come.


Sep
14

Medicare physician reimbursement cuts

The latest news from Washington indicates the cut in Medicare reimbursement scheduled to go into effect on 1/1/06 may actually occur. The reduction of 4.3% is a hot topic amongst physicians, many of whom are claiming they will not continue to treat Medicare patients if the cuts go through.
Two of the key Senators on the Finance Committee (which has jurisdiction over CMS) have stated their desire to rescind the cuts. According to Congressional Quarterly, “Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said he and Senate Finance Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are “not going to let those cuts go into effect this year”.
The fate of the proposed fee reduction will not just affect Medicare. Many group health and HMO reimbursement arrangements as well as states’ workers compensation fee schedules are based on Medicare.
Yet more evidence that when CMS gets a chill, the rest of the health care payers catch a cold.
What does this mean for you?
Keep an eye on Congress’ actions, or lack thereof, on this reduction. Regardless of the action taken or not, it will affect health care payers’ bottom lines.


Sep
13

Aetna Workers Comp leader search

Aetna’s workers comp managed care entity (Aetna Workers’ Compensation Advantage, or AWCA) is looking internally for a new leader to replace recently departed Robyn Walsh. Walsh retired from Aetna recently, joining several other senior execs in taking advantage of the vesting and retirement plan.
Sources indicate that Aetna’s search is concentrating on internal staff. While this is admirable, it is also somewhat curious. Aetna got out of the workers compensation business several years ago when it sold its P&C business to the Travelers. With one or two exceptions, most of the AWCA staff have very limited WC experience. Industry knowledge is critical in workers comp, both to build a credible product and to speak credibly to potential customers.
With the very limited success enjoyed by AWCA to date, I wonder if their internal push is more out of necessity than desire. It is indeed difficult to see how this venture has been able to survive as long as it has with one customer in a single state. Perhaps Aetna does not believe it will be able to attract outside talent, and therefore is concentrating its search internally.
On the other hand, given Coventry’s lack of success in finding a leader for its First Health WC subsidiary, perhaps Aetna is just being smart. Perhaps.
Other sources indicate Aetna made several runs at a workers comp pharmacy benefit management firm earlier this year.
This is another head scratcher. Most WC PBMs are independent; buyers do not see much synergy between regular medical networks and PBMs; and given the dollars on the table, there would have been better, more strategic places for Aetna to invest.
What does this mean for you?
Keep an eye on Aetna, and if you are interested in contracting with them, make sure you are contractually protected if they exit the business.


Sep
11

Katrina’s insured losses

Katrina’s impact on the insurance industry will be greater than first anticipated. With insured losses now estimated to be in the $30 billion to $60 billion range, this hurricane is the most expensive event in insurance history.
Losses are from wind, flood, and fire, and will certainly include property, business interruption, fire, flood, environmental liability and impairment, crime, life, and health. The latest estimates from Risk Management Solutions are for losses of $15 – $25 billion for the New Orleans flood alone, with the rest of the costs for other losses due to other causes.
The impact of Katrina will be felt in all lines of insurance around the globe. Because a substantial portion of the losses will be borne by reinsurers, excess premium rates will increase to help cover costs while availability will decrease. In turn, primary insurers will have to raise rates to cover their losses and the increased reinsurance premiums.
Fortunately, Katrina came at a time when overall property and casualty insurance rates have been decreasing. According to MarketScout, property insurance rates dropped 7% over the last year, while workers’ comp rates decreased 7%, inland marine 5%, and umbrella/excess 11%. Overall, P&C rates were down 6% over the prior year.
Predictions in the industry are for rates to stay level if not increase slightly. The good news for insurance buyers is the industry is quite healthy with solid profits and substantial increases in reserves over the last two years.
While the insurance industry is much maligned, events like Katrina clearly demonstrate the industry’s value to society. By spreading risk across a very wide customer base, the industry will be able to cover losses while continuing to provide coverage for those who desire insurance.
What does this mean for you?
As devastating as Katrina has been and will continue to be, the insurance industry has weathered this most devastating of storms, and will come through in fine shape. That is good news.


