Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

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Jan
19

The cost – or savings – of repealing reform

Well, the GOP says repealing health reform will save $700 billion, while Nancy Pelosi (D CA) says it reform will save $1.3 trillion. Who’s right?
Surprise!
Neither.

FactCheck’s take is the CBO’s projection that repealing reform would add $230 billion to the deficit is the best available. The CBO itself says that’s just an estimate. But it’s the best we have.
What’s the basis for the politico’s claims? Pelosi’s basing her number on CBO’s estimate 20 years out – a looooong time from now, and one so far away as to be beyond nebulous. , something the agency says is an imprecise and uncertain calculation. That, and she’s spinning; there’s no ‘savings’ but rather is actually a reduction in the projected federal deficit.
The GOP’s claim that “the bill would add over $700 billion in red ink over the next decade,”? FactCheck said we “judge it to be mostly bogus.”
Boehner et al contend that about 400 billion dollars in the CBO’s Medicare savings are being “double-counted.” But,as FactCheck (and many others) have pointed out, CBO is simply not doing that.
Of the other $300+ billion in ‘costs’, there’s $200 billion for a permanent “doctor fix” to prevent a cut in Medicare payments to doctors. As many have pointed out, that’s completely separate from the bill – and oh, BTW, many Republicans endorse the “doctor fix” anyway.
The GOP also says reform’s administrative costs will be about $115 billion – that’s wildly inflated as well. CBO’s pegged these at about $15 billion over the next 10 years.

What does this mean for you?
Base your projections on the CBO. They’ve no axe to grind, unlike the pols.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

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