Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

May
10

What’s the fuss about the Part D “deadline”?

Listening to all the noise about the upcoming Part D enrollment deadline you’d think if you don’t sign up now you’ll never be able to. Nothing could be further from the truth.
For seniors who enroll in Part D after the “deadline”, their premiums will be increased by 1% for each month post-deadline. So, if the premium is $25.00 now, it will be $28.00 in a year. Now, I know many seniors live on fixed incomes, but the extra three bucks is not likely to break most individuals.
Especially when one considers the decision process seniors are going thru. They look at their drug bills today, see if they can save money by enrolling in Part D, and if they can, they do, and if they can’t, they don’t. And when they can save money by enrolling, they will.
Plan sellers could change their premiums between now and when a senior decides its finally worth it to enroll, but they can do that anyway.
So the deadline is not a “line in the sand”, but it sure makes for good press. It’s too bad that the mass media is not doing a better job of educating seniors about the soft deadline, instead choosing to create a false crisis.


May
8

There goes the middleman…

One of the more common complaints about insurance for small businesses, and actually for businesses of all sizes, but here we’re talking small ones, is the cost of administration. Premium billing, eligibility, enrollment, card and plan booklet issuance, underwriting and sales all add significant cost to the smaller employers’ already-pricey health insurance tab.
And that’s the main reason fewer and fewer small employers are offering health insurance, and fewer and fewer of their employees are signing up for insurance. As healthy employees decline coverage because they think they won’t need it, the sicker ones stick around, driving up claims costs and furthering the vicious circle that is today’s insurance cycle.
Costco has stepped into the fray, offering its “executive members” on the West Coast slightly cheaper health insurance through its stores. While the rates won’t make you think you’ve entered a time machine and been transported back to the sixties (or 2002, for that matter), the program does seem to be catching on. Over the last three years, membership in the big retailer’s plans has increased by 40% to 15,500 members in Nevada, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington.
Considering only 52% of small employers in Oregon offer health insurance to employees (and only 38% of those offer dependents and spouses coverage), Costco’s efforts won’t solve the health insurance coverage crisis any time soon. It does represent an interesting alternative, as the program reduces adminstrative expenses through automated underwriting, enrollment, and eligibility processes.
I tried out the enrollment process, and it is pretty simple and relatively quick. Rates don’t look too bad, if $541.00 per person for a company with an average age of 44 for single coverage aren’t “too bad”. (I can’t believe I just wrote that; we’re talking $6500 in annual premiums for single coverage!!)
What does this mean for you?
A smart business move by CostCo, which will be quite overmatched by macro factors making health insurance increasingly unaffordable for more and more small employers.
Fierce Healthcare gets the nod for tipping me off to the story.


May
8

Health Wonk Review May 4 (actually May 8) edition

My regular job took precedence over getting HWR out on time last week – apologies to those of you who have been sitting at your keyboards waiting eagerly for the latest edition to once again enter the bitstream.
This edition’s submissions range from the near-global to the very specific; they do share a common thread of (mostly) deep insight. So, enough from me and on to the musings of the health wonk-o-sphere…

Continue reading Health Wonk Review May 4 (actually May 8) edition


May
4

What P&C insurance industry exexs are thinking

The national conference of insurance agents’ annual legislative get together featured a panel comprised of CEOs and top execs at some of the nation’s leading property and casualty insurers.
The gentlemen discussed terrorism reinsurance and the need for a federal backstop, contingent commissions, state reinsuramce pools, and state v federal regulation. All interesting topics, but I’m most worried about something that doesn’t seem to have hit their radar.
Health care costs.
Yes, these guys are P&C insurers – they insure buildings, liability, the environment, cars, houses, businesses, boats and many other things. No, none of them are health plans per se. But they all are facing double-digit increases in the medical expense portion of their claims dollar, have been for years, and don’t seem to be paying attention.
In workers comp, over half of the claims dollar goes to medical care; for the largest insurers that’s about $1.5 billion annually. Auto insurers also pay a lot of medical expenses, as do medical malpractice carriers and liability insurers.
Yet the top execs don’t appear to give medical inflation and health care costs the same attention they give to TRIA, reinsurance pools, or state v. federal regulation.
Maybe that’s why their health care costs are going up so fast.


May
3

Insurers are waking up to bird flu’s potential

At last the insurance industry is starting to take notice of the potential financial impact of avian flu. And it’s not pretty.
“Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, simultaneously causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns at a time when insurers most need liquidity, and reduced staff and management productivity through the spreading of sickness among company personnel,” stated Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling.”
In contrast to the intellectual financial modeling of RMS, Risk and Insurance magazine published a timeline of a human-to-human transmissable flu scenario that is scarier than Freddie Krueger.
(I posted on the potential impact of avian flu on health and life insurers some weeks ago.)
For those readers really interested in the whole bird flu thing, there are two blogs that are really really good. Roy Poses et al at Health Care Renewal do an excellent job of sorting through the chaff to find the wheat. And the anonymous public health officials at Effect Measure are way in front of politicians on all aspects of this.


May
3

Presidente Quijote

The President’s health care “reform” package has been deader than Social Security reform for weeks, and yet Mr. Bush remains atop his charger, madly taking on windmills wherever he can find them. The latest tilting was spotted at the American Hospital Association meeting in Houston, wherein Mr. Bush once again called for more Health Spending Accounts, malpractice tort reform, increased investments in technology
Sen. Trent Lott (R MS) was seen yawning.
When Bush’s hometown paper and staunchest supporters both are less than positive about his so-called health care plan, it is truly dead.
Thank goodness.
Meanwhile, many states are taking control of their own destiny. One of the more intriguing efforts is West Virginia’s AccessWV program , which enables high-risk people to obtain insurance at somewhat affordable premiums, and by all accounts is working well. Although the premiums for AccessWV can be pretty high, the program is the best alternative for individuals and families unable to get coverage due to health conditions.