Sep
8

Medicare Part D participating plans

Medicare’s Part D program is gaining momentum with several large for-profit health plans expanding on their plans to offer the program to seniors. Among the plans, Aetna, United Health Group, and Cigna are launching programs nationally, with Humana doing so in over 40 states.
According to the Detroit Free Press,
“Goldman Sachs projects that nearly 17.5 million seniors — about 41% of those eligible to participate — will enroll in the drug plan in 2006….Participating seniors will spend an average $792 for prescription drugs in 2006, excluding premiums, or 37% less than the $1,257 cost without the benefit, according to a July 2004 report by the Congressional Budget Office.”
That begs the question – why won’t the other 59% enroll? The reason is simple – their premiums will be higher than the anticipated costs. Thus, the seniors that will join up will be those who will financially benefit, and the ones who won’t see savings won’t enroll.
Doesn’t sound like a money maker for the PBMs, unless their losses are subsidized by Uncle Sam.
I still can’t figure out what makes this so attractive to private health plans.
Anyone?


Sep
5

Donna Shalala on health care reform

Donna Shalala is an articulate, convincing, intelligent spokesperson for health care reform. She manages to be politely partisan, reflecting her long history as a liberal Democrat, using history to illustrate her perspective on appropriate solutions for the nation’s health care problems. She is also fun; Shalala knows her football, has a great sense of humor, and loves to engage in both.
Such are my views after interviewing the current president of the University of Miami and ex-Secretary of Health and Human Services, sitting with her at a banquet honoring recipients of the Choice Awards for Excellence in Workers Compensation, and listening to her keynote speech at that event.
Without directly endorsing a single payer system, Shalala made a strong argument for single payer national health care, noting that the Federally-run Medicare program’s health care costs are increasing at a rate well under that of private insurance while incurring administrative expenses that are one-third those in the private sector.
As an avowed capitalist, I’m a big believer in the free market, consumer choice, the invisible hand et al. Unfortunately, health care is not a typical economic good, where the buyer selects the product or service by balancing cost and quality/outcome/appeal. This is for a rather simple reason – in health care, the heaviest users of health care services pay little to nothing for the (most) services. The person ordering and/or performing the service, the physician, has no incentive or little interest in considering cost.
The payer, which is the insurer/employer, is a transaction processor/funds transfer agent who is also tasked with “managing” the usage of health care by the recipient that is ordered by the recipient’s physician.
Not a very clean system from an economist’s point of view.
Whether you agree or disagree with Shalala’s politics, her presentation on the history of managed care was compelling. It made it abundantly clear that the free market system is unable to constrain the growth in health care costs.
The follow on to that issue is industrial competitiveness. For companies such as GM, IBM, and CostCo who actually contribute significant sums to pay for their employees’ health insurance (and pay taxes to subsidize Medicaid programs used by other companies who do not provide coverage) health care costs are a major competitive problem. Toyota, Daewoo, Hyundai, VW et al have significantly lower health care costs than GM’s $1500 per vehicle.
So, the “free market” that some are so ardently advocating as the solution to the nation’s ills is actually hurting US employers whose underlying costs are higher than their competitors.
What does this mean for you?
Both Shalala and Bob Laszewski of Health Policy and Strategy Associates have stated that when enough large employers get behind health care reform, it will happen.
That day is fast approaching.


