Despite the foaming at the mouth, gnashing of teeth and rending of hair by Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and the rest of the attack-dog right, the presumptive GOP Presidential nominee is John McCain. Unless he steps in front of a (literal) train the Arizona Senator is it.
For voters unconcerned about health care, and generally Republican in orientation, McCain wins.
But a good chunk of GOP voters are in favor of significant health care reform. As I noted in a post last month, fully 65% would support reform that helped reduce the number of uninsured.
Another poll, from last June, broke the GOP respondents into several groups. “Moralists” were the largest single group, accounting for 24% of all Republicans. Among the ‘moralists’, 48% were in favor of universal coverage. This segment is predominantly Born Again or Evangelical, poorer than the average, and disproportionately female.
13% of those polled were identified as “government knows best” Republicans. The GKB folks were typically female and McCain fans, and fully 93% were supportive of universal coverage.
The third group, ‘Heartland’ Republicans (also 13%), were also McCain backers. Predominantly midwesterners, 72% supported universal coverage.
McCain has his issues with the religious wing of the GOP, and they certainly have issues with him. The Senator’s ‘non-reform reform plan’ will do little to strengthen his case with this large bloc.
Looking at the electoral map, McCain has to win big in the midwest – the home of the Heartland folks. He also has to hold onto as many female voters as possible. Again, his reform plank does nothing to help his cause with midwestern Republicans, much less female midwesterners.
Polls can be misleading, old, or just plain wrong. But it is clear that a substantial portion of the GOP faithful want health care fixed. While Obama’s plan falls short of universal coverage, it represents a much more comprehensive answer than McCain’s. And Clinton’s universal coverage requirement is obvious enough even to the most casual voter.
The GOP is in rough shape heading into this election. Iraq, the economy, corruption, and arrogance are all going to dog McCain. If the economy continues to deteriorate and more lose their jobs and health coverage, McCain is going to find himself on the wrong side of an issue critical to many in his base.
But his opponent will have a decidedly stronger message.
Feb
18