May
2

Enzi’s AHIP – the Deck Chair Rearrangement Act

I’m been somewhat skeptical about the Enzi AHIP bill, but in the spirit of fairness wanted to carefully evaluate the potential of the bill to address its main driver – the lack of affordable health insurance.
I’m even more skeptical now.
The growing trend to consolidation in the health insurance industry would likely be accelerated by the bill proposed by Sen. Mike Enzi (R) WY. Enzi’s bill would, among other things, strip out much of the states’ power to regulate health insurance, establish a uniform benefit plan, and end many of the restrictions on insurance underwriting. (this last will actually serve to increase the number of uninsured as they will not be able to meet strict underwriting guidelines)
Proponents of Enzi’s bill claim that it would enable small businesses to pool their buying power, thereby getting better deals from insurers. While that makes sense in a free market, the market for health insurance is anything but free. In fact, with most local markets dominated by a single carrier, I’m not clear as to how group buying will help any employer gain any pricing power.
The health insurance market has become an oligopoly, generally defined as a market where 4 or fewer sellers control more than 40% of the market. In reality, a study released by the American Medical Association and supported by a newly-released GAO report, clearly shows we have passed this benchmark and are now approaching monopoly status in many markets.
Of the 294 metro areas studied by the AMA, 56% were dominated by a single insurer who controlled over 50% of the market. In essentially all of the 294 markets one insurer had market share of at least 30%.
Nine states are dominated by a single health plan, one of the Blues, with over 50% market share. And this trend has accelerated considerably over the last four years.
My sense is that Enzi’s bill would do little to address the core problem of health care coverage – it is just unaffordable for many small businesses and their employees. Enzi et al seem to think that buying power alone will help solve the problem; clearly current market conditions make that argument moot.
What does this mean for you?
Yet another opportunity to study the process of furniture arrangement on the Titanic.


Apr
28

First Health’s workers comp – so far, so…mediocre

Coventry’s Q1 2006 earnings call did not provide any insights into the progress, results, or future of the workers comp sector. While WC accounts for over $200 million in revenue for the managed care company, it drives a disporportionate amount of profit (network business is really profitable, and a big chunk of their business is PPO for WC)
Here’s the historical perspective. Coventry Chairman Dale Wolf had previously suggested FH’s workers comp business would produce a $240 million top line in 2006. Given results to date, increasing price pressure on workers comp networks and bill review entities, and the growing likelihood that First Health will lose workers comp network business, I’d be surprised if FH produces anywhere close to $240 million in revenue. And, Q1 numbers don’t do anything to convince me otherwise.
Here’s the detail. Revenue for First Health’s workers comp in 2005 was $53.7 mm in Q1 (corrected for acquisition timing), $53.65 in Q2, $50.7 in Q3, $52.94 in Q4 and $51.43 in Q1 2006. Comparing this last quarter with the same quarter in the previous year, WC revenue dropped 4.3%. To hit $240 million for the year, FH will have to average $62.9 million per quarter for the remainder of the year. That’s a 21% increase per quarter over the prior year.
There are a couple other factors that aren’t helping. First, the ongoing search for a leader for the WC sector is well into its second year.
Second, there is considerable capital flowing into the WC managed care space from private equity firms and product development from mainstream health plan companies. The combination of innovative approaches to managing WC medical expense and the purchasing power of the Aetnas and UnitedHealthGroups will make this sector even tougher in coming quarters.
Meanwhile, specialty managed care companies are hollowing out network revenue from underneath as First Health customers increasingly turn to experts to manage PT, drugs, and radiology, as well as networks in individual states.


Apr
28

Coventry Q1 2006 earnings report

Coventry continues to deliver strong financial results across the board, with medical trend rates appearing to stabilize at about 8% and premium increases for Q1 somewhat above that rate. Overall membership growth is projected to be in the 1% – 3% range, with new employer customers are buying less-rich benefit plans and members at existing employer customers are shifting to less-rich plans (if multiple plan options are offered).
Part D sales efforts have been succesful, with 529,000 members enrolled to date, $180 million in revenue and margins somewhat better than expected. The growth was in part due to Coventry’s partnership with Medicare Supplement insurers, using the insurers as a distribution channel. Part of the $180 million was $50 million from CMS risk share payments.
The First Health business is producing the desired results although there has been strong pressure on the commercial plan part of FH. Revenues on the workers comp side were $51,425 million for the quarter, down slightly from the previous quarter’s $52,953 million. This is not unusual in the WC network and bill review business, as it tends to be somewhat cyclical.
Of note, Coventry Chairman Dale Wolf had previously suggested FH’s workers comp business would produce a $240 million top line in 2006. Given results to date, increasing price pressure on workers comp networks and bill review entities, and the growing likelihood that First Health will lose workers comp network business, I’d be surprised if FH produces anywhere close to $240 million in revenue.
Their failure to name a leader for the WC sector is not helping.
There were several questions about medical costs, trend rates, and drivers thereof. Uinlike other health plans, Coventry seems to be convinced that trend rates will not decrease, and will remain in the 8% range. When pressed to describe the positives and negatives, Coventry execs said that pharmacy is easier to address than in 2005 due to shift to generics, and biotech injectables continue to be problematic. On the big drivers, they see no big challenges with hospitals and physicians.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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