Sep
2

Katrina’s costs by individual insurer

Insurance Journal has posted a quick summary of the potential impact of Katrina on insurance. Here are excerpts.
Note that some of the insurers below are reinsurers, who provide insurance to primary insurers who want to protect themselves from excessive claims resulting from disasters like Katrina.
Insurance Journal –
* Vesta Insurance Group Inc. (VTA.N:) said on Sept. 1 it expects the preliminary gross loss from the first landfall of Hurricane Katrina to be in the range of $500,000 to $1.2 million.
* Alfa Corp. (ALFA.O:) said on Sept. 1 preliminary estimates indicate storm losses will be less than $125 million, with no impact on its third quarter earnings. EUROPE
* World’s largest reinsurer, Munich Re (MUVGn.DE:), said on Aug. 30 it may have claims of up to 400 million euros ($488 million), before taxes and before the amount the company can pass on to other reinsurers. It expects the overall insured loss to be $15 billion to $20 billion.
* The Lloyd’s of London insurance market said on Aug. 30 it expects to receive “significant insurance claims,” largely from offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, property damage and claims from businesses forced to close. It has asked all the insurers to supply claims estimates by Sept. 12.
* Hannover Re (HNRGn.DE:), the world’s fourth largest reinsurer, said on Aug. 31 it was “extremely unlikely” to hit its 430 million to 470 million euros profit target for 2005 as a result of claims from Katrina. It expects Katrina to be the most costly U.S. storm, topping Hurricane Andrew’s bill of about $21 billion.
* Swiss Re (RUKN.VX:), the world’s second largest reinsurer, said on Aug. 31 it expects claims of about $500 million. It forecast total insured losses of around $20 billion.
* Paris-based reinsurer Scor (SCOR.PA:) said on Sept. 1 Katrina may cost it 25 million to 35 million euros.
* Converium (CHRN.S:), the Zurich-based reinsurance company, said on Sept. 1 it saw claims from the hurricane of between $10 million and $20 million. It put the total bill to the industry as a whole at around $25 billion.
($1=.8197 Euro)
Note that these statements were from yesterday and the days before – the latest news out of New Orleans, Mississippi, Alabama, and other areas indicates that losses from looting, flooding, fires, and other causes may significantly increase total claims. In addition, follow on problems such as hospitals losing electricity, generators failing, and emergency services problems may add to the loss of life and thereby increase claims.
Note – I’m trying to keep this objective and dispassionate. That is incredibly difficult. This is not merely a financial disaster, it is a human tragedy on so many levels. Do not misinterpret the tone of these posts as one that implies lack of concern or awareness of the human impact of Katrina. Thanks.


Sep
2

Another bad broker caught

The latest insurance broker to plead guilty (without actually pleading guilty) is HRH, aka Hilb Rogal &Hobbs, who agreed to pay $30 million into a compensation fund plus a $250,000 fine to settle charges related to rebating, account steering, and broker compensation activities at it’s Connecticut subsidiary.
According to Insurance Journal;
“The state complaint against HRH centered on its dealings with a hospital management company. The state claimed that HRH shared commissions with Women’s Health USA Connecticut and steered clients to preferred brokers to win bigger commissions. State law forbids rebating by brokers to clients. Women’s Health Connecticut has denied it received rebates or shared commissions. The settlement indicates that HRH’s Hartford office disguised the deals


Sep
1

More on Katrina’s impact on insurance costs

New information indicates the impact of Katrina on the insurance industry will likely be greater than originally forecast. Post-storm flooding throughout the area, and related damage to commercial businesses and private property appears likely to drive insured claims for Katrina over $17 billion to perhaps $25 billion.
In addition, the Federally run flood insurance program will take a big hit. The program, which is already underfunded (it had to borrow $300 million last year from the Treasury to cover claims from Ivan et al), provides flood insurance totaling $600 billion to 4.5 million properties, primarily in coastal areas. Expect flood rates to increase significantly and soon.
The higher claims costs and the growing recognition in the insurance community of the potential for another devastating natural or man-caused disaster will drive up insurance costs for all lines of property and casualty coverage. While some uninformed pundits contend that the only cost increases will be borne by those in areas directly affected by the storm, they fail to realize that reinsurance rates industry-wide will increase, and insurers seeking to recoup losses will have to increase prices in other, non-related lines.
What does this mean for you?
The result – the softening in the property and casualty market will likely taper off, prices will stabilize somewhat, and all of us will end up paying for Katrina.
But that’s why they call it insurance.


