Its that time again, when I throw caution (and good sense) to the wind, polish up the crystal ball and
guess reveal what big things will happen in worker’s comp this year.
Off the diving board, and hope there’s water in the pool…
- The soft market continues…
And it won’t harden in 2023. Medical costs remain very much under control (with an exception), rates continue to drop, employment remains very strong (essential for return-to-work) and there’s lots of payers fighting for market share.
- Medical spend is NOT a problem – and will NOT be in 2023.
With a couple notable exceptions – to be covered in a future post – medical inflation will remain under control. In part this is driven by much lower drug spend and more specifically the continued decline in opioid spend. The latter has a big impact on claim closure and total medical spend.
- Behavioral health and its various iterations will gain a lot of traction.
More State Funds, carriers and TPAs will adopt BH programs, more patients will benefit, and more dollars will be spent. There’s a growing recognition that medical issues aren’t hindering “recovery” near as much as psycho-social ones. This is great/wonderful/long-needed and will really benefit patients and payers alike. Kudos to early adopters, and LETS GO to you laggards!
- One Call will be sold.
I keep forecasting this…and one day I’ll be right. It has to be this year. CEO Jay Krueger and colleagues have OCCM on a better track, but structural problems (i.e. declining claim volume) and internalization of One Call-type services by Sedgwick and others make the future…less than promising. Couple that with recent ratings actions by Moody’s and S&P and it’s time to do the deal.
- New technology will make its impact felt.
Wearables, chatbots (I HATE THEM), and Virtual Reality-driven care are three ways tech platforms/systems/things will significantly ramp up in ’23. Expect several large/mid-tier payers to adopt new tech in a major way – aka not just a small pilot.
Structural issues with health care (try to find a LCSW or Psych-trained counselor), lack of trained adjusters, and frustration with rising rehab expenses are all contributors.
Later this week – the other 5 predictions.