Sep
1

What’s up with Case’s Revolution Health?

Not much new has come out about Revolution Health, Steve Case’s effort to bring consumerism, education, information, and innovative insurance products to the world of health care. Since the splash of the initial announcement two months ago, the silence has been noticeable, despite the inclusion of such notables as Colin Powell, Jim Barksdale, Steve Wiggins, and Frank Raines.
A front page for a website exists, although it indicates it is coming in 2004. Beyond that, nothing beyond a few brief follow ups to the initial USAToday article.
While it is somewhat of a mystery why there would be such a big splash followed by dead calm, perhaps it is due to the difficulty Case might be having in coming up with a business that actually adds real value. Because all the information to date does not describe a business that is materially different, compelling, or even very interesting.
According to an article on Revolution Health authored by the conservative Heartland Institute;
“RHG plans to acquire controlling interests in promising, innovative health care companies and build them for long-term growth.
Areas to be developed include affordable nurse-provided care at retail locations; health information to help people find a doctor or other health care provider and to learn more about medical issues and conditions; tools for managing health care finances, especially to help small and mid-sized employers help their employees; secure, easy-to-use personal health records; and innovative health coverage offering consumers new choices in how to pay for their health care.
“We will put consumers back in the center of the system by giving them more choice, control, and convenience while building the first comprehensive, consumer-driven health care company,” said Case.”
Leaving aside the obvious error – Definity Health and others have already laid claim to that hype-laden first – let’s deconstruct the business development plan.
1. Nurse provided care at retail locations – sounds like many ER departments, some occ health, company run, and local storefront clinics. Nurse care is almost always under the direction of a physician, and billing usually reflects physician charges. If Case has figured out how to have nurses work differently than they do today there may be something here. Otherwise, nothing new.
2. health information to learn more about conditions – that’s all consumers need, yet another site to go along with the 23 million websites that now offer health information. WebMD, the Centers for Disease Control, Kaiser, Aetna, Intelihealth, familydoctor.com and millions of other sources provide detailed information on everything from drug interactions to arthritis medication to cancer survival rates to new treatments for AIDS. That’s not to mention the thousands of web “businesses” based on health information that have failed over the past five years.
3. information to help consumers find a doctor or other health care provider – again, nothing new here – states are building extensive capabilities to report on hospital quality; health plans have long experience in this area; clinics, professional societies, commercial web sites, and the Yellow Pages all have a substantial head start, a customer base, and experience.
4. tools for managing health care finances for use by smaller employers – sounds like a combination of health information and insurance benefit plan design – yawn.
5. secure easy to use personal health records – Many already exist, including http://www.telemedical.com/records.html, http://www.phdtogo.com/ , your personal health record, and http://www.doctorsforpain.com/capmed.html. And some of these are free, targeted to specific patient populations, and gaining traction. For an excellent summary and more information, see http://www.myphr.com/,
6. new innovative health insurance programs – as much as I’d like to see something new and innovative, and as much press as these “consumer directed health plans” (CDHP) have generated, the reality is they are old wine in new bottles.
CDHPs are simply health insurance plans that marry old-line benefit design based on marrying high deductibles and co-pays with newer HMO delivery systems, coupled with a tax-advantaged personal health account. What’s innovative here? Not the cost-sharing, the delivery system, or the tax-advantaged account, nor the combination of all three.
At their core, CDHPs are cost-shifting from employers and other payers to the insureds. I don’t say that as a value judgment but simply state the facts. They are a reaction to employers’ frustration; after twenty years of HMOs, POS plans, capitated programs, closed and open panels, PBMs, PPOs, and the rest of the answers in the form of managed care, employers adopting these programs are throwing up their hands and saying we just can’t afford double digit increases, so employees will have to pay more.
So let’s stop all the hype and nonsense, and call them what they are. CDHPs are simply a way to get employees to pay more for their health care. And given health care trend rates, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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